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Is everything falling apart?

nonzero.substack.com

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Re: Is everything falling apart?

#301
post #257

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> no one is trying to change sex or biological genders Except when they let men compete in women's sports. So if I have to choose between the new lefty version of gender, or what we had before, I'm going to choose the old way because it didn't result in comically ridiculous outcomes like that.

Granted, sports is a topic which we haven't really figured out yet. I'm also thinking about it a lot, how we could shape sports competitions, or if we leave the categorizations as they are etc. I don't have a definitive solution or answer to that. But - What you describe doesn't really happen that often and its made a bigger issue than it really is. Yes, it happens. Yes, some do seem to maliciously abuse it. Yes, we…

No post body was provided.

Re: Is everything falling apart?

#302

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are they still a minority? https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/joe-bidens-approval-... Yes, there is a clear political tribal alignment between the current "out-group" and skepticism of institutions, but the rise of that iconoclasm on the right seems to be correlating with its growth as a whole.

They aren't a minority. As of 2021, there are more Republicans than Democrats. https://news.gallup.com/poll/388781/political-party-preferen...

It's also worth remembering that unaffiliated is the largest group, and has been growing. Lots of partisans like to poopoo the idea that "independents" exist, and claim that they are just closet-partisans, but I don't buy it. Massive distrust of politicians and establishments is not something people are faking because they want to fake their stance on the internet.

Re: Is everything falling apart?

#303
post #257

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> no one is trying to change sex or biological genders Except when they let men compete in women's sports. So if I have to choose between the new lefty version of gender, or what we had before, I'm going to choose the old way because it didn't result in comically ridiculous outcomes like that.

Granted, sports is a topic which we haven't really figured out yet. I'm also thinking about it a lot, how we could shape sports competitions, or if we leave the categorizations as they are etc. I don't have a definitive solution or answer to that. But - What you describe doesn't really happen that often and its made a bigger issue than it really is. Yes, it happens. Yes, some do seem to maliciously abuse it. Yes, we…

Granted, sports is a topic which we haven't really figured out yet.

We figured it out long ago, and there were no problems before the gender studies majors got involved. Biological males and biological females should compete separately whenever there are significant physical differences between the sexes that affect outcomes. "Gender identity" is utterly irrelevant in this context.

Re: Is everything falling apart?

#304
post #211

I'd argue that the greater risk of things falling apart is economic rather than political. We've built our society on two near-ponzi schemes that are in danger of falling apart. The first is pension funds which are paid into by current workers to pay out for past workers. Pension funds inherently depend on population growth to avoid shortfalls. They rely on the fact that more people pay into them then take out from t…

Most of the folks I know in their 20s here in the NYC metro area assume they'll never be able to afford real estate.

Re: Is everything falling apart?

#305
Well if Malthusian scientists are to be believed then we only really have another couple of decades at best before the global population level causes society to collapse. So you could interpret recent events to be the first warning signs of that.

Personally I remain unconvinced of that, though. Or at least, it seems to me that humans have the unique benefit of being able to problem solve their way out of the issues related to population growth, at least for a while. We don't have to be gazelles grazing themselves to death or to act merely on selfish instinct.

Re: Is everything falling apart?

#306
post #265

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> They rely on the fact that more people pay into them then take out from them at any one time. This doesn't need to be a ponzi scheme though. Even if population size is stable, if people on average work longer than they are retired, they have to pay less than they receive, all things equal. A problem here has been that people get increasingly older, so they spend a larger percentage of their life being retired, maki…

The ponzi part of it is that current payers pay for current retirees. If the pension worked on a forced investment model where you paid into your own retirement and the money was invested for you that would be different. It would even be viable to say the money from those who died prematurely would be distributed to other users and it's possible to have the system generate more overall money for retirees than just wh…

All models are a ponzi that depend on a future generation doing labor. Retirement is ultimately a promise that someone will grow food and the other things you need/want. SS depends on the next generation being willing to pay, while stocks depend on the next generation willing to buy those stocks (or dividends because the company because the next generation bought things from it). Funds in a mattress depend on people wanting your cash.

Re: Is everything falling apart?

#307
post #228

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thank you for this comment. It's so exhausting hearing constant anti-trans rhetoric from all sorts of places that any support at all is nice to see. I am so tired of being a scapegoat and it's becoming terrifying because it doesn't seem to be slowing down. If anything, it seems like the world is becoming less tolerant. I frequently wonder where I can move -- if anywhere -- where my existence will not be questioned re…

Yeah, the thing which bothers me the most is that people don't even try to educate themselves. What do you think my reaction was, when I first heard of trans-people as a young teenager? Of course I laughed a bit and wondered why people think that genders are fictional and why a man would ever be able to be a woman. But with time I got more curious, educated myself, thought about it, and I think I understand it pretty…

> Yeah, the thing which bothers me the most is that people don't even try to educate themselves.

Nuance is really important. I mean, I even agree with some of the concerns from social conservatives about transitioning and self-identification and "social contagions" and such. We should try to understand as well as we can, and not push anything on people they may not have felt themselves. It's important to not tell someone they're trans, pushing an identity onto them. There are discussions to be had.

... At the same time, though, that's not the whole story, as some social conservatives would have one believe, and those are not a reason to dismiss trans people. I remember having "gender dysphoria" feelings from a young age. It wasn't about dresses, or barbies, or whatever. I was uncomfortable taking my shirt off to go swimming, assuming my chest was more like my mother's or sister's than my father's or brother's. My genitals just seemed foreign to me. It got worse through puberty as these "male" features became more real.

If you'd thrown me on a deserted island with no culture, I would've still had gender dysphoria.

How do we make life comfortable for people who share in my experience? How do we make puberty less traumatic and do as much as we can to help them feel "normal"? These are questions that social conservatives dismiss as not real problems, but they were real problems for me.

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> What do you think my reaction was, when I first heard of trans-people as a young teenager?

When I was a teenager, there was no talk of trans people, anywhere. It was an unheard of topic. I still had the feelings I did.

When I first heard of them when I was a little older (~20), it was amazing to finally know I wasn't alone in the feelings I shared. I booked an appointment with a licensed mental health therapist the next month to talk about it. On the rise of awareness of trans people, I thought, "Good! They won't have to go through quite what I went through." Today, I worry they're worse off than it being unknown like it was for me.

What ended up making me feel notably better was estrogen. It was strange how well it worked, although I still had distress over my physical features until I was fully transitioned. Now that I am... my gender dysphoria is cured. I still enjoy the same hobbies, listen to the same music, read the same books, play the same video games, and even dress in a similar style. I just don't have distress over my physical features anymore. Like getting treated for any other medical issue, the treatment made the issues I experienced go away. Now the only time I feel distress is when I hear people calling for the death of trans people or blaming societal ills on us.

I don't know why I'm writing all of this, so I'm going to stop here.

---

> so all I can do is try to be empathic.

I really appreciate it. All of us do. It means a lot.

> I wish you all the strength you need, don't give up!

Thanks!

Re: Is everything falling apart?

#308
post #228

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, the thing which bothers me the most is that people don't even try to educate themselves. What do you think my reaction was, when I first heard of trans-people as a young teenager? Of course I laughed a bit and wondered why people think that genders are fictional and why a man would ever be able to be a woman. But with time I got more curious, educated myself, thought about it, and I think I understand it pretty…

Quoted post unavailable.

> most 'trans women' keep their penises intact, and continue to enjoy using them as a man would. These are men with a sexual fetish, not women.

Disagree, fully. Thinking that genitals define your social gender is exactly the wrong thing to do. If a Trans-Woman wants to keep her genitals as they are, then she should, and this doesn't have an effect on her gender.

If she wants to undergo surgery - fine.

Saying that Trans-Women who "keep their penises" are just men with a sexual fetish is in my opinion a very wrong and mean opinion to have.

Re: Is everything falling apart?

#309
post #211

I'd argue that the greater risk of things falling apart is economic rather than political. We've built our society on two near-ponzi schemes that are in danger of falling apart. The first is pension funds which are paid into by current workers to pay out for past workers. Pension funds inherently depend on population growth to avoid shortfalls. They rely on the fact that more people pay into them then take out from t…

> They rely on the fact that more people pay into them then take out from them at any one time. This doesn't need to be a ponzi scheme though. Even if population size is stable, if people on average work longer than they are retired, they have to pay less than they receive, all things equal. A problem here has been that people get increasingly older, so they spend a larger percentage of their life being retired, maki…

Raising the retirement age I think is not fair. Asking guys in their 60’s to do the same work as guys in their 40’s is not fair if the job is at all a hands on doing job. Anything as simple as a big flight of stairs can become a major obstacle. If all you do is go up and down elevators, talk, and use a computer then you can go as long as your mind stays sharp and you have the drive. Not everyone loves their job after doing it for 30+ years and would like to slow down just to appreciate the people and world around them for their remaining time.

Re: Is everything falling apart?

#310
post #211

I'd argue that the greater risk of things falling apart is economic rather than political. We've built our society on two near-ponzi schemes that are in danger of falling apart. The first is pension funds which are paid into by current workers to pay out for past workers. Pension funds inherently depend on population growth to avoid shortfalls. They rely on the fact that more people pay into them then take out from t…

US real estate has gone up significantly in _desirable_ markets. There are plenty of cities in the rust belt where neighborhoods are in decay, you can buy a home for 20k if you wanted.

What we’re going to see is either govts incentivize people move back to these places. Or more housing in desirable locations. I think the former will happen more than the later.

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