181–190 of 345 posts
Earlier quoted context omitted.
According to studies, it only takes 3.5% of a population revolting to foment a successful revolution. I'd argue we're approaching that figure. Might take a few more years, but I could see it in the US in our lifetimes. https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20190513-it-only-takes-35...
I’m skeptical. For one example - more than 3.5 percent of the Hong Kong population showed up for a single protest , but the leviathan power still prevailed.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
>Always wondering exactly what people mean when they talk of "civil unrest", and who and how will it start. Do the various riots in 2020 America or the Jan 6 storming of the capitol count? A whole lotta people, mostly outside the HN demographics, are real pissed off about a decade of public policy that has amounted to making their lives worse and worse at every juncture and now it's finally getting to the point where…
It's been a lot longer than a decade. Reagan kicked off the looting of the middle-class in the 80s, and both parties officially adopted that policy by the mid-90s, almost 30 years ago. It takes a long time to drive an airplane as big as the US into the ground, but we're finally starting to see the tires hitting the ground now.
> Reagan kicked off the looting of the middle-class in the 80s, and both parties officially adopted that policy by the mid-90s, almost 30 years ago.
The fact the Fed is even contemplating a rate hike tells me they're misreading what's going on. The inflation we're seeing isn't a result of a hot economy needing to be kept in check, it's the fact that 40% of China's production is on lockdown and just about every product made, regardless of where it's made, is relying on part(s) coming from China. Supply is constrained and therefore prices are rising. Likewise, supp…
The fact the Fed is even contemplating a rate hike tells me they're misreading what's going on. The inflation we're seeing isn't a result of a hot economy needing to be kept in check, it's the fact that 40% of China's production is on lockdown and just about every product made, regardless of where it's made, is relying on part(s) coming from China. Supply is constrained and therefore prices are rising. Likewise, supp…
Irrespective of the source, the Fed rate hike (well, and QT, which it is expected to also deploy) is the only tool it has available to deal with inflation, which is still, for now, the bigger problem from the perspective of it's mandate.
The fact that (possibly transitory if policy were neutral) slowdown is occurring while the Fed is taking that action, though, means it is especially critical for Congress to take fiscal action to fine tune the impacts or there is a very high risk of recession occurring before inflation is controlled, producing a period of stagflation which is both tremendously painful across the economy and very difficult to escape from.
The problem is Congress is basically asleep at the switch on economic policy.
Given that the economy grew 6.9% previous quarter, over the past two quarters, the US economy is growing at an annual rate of 5.5% - which is very high.
If you average 6.9% and -1.4% (which is close to being a valid procedure, since the numbers are fairly small), you get 2.75%, not 5.5%.
The fact the Fed is even contemplating a rate hike tells me they're misreading what's going on. The inflation we're seeing isn't a result of a hot economy needing to be kept in check, it's the fact that 40% of China's production is on lockdown and just about every product made, regardless of where it's made, is relying on part(s) coming from China. Supply is constrained and therefore prices are rising. Likewise, supp…
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL
The inflation we're experiencing now is a lagging indicator of the massive stimulus of 2 years ago.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
"stopped building new homes" is clearly an exaggeration, but the spirit of the comment is spot on. Housing starts did collapse around '08, and only returned to the historical average in ~2021. Even so, we're still producing fewer units than we were producing in the 70's--when the population was ~60% of what it is now! How can there be any doubt that this production glut has played a huge role in the rise of housing p…
> we're still producing fewer units than we were producing in the 70's--when the population was ~60% of what it is now The population was growing around 1.1% a year in the 70s; it was 0.75% the last decade and is currently between 0.1% and 0.25% [1]. [1] https://united-states.reaproject.org/analysis/comparative-in...
You also need to consider the fact that household sizes are trending downwards pretty consistently, so there needs to be more houses for the same number of people.