U.S. economy shrank at a 1.4% annual rate in the first quarter • Hacker News Board

Re: U.S. economy shrank at a 1.4% annual rate in the first quarter

#101

Post by chii » Thu, Apr 28, 2022, 2:30 PM UTC

bitcurious wrote: post #78

taylodl wrote: post #55

The fact the Fed is even contemplating a rate hike tells me they're misreading what's going on. The inflation we're seeing isn't a result of a hot economy needing to be kept in check, it's the fact that 40% of China's production is on lockdown and just about every product made, regardless of where it's made, is relying on part(s) coming from China. Supply is constrained and therefore prices are rising. Likewise, supp…

In my neck of the woods, by far the largest and most impactful inflation has been in the housing sector - 50% price inflation over the past two years. This is entirely attributable to the Fed's pumping of soft assets like stocks, leading to a bunch of paper millionaires cashing out.

> a bunch of paper millionaires cashing out [to buy property]

so what did the seller of those property spend their profits on?

Re: U.S. economy shrank at a 1.4% annual rate in the first quarter

#102

Post by incomingpain » Thu, Apr 28, 2022, 2:31 PM UTC

altacc wrote: post #35

incomingpain wrote: post #2

GDP: -1.4% DOW: -8.36% YTD S&P500: -12.22% YTD NASDAQ: -20.17% YTD Inflation: 8.5% Interest rate: 0.5%(increasing once by 0.25%) Balance of trade: $-89.2B >they still think the Fed will be able to rein in inflation without triggering a recession. It was raised once and everything is collapsing underneath. Don't know how you look at all this and think 'it'll be fine'. There's a general rule that this kind of behaviour…

From a non-US perspective, it seems that a lot of Americans are quick to conclude that a civil war is around the corner, even on HN where one would hope for a more nuanced analysis. There can't be that many boogaloo boys on this forum, so I wonder how common this narrative is in the US at the moment to make it a go-to conclusion. Is it really common to hear talk of this in the US? From what I see of human nature, mos…

>From a non-US perspective, it seems that a lot of Americans are quick to conclude that a civil war is around the corner, even on HN where one would hope for a more nuanced analysis. There can't be that many boogaloo boys on this forum, so I wonder how common this narrative is in the US at the moment to make it a go-to conclusion. Is it really common to hear talk of this in the US?

Ive stepped on a hornets nest in my comment quite negatively voted.

I too am a non-US perspective and 'boogaloo boys' aren't going to be a major factor at all.

>From what I see of human nature, most people are willing to accept a good deal of change and discomfort before they are willing to jeopardise their relatively stable & comfortable lives (relative compared to countries where you actually see armed uprisings, revolutions & civil war).

Never in my life have I seen polarization so bad. According to what I read the only ever time it was this bad was the first civil war.

You know what's weird. I predicted there would be self-immolations similar to arab spring and we are getting it. Black, incel, and environmentalist self-immolations in the USA. https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/us/activist-s-self-immolation...

I even imagine as well. Lets say midterms happen and there's a clean sweep by the democrats. What happens?

How about the republicans sweep the election?

Re: U.S. economy shrank at a 1.4% annual rate in the first quarter

#103

Post by suetoniusp91 » Thu, Apr 28, 2022, 2:31 PM UTC

incomingpain wrote: post #64

boringg wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you are living too deep in your fears - lots of doom and gloom here. There isn't anything relative to a food shortage about to happen in the US and certainly we aren't on the cusp of a civil war. DC is actually less acrimonious than it was. The equity market is not the economy and a lot of the financial websites make money on hyping up the latest quarterly numbers. Are there concerns here? Yes, there always a…

Quoted post unavailable.

Go out and touch some grass. Sitting at a computer screen and reading about the world creates a warped reality. Live life don't read about it

Re: U.S. economy shrank at a 1.4% annual rate in the first quarter

#104

Post by cloutchaser » Thu, Apr 28, 2022, 2:31 PM UTC

shadowgovt wrote: post #74

pjc50 wrote: post #49

Always wondering exactly what people mean when they talk of "civil unrest", and who and how will it start. Do the various riots in 2020 America or the Jan 6 storming of the capitol count? On the other hand, Elon Musk Twitter purchase: $44bn. There's plenty of money out there still. I think it's unlikely that merely raising rates will do anything, for two reasons: firstly there's a real need to do some fiscal policy a…

> Do the various riots in 2020 America or the Jan 6 storming of the capitol count? They do. So does Occupy Wall Street. It's actually been a little over a decade of people of many political stripes having the general impression that there's a significant disconnect between the will of the elected officials and the will of the people. People disagree about root causes and remedies.

I'm pretty sure politicians prefer BLM and Jan 6 riots to occupy.

Because occupy actually got at the root of the problem... The other two are distractions.

Re: U.S. economy shrank at a 1.4% annual rate in the first quarter

#105

Post by chii » Thu, Apr 28, 2022, 2:31 PM UTC

chottocharaii wrote: post #81

taylodl wrote: post #55

The fact the Fed is even contemplating a rate hike tells me they're misreading what's going on. The inflation we're seeing isn't a result of a hot economy needing to be kept in check, it's the fact that 40% of China's production is on lockdown and just about every product made, regardless of where it's made, is relying on part(s) coming from China. Supply is constrained and therefore prices are rising. Likewise, supp…

All inflation is a direct consequence of monetary policy

not sure of you can categorically claim this - why did inflation in the 70's oil crisis happen?

Re: U.S. economy shrank at a 1.4% annual rate in the first quarter

#106

Post by chii » Thu, Apr 28, 2022, 2:32 PM UTC

onlyrealcuzzo wrote: post #60

taylodl wrote: post #55

The fact the Fed is even contemplating a rate hike tells me they're misreading what's going on. The inflation we're seeing isn't a result of a hot economy needing to be kept in check, it's the fact that 40% of China's production is on lockdown and just about every product made, regardless of where it's made, is relying on part(s) coming from China. Supply is constrained and therefore prices are rising. Likewise, supp…

Durable goods make up ~20% of the US economy at best (~12.7% on average according to the Cleveland Fed [1]). Food, energy, & financing are >50% of the US economy. The rest of the economy is primarily services - which have very little impact from the supply of screws & toasters coming out of China going down. [1] https://www.clevelandfed.org/en/newsroom-and-events/publicat... .

most services require some material goods associated with the service. Even if wages aren't raised, those materials would cause prices to rise.

Re: U.S. economy shrank at a 1.4% annual rate in the first quarter

#107

Post by lumost » Thu, Apr 28, 2022, 2:33 PM UTC

chottocharaii wrote: post #81

taylodl wrote: post #55

The fact the Fed is even contemplating a rate hike tells me they're misreading what's going on. The inflation we're seeing isn't a result of a hot economy needing to be kept in check, it's the fact that 40% of China's production is on lockdown and just about every product made, regardless of where it's made, is relying on part(s) coming from China. Supply is constrained and therefore prices are rising. Likewise, supp…

All inflation is a direct consequence of monetary policy

Or is it? we really have very few experiments to determine this. War can certainly cause both inflation, and deflation. While monetary policy can adapt to an extent, it's unclear that it's the primary driver of inflation in all circumstances.

Re: U.S. economy shrank at a 1.4% annual rate in the first quarter

#108

Post by AYBABTME » Thu, Apr 28, 2022, 2:33 PM UTC

usrn wrote: post #66

dntrkv wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you’re confusing people’s online rhetoric with their IRL interactions. If there was no civil war after 2008, there sure as hell won’t be one this time when people are doing better by most metrics. American’s financial situations are actually quite good right now. Everybody is just anxious as fuck, for many reasons.

An odd thing to say after people spent the last couple summers burning things down

I walk and drive around and don't see much burning.

Re: U.S. economy shrank at a 1.4% annual rate in the first quarter

#109

Post by guggleet » Thu, Apr 28, 2022, 2:33 PM UTC

usrn wrote: post #66

dntrkv wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you’re confusing people’s online rhetoric with their IRL interactions. If there was no civil war after 2008, there sure as hell won’t be one this time when people are doing better by most metrics. American’s financial situations are actually quite good right now. Everybody is just anxious as fuck, for many reasons.

An odd thing to say after people spent the last couple summers burning things down

Things were fine in my locality, and in the vast majority of localities across the country.

Re: U.S. economy shrank at a 1.4% annual rate in the first quarter

#110

Post by s1artibartfast » Thu, Apr 28, 2022, 2:33 PM UTC

BitwiseFool wrote: post #8

MaysonL wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> food scarcity How much food rotted at the Texas border after Governor Abbott's PR stunt held it up? Estimated to be over $4Billion.

Something about that $4 Billion figure seems exaggerated, intangible, or simply an on-paper calculation. Assuming a truck carrying food is 6 hours late, how much spoilage does that actually cause? Would a pileup on an interstate causing an hours long delay likewise have its "impact" calculated to be in the tens of millions?

I don't know about fruit, but nuts like pistachios will spoil after 12 hours in a truck. You have a finite time before picking and processing before they rot, and a tractor trailer is about the worst environment as the the load can cook itself from the waste heat of biological activity in a large poorly ventilated volume.