U.S. economy shrank at a 1.4% annual rate in the first quarter • Hacker News Board

Re: U.S. economy shrank at a 1.4% annual rate in the first quarter

#111

Post by riku_iki » Thu, Apr 28, 2022, 2:34 PM UTC

neffy wrote: post #84

taylodl wrote: post #55

The fact the Fed is even contemplating a rate hike tells me they're misreading what's going on. The inflation we're seeing isn't a result of a hot economy needing to be kept in check, it's the fact that 40% of China's production is on lockdown and just about every product made, regardless of where it's made, is relying on part(s) coming from China. Supply is constrained and therefore prices are rising. Likewise, supp…

Yes it's the perfect storm for economic theories... increases in the money supply and actual product shortages both causing inflation at the same time. Meanwhile increasing interest rates are in a nasty intersection with banks and other lenders stuck with low interest 30 year loans on their books, which make them very vulnerable to any new lenders. definitely popcorn time.

> with low interest 30 year loans

Are those loans supported by other low interest loans they took themself?

Re: U.S. economy shrank at a 1.4% annual rate in the first quarter

#112

Post by unmole » Thu, Apr 28, 2022, 2:34 PM UTC

lumost wrote: post #92

altacc wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From a non-US perspective, it seems that a lot of Americans are quick to conclude that a civil war is around the corner, even on HN where one would hope for a more nuanced analysis. There can't be that many boogaloo boys on this forum, so I wonder how common this narrative is in the US at the moment to make it a go-to conclusion. Is it really common to hear talk of this in the US? From what I see of human nature, mos…

The January 6th event brought tensions to a high point, and caused many Americans on the liberal side to rethink how they approach those on the right. The event left many Americans fearful of a violent attempt to subvert the democratic process, with those on the right believing that their votes weren't counted. With a paralyzed legislative body, tensions are likely to grow in the future as the government fails to del…

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_incidents_of_political....

Re: U.S. economy shrank at a 1.4% annual rate in the first quarter

#113

Post by klyrs » Thu, Apr 28, 2022, 2:35 PM UTC

chii wrote: post #101

bitcurious wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In my neck of the woods, by far the largest and most impactful inflation has been in the housing sector - 50% price inflation over the past two years. This is entirely attributable to the Fed's pumping of soft assets like stocks, leading to a bunch of paper millionaires cashing out.

> a bunch of paper millionaires cashing out [to buy property] so what did the seller of those property spend their profits on?

More expensive real estate

Re: U.S. economy shrank at a 1.4% annual rate in the first quarter

#114

Post by cloutchaser » Thu, Apr 28, 2022, 2:35 PM UTC

dntrkv wrote: post #61

usrn wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People got along a lot better with their neighbors in the 80s than they do now.

I think you’re confusing people’s online rhetoric with their IRL interactions. If there was no civil war after 2008, there sure as hell won’t be one this time when people are doing better by most metrics. American’s financial situations are actually quite good right now. Everybody is just anxious as fuck, for many reasons.

I think the actions taken in 2008 delayed the effects until... now.

All the insane stuff that's happening and will happen is the hangover of not having a depression in 2008 and delaying it by printing money and propping up banks.

But you can't delay the inevitable.

Re: U.S. economy shrank at a 1.4% annual rate in the first quarter

#115

Post by JohnWhigham » Thu, Apr 28, 2022, 2:35 PM UTC

usrn wrote: post #66

dntrkv wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you’re confusing people’s online rhetoric with their IRL interactions. If there was no civil war after 2008, there sure as hell won’t be one this time when people are doing better by most metrics. American’s financial situations are actually quite good right now. Everybody is just anxious as fuck, for many reasons.

An odd thing to say after people spent the last couple summers burning things down

I recommend you stop watching CNN and thinking that's the entire country

Re: U.S. economy shrank at a 1.4% annual rate in the first quarter

#116

Post by onlyrealcuzzo » Thu, Apr 28, 2022, 2:36 PM UTC

chii wrote: post #106

onlyrealcuzzo wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Durable goods make up ~20% of the US economy at best (~12.7% on average according to the Cleveland Fed [1]). Food, energy, & financing are >50% of the US economy. The rest of the economy is primarily services - which have very little impact from the supply of screws & toasters coming out of China going down. [1] https://www.clevelandfed.org/en/newsroom-and-events/publicat... .

most services require some material goods associated with the service. Even if wages aren't raised, those materials would cause prices to rise.

The vast majority of "services" in the US are healthcare, food services, technology, and financial services.

Aside from cloud hardware, the impact on the rest due to supply constraints from China has been extremely minimal.

Very little food comes from China. Almost 0 energy. And financing costs are 100% set by the Fed.

China plays a very small part in the US inflation story.

Re: U.S. economy shrank at a 1.4% annual rate in the first quarter

#117

Post by incomingpain » Thu, Apr 28, 2022, 2:37 PM UTC

paywallasinbeer wrote: post #30

incomingpain wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-24/biden-say... In terms of farmers retiring with a non-zero reduction of food produced but also farmers in north america getting more $ to ship their food overseas. In addition to food inflation pushing food prices up to unaffordable levels. I agree with biden, food shortages will be happening.

That seems like an odd mismatch between Biden and Psaki. Do you think it's possible Biden was speaking about the World, more specifically Europe, and Psaki was speaking about the US? If not, I am curious as to why you think there is a mismatch between them on this issue. Non paywall link to that article: https://archive.ph/Rbnv4

There has been quite a few examples of Biden saying something and the white house backpedaling on the comment.

It's a very real issue that lots of people beyond Biden have commented on.

Ukraine does produce significant food/calories. This is almost certainly going to be bad for europe.

I made the obvious case about what might happen soon. I am happy to believe Psaki is the one who is wrong. Which is not really difficult to believe given trackrecord.

Re: U.S. economy shrank at a 1.4% annual rate in the first quarter

#118

Post by dntrkv » Thu, Apr 28, 2022, 2:38 PM UTC

incomingpain wrote: post #72

dntrkv wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oh yeah, remember the civil war of 1982? When inflation was 14% and The Fed raised rates to purposefully start a recession? Give me a break, we’ve been through much worse. Let’s stop with the FUD please.

>Oh yeah, remember the civil war of 1982? When inflation was 14% and The Fed raised rates to purposefully start a recession? High inflation and raising rates going into a recession is not going to trigger a civil war or even really unrest in any major way. >Give me a break, we’ve been through much worse. Let’s stop with the FUD please. political polarization in the usa has never been so bad except for ...

And? Do you think Americans are willing to give up everything they have and start warring with each other? Because a civil war will mean exactly that. You think inflation is bad, civil war would crater the economy like no modern-American has ever experienced.

Americans don’t even want to give up their private healthcare, and y’all talking about civil war.

Re: U.S. economy shrank at a 1.4% annual rate in the first quarter

#119

Post by free » Thu, Apr 28, 2022, 2:38 PM UTC

taylodl wrote: post #55

The fact the Fed is even contemplating a rate hike tells me they're misreading what's going on. The inflation we're seeing isn't a result of a hot economy needing to be kept in check, it's the fact that 40% of China's production is on lockdown and just about every product made, regardless of where it's made, is relying on part(s) coming from China. Supply is constrained and therefore prices are rising. Likewise, supp…

That's one thing that India got right in response to Covid. The primary focus of the stimulus to alleviate the supply side constraints[1][2].

Many were questioning the approach of focusing on supply side, making small changes, observing and reacting instead of a big mega stimulus the likes of USA did. Good to see some merit in India.

[1]https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/policy/wai...

[2]https://twitter.com/sanjeevsanyal/status/1461787145027338245

Re: U.S. economy shrank at a 1.4% annual rate in the first quarter

#120

Post by throwaway0a5e » Thu, Apr 28, 2022, 2:40 PM UTC

krapp wrote: post #99

throwaway0a5e wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Always wondering exactly what people mean when they talk of "civil unrest", and who and how will it start. Do the various riots in 2020 America or the Jan 6 storming of the capitol count? A whole lotta people, mostly outside the HN demographics, are real pissed off about a decade of public policy that has amounted to making their lives worse and worse at every juncture and now it's finally getting to the point where…

>A whole lotta people, mostly outside the HN demographics, are real pissed off about a decade of public policy that has amounted to making their lives worse and worse at every juncture and now it's finally getting to the point where ends are hard to meet. They had four years under Trump threatening the city-dwellers and neo-liberals, a literal armed rioting mob, sympathy within the government and law enforcement and…

>If they couldn't make it happen then, when all of the stars were aligned and the winds of populist ferver were at their backs, I don't think anything more than an occasional riot is going to happen in the future.

Gas was cheap and shelves were full then.