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Rocket Mortgage to trim 8% of workforce as home-loan market shrinks

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Re: Rocket Mortgage to trim 8% of workforce as home-loan market shrinks

#101

Buying a home mortgage is signing yourself over to a lifetime of servitude and uncertainty if you lose your income stream. Buy a property out of pocket to live in and make the most of a DIY life at a fraction of the cost and an odd stress differential, or just keep renting and be agile enough to roll with the punches.

Getting a mortgage is the easiest way to build wealth through government subsidized leverage (mortgage interest deduction).

There are 3 good replies to this one giving a decent analysis for why I might want to reconsider my position. It's hard to pick which one to answer to.

Would you say that mortgage is probably driven down 8% because just can't afford the down payment anymore, or people like me who seem to have an irrational aversion to it?

Re: Rocket Mortgage to trim 8% of workforce as home-loan market shrinks

#102
post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you have missed a source of demand, and I think it's important. As housing became more and more expensive to young professionals, some people in this group have worked harder and harder to buy property, even to the point where it no longer seems rational. For example, parents taking a lot of wealth out of their retirement savings or their own homes to assist children in buying. Professionals are working more…

I did not miss those people, but my wording was loaded and so the point got lost in translation. I implicitly captured them under b) "[...] it's dumb to buy estates where the price is set by people and institutions that have n times your own income/net worth" , where dumb is a loaded term for your > "to the point where it no longer seems rational" . > But crucially, the presence of this group of people arguably turns…

This is fair, you didn't miss those people. But I think it was worth me highlighting them because they are, as I argued, very important.

I somewhat agree with your argument. Housing costs more than other assets compared to its economic value, exactly because people have an emotional reaction to the idea of owning it - or the idea of not owning it.

However I have seen middle-class people overextend themselves to 'buy the dip', while their equally wealthy peers sit it out, for over 15 years now. Many of the people who did the former now consider themselves to have got a bargain, while many of the latter changed their minds and ended up buying several years later and at much higher prices.

I'm definitely not arguing that this makes buying right and renting wrong! Just that so far, this is how that choice played out.

Re: Rocket Mortgage to trim 8% of workforce as home-loan market shrinks

#103
post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t know about other places, but Airbnb has been a mixed bag for NYC: I’ve seen it used to keep housing stock off the market, to dodge the obligations associated with keeping a property livable, and to essentially run entire illegal hotel businesses without attracting regulatory (including safety) scrutiny.

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Re: Rocket Mortgage to trim 8% of workforce as home-loan market shrinks

#104
post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Whole-term-fixed rates are pretty uncommon in Europe. Fixes of 2, 5 sometimes 10 years are products most providers offer, but as the term increases, the rate shoots up, to offset rate uncertainty. My question is: why would you fix for 30yr when you know you're paying multiple points to offset market uncertainty? Remortgaging every couple of years takes a bit of time, and shopping around, but is much cheaper.

> My question is: why would you fix for 30yr when you know you're paying multiple points to offset market uncertainty? To fix your monthly payment for the next 30 years. Furthermore, with a fixed rate mortgage you can benefit from interest rate volatility since you can always buy back the debt at par. In practice this means you can: 1. Take out a fixed rate loan for $n at x% 2. If the rate doubles (to 2x%) you can re…

> To fix your monthly payment for the next 30 years.

Sure, but .. nothing else is fixed for those 30 years? Not your salary, the price of fuel, your place of work, life circumstances? And you're paying a premium at the start for this.

It's more apparent in the UK where you can choose how long you want the fix for and see the interest rate you're offered go up.

> you can benefit from interest rate volatility since you can always buy back the debt at par.

Obviously the bank knows this and charges you a small premium over the spot rate so they don't lose money.

> If the rate doubles (to 2x%) you can refinance and you now only owe half ($n/2)

I don't understand this: the amount outstanding - the redemption value - of a fixed rate mortgage is known in advance at every month throughout its term, regardless of what the market interest rate is?

Re: Rocket Mortgage to trim 8% of workforce as home-loan market shrinks

#105
post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you have missed a source of demand, and I think it's important. As housing became more and more expensive to young professionals, some people in this group have worked harder and harder to buy property, even to the point where it no longer seems rational. For example, parents taking a lot of wealth out of their retirement savings or their own homes to assist children in buying. Professionals are working more…

I did not miss those people, but my wording was loaded and so the point got lost in translation. I implicitly captured them under b) "[...] it's dumb to buy estates where the price is set by people and institutions that have n times your own income/net worth" , where dumb is a loaded term for your > "to the point where it no longer seems rational" . > But crucially, the presence of this group of people arguably turns…

> Going in debt for 30-40 years has zero appeal for me

Going into debt at the lowest interest rate you'll ever be offered to buy a leveraged asset that's likely to increase in price and reduce the overhead you pay on your largest expense, housing, and hedge against the risk of rent increases and security against the whims of landlords?

> Germany

Oh, Germany. Somehow Germany has escaped the constantly increasing house price effect, as has Japan.

If you owned a house in London its annual value increases would almost certainly out-earn your salary. And you don't have to pay tax on that.

Re: Rocket Mortgage to trim 8% of workforce as home-loan market shrinks

#106
post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> My question is: why would you fix for 30yr when you know you're paying multiple points to offset market uncertainty? To fix your monthly payment for the next 30 years. Furthermore, with a fixed rate mortgage you can benefit from interest rate volatility since you can always buy back the debt at par. In practice this means you can: 1. Take out a fixed rate loan for $n at x% 2. If the rate doubles (to 2x%) you can re…

Can you explain point 2? Why do you refinance if rates go up? Surely the point is that if rates go up you've locked in a better rate How does half your debt disappear if rates go up?

Sure.

> Why do you refinance if rates go up? Surely the point is that if rates go up you've locked in a better rate

You don't have to, but you can choose to either (a) keep the same rate and owe the same amount, or (b) get the new (higher) rate and owe less.

> How does half your debt disappear if rates go up?

It doesn't exactly. However, the market value of your mortgage loan halves if the rate doubles (roughly). This means you can:

1. Take out a loan for half the original amount, at double the interest rate

2. Buy back your original loan

3. Destroy the original loan (which is fine since you are both creditor and debtor for that loan)

This leaves you with the loan taken in step 1.

To understand why it works this way it's instructive to think of a loan as an exchange of wealth for income. One party has some savings (wealth) and would like to exchange it for an income (e.g. to pay recurring expenses). Another party has an income and would like to trade it for wealth (e.g. to buy a house). Viewing a loan in this way, the interest rate is nothing more than the current price of a certain income stream (measured in percent per year).

For example, let's assume that the current market price for an income of $2 per year is $100. This is equivalent to an interest rate of 2% per year. I have $100 that I'm willing to part with for an income of $2 per year, and you have an income of at least $2 per year that you're willing to sell for $100. We make the deal. Now, the day after we shake hands to make the deal, the current market price for an income of $2 per year falls to $50. This is equivalent to a doubling of the interest rate (from 2% per year to 4% per year). I still have the income of $2 per year that I paid $100 for yesterday, but if I want to sell this to someone else I can only get $50 for it. And if you were to ask me to buy back the loan for $50 I would have nothing against that, since I could go out immediately after and buy the same $2/year income for those $50.

Re: Rocket Mortgage to trim 8% of workforce as home-loan market shrinks

#107
post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean, it's not really a burst, we're just hearing the hissing noise of the obvious leak. The true demand from people with the intend to actually live in the estates has been constantly decreasing since around 2000; the real salarys dropped since then, so did the buying power. The only reasons people found buyers at x3-x10 (!) prices were a) that there is a class of people wealthy enough to still afford the purchase…

maybe one more interesting detail worth noting: c) private equity firms are buying up insane amounts of real estate, being able to outbid regular home buyers and (don’t quote me on this b/c I’m not 100% sure) pay cash for the properties they buy.

There have been a lot of headlines about this, and in the handful of markets I’m sure this has a price effect, but in the us market as a whole, they are $10b-$100b? of a ~25T market, it just doesn’t move the needle

Re: Rocket Mortgage to trim 8% of workforce as home-loan market shrinks

#108
For what it’s worth I used them to refi my house before the rates rose. The banker I got was amazing. She handled everything beautifully. The only thing they weren’t set up to handle was notarizing my loan while I was overseas. But we figured that out.

Re: Rocket Mortgage to trim 8% of workforce as home-loan market shrinks

#109
post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I did not miss those people, but my wording was loaded and so the point got lost in translation. I implicitly captured them under b) "[...] it's dumb to buy estates where the price is set by people and institutions that have n times your own income/net worth" , where dumb is a loaded term for your > "to the point where it no longer seems rational" . > But crucially, the presence of this group of people arguably turns…

> Going in debt for 30-40 years has zero appeal for me Going into debt at the lowest interest rate you'll ever be offered to buy a leveraged asset that's likely to increase in price and reduce the overhead you pay on your largest expense, housing, and hedge against the risk of rent increases and security against the whims of landlords? > Germany Oh, Germany. Somehow Germany has escaped the constantly increasing house…

I own a house in London. Its total value increase since I bought it 5 years ago is much less than my salary.

Re: Rocket Mortgage to trim 8% of workforce as home-loan market shrinks

#110
post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you explain point 2? Why do you refinance if rates go up? Surely the point is that if rates go up you've locked in a better rate How does half your debt disappear if rates go up?

Sure. > Why do you refinance if rates go up? Surely the point is that if rates go up you've locked in a better rate You don't have to, but you can choose to either (a) keep the same rate and owe the same amount, or (b) get the new (higher) rate and owe less. > How does half your debt disappear if rates go up? It doesn't exactly. However, the market value of your mortgage loan halves if the rate doubles (roughly). Thi…

At the start of the post you were the person taking out the loan but by the time you got to the explanation at the bottom of the post you were the bank.

If you've sold your $2/year income for $100 yesterday, why on earth do you want to buy it back and resell it for $50?

e: Oh wait I see. You want to go to the bank and say "I know I owe you $100+interest over the life of the mortgage, but what if I just pay you back $50 right now and we call it even?" Does that actually work?

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