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Ask HN: Why did the ruble stabilize and what's going on?

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Re: Ask HN: Why did the ruble stabilize and what's going on?

#151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> do you feel that the Russians have started to detest "West" more? It's certainly true for me and a few more people that I know. I used to be a cookie-cutter west-loving liberal, and now I'm slowly turning into a bitter vatnik. One of the things that made me change my mind (aside from diving deep into the history of the conflict after which many things started to make sense) is seeing how petty and ridiculous sancti…

I appreciate your perspective even though I disagree with it, and I'm sorry that you're being flagged and downvoted for posting what amounts to your opinion. Having said that, I'm curious: what does the Russian public education system teach you about Hitler and the events leading up to WWII? Here in the US, we are taught that Hitler first threatened, then proceeded, to invade his country's neighbors. His rationale: w…

[deleted]

Re: Ask HN: Why did the ruble stabilize and what's going on?

#152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think that’s what a silent majority of reasonable people might think, but there is still a ton of indiscriminate anti-Russian bigotry going around.

Quoted post unavailable.

And here we have a perfect example of anti-Russian bigotry.

Re: Ask HN: Why did the ruble stabilize and what's going on?

#153
post #31

Supply and demand. 1. Capital controls. Russians are legally not allowed to sell their Rubles anymore. This decreases supply and keeps prices up. 2. A healthy dose of foreign currency ($1B/day from Germany alone) gives the Russian central bank plenty of tools to buy Rubles and increase demand for it to keep prices up. This does not mean that the existing sanctions aren’t working. Eventually Russian factories will run…

>>> This does not mean that the existing sanctions aren’t working.

What metrics do you use to determine 'working'? Can you provide a couple examples of sanctions working to provide peace?

Re: Ask HN: Why did the ruble stabilize and what's going on?

#154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> do you feel that the Russians have started to detest "West" more? It's certainly true for me and a few more people that I know. I used to be a cookie-cutter west-loving liberal, and now I'm slowly turning into a bitter vatnik. One of the things that made me change my mind (aside from diving deep into the history of the conflict after which many things started to make sense) is seeing how petty and ridiculous sancti…

I appreciate your perspective even though I disagree with it, and I'm sorry that you're being flagged and downvoted for posting what amounts to your opinion. Having said that, I'm curious: what does the Russian public education system teach you about Hitler and the events leading up to WWII? Here in the US, we are taught that Hitler first threatened, then proceeded, to invade his country's neighbors. His rationale: w…

Thanks

I am not sure how it's taught currently but the events between 1918 and 1941 haven't been drawing much attention traditionally. Even more so now that laws forbidding justification of fascism are getting harsher every year

I find it a little bit funny that after all these years of practicing in drawing comparisons with Hitler, people try really hard at not noticing Azov. Answering your last question, russian propaganda is focusing on Azov way too much, trying to make an impression that they are not a few thousand strong unit, but represent most of Ukraine's military and we don't talk to nazi. Any dissent is steamrolled

Re: Ask HN: Why did the ruble stabilize and what's going on?

#155
post #31

Supply and demand. 1. Capital controls. Russians are legally not allowed to sell their Rubles anymore. This decreases supply and keeps prices up. 2. A healthy dose of foreign currency ($1B/day from Germany alone) gives the Russian central bank plenty of tools to buy Rubles and increase demand for it to keep prices up. This does not mean that the existing sanctions aren’t working. Eventually Russian factories will run…

>>> This does not mean that the existing sanctions aren’t working. What metrics do you use to determine 'working'? Can you provide a couple examples of sanctions working to provide peace?

How about South Africa dropping apartheid? Didn’t take a civil war to accomplish

Re: Ask HN: Why did the ruble stabilize and what's going on?

#156
post #73
post #31

Supply and demand. 1. Capital controls. Russians are legally not allowed to sell their Rubles anymore. This decreases supply and keeps prices up. 2. A healthy dose of foreign currency ($1B/day from Germany alone) gives the Russian central bank plenty of tools to buy Rubles and increase demand for it to keep prices up. This does not mean that the existing sanctions aren’t working. Eventually Russian factories will run…

Issue is that only the west is sanctioning them, not e.g. China. By sanctioning them we are just strengthening the Russia-China, India, etc. relationships. To think the world relies on the west to a point where its existential is a bit excessive, in my opinion

Russia does not earn all of its money in Europe, but it does most of its profit. There is a reason it engages in these multi-decade influence campaigns in Europe: the Chinese don't overpay nearly as readily because they can't.

Re: Ask HN: Why did the ruble stabilize and what's going on?

#157

I am in Russia right now. Since 18 April it is possible to buy USD, although current rate is slightly higher 77 (Google) vs 86 (that is from an actual local exchange office, not a bank, you can walk in and buy). Since the whole world seems to hate Russians right now, I guess no point buying USD and traveling somewhere. I keep hearing stories how "in just a few months" everything is going to collapse and people will b…

> Since the whole world seems to hate Russians right now,

No it does not. Don't fall for Russia=Putin propaganda. Russia can do very well without him, much better so in fact. Average Russians are among those that suffer the most under that monstrous band of criminals that inhibits the Kremlin. The last thing that Mafia wants you to know is that in fact you don't need their protection at all.

Re: Ask HN: Why did the ruble stabilize and what's going on?

#158

I’m surprised I haven’t seen the right answers here yet, so I will chime in. 1. Russia produces 12% of the world's oil and has a similar share of global oil exports. [0] Those purchases are now being made in Rubels.[1] This was a direct retaliation to the USA and European sanction efforts. Before this oil was universally exchanged in USD or EUR. This has helped prop up the Rubel. 2. Russia moving back to a gold stand…

> The Rubel is going to be pinned to the Gold standard. This makes the Rubel incredibly attractive as it can be a stable currency and easier to purchase than Gold itself The Rubel can be just as easy "unpinned" from gold on any given day by a politician's decision and that's absolutely something you can expect from Russia.

This. Those contracts werw not paid in Rubles for a good reason. Even at the height of the cold war communist countries used the USD for trade amongst themselves: the Kremlin is not and never was interested in creating the sort of rules-based systems that provide an expectation of long term stability.

Re: Ask HN: Why did the ruble stabilize and what's going on?

#159
post #157

I am in Russia right now. Since 18 April it is possible to buy USD, although current rate is slightly higher 77 (Google) vs 86 (that is from an actual local exchange office, not a bank, you can walk in and buy). Since the whole world seems to hate Russians right now, I guess no point buying USD and traveling somewhere. I keep hearing stories how "in just a few months" everything is going to collapse and people will b…

> Since the whole world seems to hate Russians right now, No it does not. Don't fall for Russia=Putin propaganda. Russia can do very well without him, much better so in fact. Average Russians are among those that suffer the most under that monstrous band of criminals that inhibits the Kremlin. The last thing that Mafia wants you to know is that in fact you don't need their protection at all.

It's not Russians who are thinking Putin=Russia..

Re: Ask HN: Why did the ruble stabilize and what's going on?

#160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> do you feel that the Russians have started to detest "West" more? It's certainly true for me and a few more people that I know. I used to be a cookie-cutter west-loving liberal, and now I'm slowly turning into a bitter vatnik. One of the things that made me change my mind (aside from diving deep into the history of the conflict after which many things started to make sense) is seeing how petty and ridiculous sancti…

What's the alternative, though? The leader of your country is terrorizing Europe in ways not seen in almost 80 years. We all know all-out war between nuclear states is not an option, so what should Western nations do? Just sit back and ignore the indiscriminate war crimes? It's ironic to me, given how clearly Putin's worldview presumes that power is all matters, how quick Russia has been to cry foul over sanctions. I…

> It's ironic to me, given how clearly Putin's worldview presumes that power is all matters, how quick Russia has been to cry foul over sanctions.

Unfortunately this is exactly how the world works. Decades of unipolar world order may have led to the wrong impression though

I really liked the recent Noam Chomsky's interview on the subject of geting along. It's called How To Prevent World War III

https://www.currentaffairs.org/2022/04/noam-chomsky-on-how-t...

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