Ask HN: Why did the ruble stabilize and what's going on? • Hacker News Board

Re: Ask HN: Why did the ruble stabilize and what's going on?

#131

Post by tuatoru » Sat, Apr 23, 2022, 9:00 PM UTC

gutitout wrote: post #78

I’m surprised I haven’t seen the right answers here yet, so I will chime in. 1. Russia produces 12% of the world's oil and has a similar share of global oil exports. [0] Those purchases are now being made in Rubels.[1] This was a direct retaliation to the USA and European sanction efforts. Before this oil was universally exchanged in USD or EUR. This has helped prop up the Rubel. 2. Russia moving back to a gold stand…

> My personal feeling (contrary to most comments here) is that the sanctions have a terrible effect on the USA and Europe .. [etc]

Russia's GDP is about 5% that of the US and the EU combined. It's not big enough to "destabilise" anything. Brexit (loss of an economy 4x larger than Russia's) is not having a terrible effect on the EU.

Wannabe competitors to SWIFT are even smaller in relative size, and as for India and China working together on something for a long period of time... well, I think India wants to retain access to the developed world's economy.

Sure, Russia shutting off gas supplies to the EU would be inconvenient for a while, but it would be more than inconvenient for Russia.

Re: Ask HN: Why did the ruble stabilize and what's going on?

#132

Post by burntoutfire » Sat, Apr 23, 2022, 9:04 PM UTC

gutitout wrote: post #78

I’m surprised I haven’t seen the right answers here yet, so I will chime in. 1. Russia produces 12% of the world's oil and has a similar share of global oil exports. [0] Those purchases are now being made in Rubels.[1] This was a direct retaliation to the USA and European sanction efforts. Before this oil was universally exchanged in USD or EUR. This has helped prop up the Rubel. 2. Russia moving back to a gold stand…

> The Rubel is going to be pinned to the Gold standard. This makes the Rubel incredibly attractive as it can be a stable currency and easier to purchase than Gold itself

The Rubel can be just as easy "unpinned" from gold on any given day by a politician's decision and that's absolutely something you can expect from Russia.

Re: Ask HN: Why did the ruble stabilize and what's going on?

#133

Post by CamperBob2 » Sat, Apr 23, 2022, 9:07 PM UTC

russiano wrote: post #109

ShivShankaran wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Quoted post unavailable.

> do you feel that the Russians have started to detest "West" more? It's certainly true for me and a few more people that I know. I used to be a cookie-cutter west-loving liberal, and now I'm slowly turning into a bitter vatnik. One of the things that made me change my mind (aside from diving deep into the history of the conflict after which many things started to make sense) is seeing how petty and ridiculous sancti…

I appreciate your perspective even though I disagree with it, and I'm sorry that you're being flagged and downvoted for posting what amounts to your opinion. Having said that, I'm curious: what does the Russian public education system teach you about Hitler and the events leading up to WWII?

Here in the US, we are taught that Hitler first threatened, then proceeded, to invade his country's neighbors. His rationale: we are protecting ethnic German enclaves, we are seeking to recover losses from Germany's previous disastrous approach to world politics (i.e., WWI), and we are entitled to secure more living space for the German people along with the economic self-determinism that it will bring.

I imagine that most Europeans are taught similar things.

So, is it surprising that many Westerners are disturbed by the parallels between Hitler's actions in the 1930s and Putin's actions today? It is easy to convince us that Putin has to be stopped at (almost) any cost, because we have seen -- or at least, we believe we have seen -- the consequences of letting a schoolyard bully dictate terms at the international level.

Certainly it feels awkward to lecture a Russian on such matters, since your country suffered by far the worst losses due to Nazi aggression and expansionism. Yet the lesson seems entirely lost on your countrymen. What do they teach you over there, exactly, that makes Putin's behavior seem acceptable?

Re: Ask HN: Why did the ruble stabilize and what's going on?

#134

Post by Trias11 » Sat, Apr 23, 2022, 9:13 PM UTC

frosted-flakes wrote: post #101

spaceheater wrote: post #75

I am in Russia right now. Since 18 April it is possible to buy USD, although current rate is slightly higher 77 (Google) vs 86 (that is from an actual local exchange office, not a bank, you can walk in and buy). Since the whole world seems to hate Russians right now, I guess no point buying USD and traveling somewhere. I keep hearing stories how "in just a few months" everything is going to collapse and people will b…

The whole world does not hate Russians. On the contrary, I've seen a lot of empathy for Russians abroad and in Russia who do not support the invasion of and atrocities in the Ukraine but still have to suffer because of the Russian government's, or rather Vladimir Putin's, actions. Obviously, yes, Russians who express support for Putin are hated, rightfully so.

It's the silent approval of Putin actions by the majority of Russian population is what caused world to actually and generally dislike Russian people.

Granted - they been hypnothized by putin's multi-billion dollar/yr propaganda machine but this is the result.

Re: Ask HN: Why did the ruble stabilize and what's going on?

#135

Post by [deleted] » Sat, Apr 23, 2022, 9:18 PM UTC

spaceheater wrote: post #75

I am in Russia right now. Since 18 April it is possible to buy USD, although current rate is slightly higher 77 (Google) vs 86 (that is from an actual local exchange office, not a bank, you can walk in and buy). Since the whole world seems to hate Russians right now, I guess no point buying USD and traveling somewhere. I keep hearing stories how "in just a few months" everything is going to collapse and people will b…

[deleted]

Re: Ask HN: Why did the ruble stabilize and what's going on?

#136

Post by [deleted] » Sat, Apr 23, 2022, 9:20 PM UTC

radu_floricica wrote: post #121

russiano wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> do you feel that the Russians have started to detest "West" more? It's certainly true for me and a few more people that I know. I used to be a cookie-cutter west-loving liberal, and now I'm slowly turning into a bitter vatnik. One of the things that made me change my mind (aside from diving deep into the history of the conflict after which many things started to make sense) is seeing how petty and ridiculous sancti…

As an outsider, of course I dislike the average Russian and hold him at least somewhat responsible, for two reasons: 1. his collective historical actions led to Russia being led by a mafia regime and 2. his taxes directly fund the war. > aside from diving deep into the history of the conflict after which many things started to make sense I'm very curious about that... would you mind sharing?

[deleted]

Re: Ask HN: Why did the ruble stabilize and what's going on?

#137

Post by hypertele-Xii » Sat, Apr 23, 2022, 9:24 PM UTC

philwelch wrote: post #123

frosted-flakes wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The whole world does not hate Russians. On the contrary, I've seen a lot of empathy for Russians abroad and in Russia who do not support the invasion of and atrocities in the Ukraine but still have to suffer because of the Russian government's, or rather Vladimir Putin's, actions. Obviously, yes, Russians who express support for Putin are hated, rightfully so.

I think that’s what a silent majority of reasonable people might think, but there is still a ton of indiscriminate anti-Russian bigotry going around.

No post body was provided.

Re: Ask HN: Why did the ruble stabilize and what's going on?

#138

Post by brokensegue » Sat, Apr 23, 2022, 9:42 PM UTC

exabrial wrote: post #127

There's no doubt extensive manipulation, but don't forget the EU is still buying ""essential"" gas and other petrochemicals from Russia. Grow a pair: Lift the ban on domestic exploration. Open the floodgates from other countries. People's are dying over cheap gas.

It would take a long time to dramatically increase petroleum production. Doesn't seem relevant to the crisis.

And long term we want to reduce fossil fuel production.

Re: Ask HN: Why did the ruble stabilize and what's going on?

#139

Post by Helitioo » Sat, Apr 23, 2022, 10:00 PM UTC

frosted-flakes wrote: post #101

spaceheater wrote: post #75

I am in Russia right now. Since 18 April it is possible to buy USD, although current rate is slightly higher 77 (Google) vs 86 (that is from an actual local exchange office, not a bank, you can walk in and buy). Since the whole world seems to hate Russians right now, I guess no point buying USD and traveling somewhere. I keep hearing stories how "in just a few months" everything is going to collapse and people will b…

The whole world does not hate Russians. On the contrary, I've seen a lot of empathy for Russians abroad and in Russia who do not support the invasion of and atrocities in the Ukraine but still have to suffer because of the Russian government's, or rather Vladimir Putin's, actions. Obviously, yes, Russians who express support for Putin are hated, rightfully so.

No post body was provided.

Re: Ask HN: Why did the ruble stabilize and what's going on?

#140

Post by Helitioo » Sat, Apr 23, 2022, 10:02 PM UTC

netsharc wrote: post #122

throwaway787544 wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> However, seeing rabid mccartism and imposing collective guilt only makes me feel under siege. Seeing as that is the whole point of the sanctions, I'd say it's working. The point is to piss off regular Russians enough that at some point they might decide to overthrow their dictator.

Quoted post unavailable.

No post body was provided.