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The bottom is dropping out of Netflix

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Re: The bottom is dropping out of Netflix

#91

Post by bombcar »

bruce511 wrote: post #37

I see a lot of focus on the "lost 200 000 subscribers", but less acknowledgement that they kicked 700 000 Russians off the subscriber list, meaning they actually grew by 500 000 subscribers (still well short of wall streets expectation of 2.5 million.) So in one sense it's a one-time drop, not a trend. Does Netflix have more competition than before? sure. Is it growing as fast as before? no, especially as they reach…

Likely the very fact that there's been all these articles about Netflix losing will cause them to lose more.

Re: The bottom is dropping out of Netflix

#92

Post by ilrwbwrkhv »

Honestly for me I just do not know all the content Netflix has because the browsing is so bad. I wish instead of pushing shows to me best on algorithms, it would just let me browse categories and recent additions etc in a simpler way. Maybe categorised by year.

Re: The bottom is dropping out of Netflix

#93

Post by cercatrova »

onion2k wrote: post #59
glenjamin wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The graph in your link appears to show an operating profit of over $6 billion. What has gone wrong with our world that making a 6 billion dollar a year profit is considered a problem?

What has gone wrong with our world that making a 6 billion dollar a year profit is considered a problem? Because it is a problem. Firstly, it's a problem because stock prices are a measure of predicted future value. The profit today is mostly irrelevant. In order to make a profit on shares the business has to be in a position to do better in the future. If it doesn't then people won't believe it'll do better even far…

Netflix does not pay in shares, they pay in all cash as their job compensation.

Re: The bottom is dropping out of Netflix

#94

Post by cm2012 »

loudmax wrote: post #64
f0e4c2f7 wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't watch stuff unless it has ended and is reccomended by someone who watches shows I generally enjoy. Here's my pitch for the golden age of TV, though most of these are from a few years back. Most on HBO. The Wire The Sopranos Generation Kill The Deuce Treme Show me a Hero Luck The Expanse Sillicon Valley (not actually that funny but like a documentary of our field) Mad Men

Obviously any such list is subjective, but I have are a few strong contenders for inclusion. Breaking Bad Narcos Battlestar Galactica And some weaker contenders: Game of Thrones, Stranger Things, Crash and Burn

And I think Better Call Saul is even better than Breaking Bad

Re: The bottom is dropping out of Netflix

#95

Post by prasadjoglekar »

OskarS wrote: post #60

The thing I find interesting with Netflix is how much they spend on content and what a terrible rate of return it has. Look at Apple TV+, they're absolutely TINY compared to Netflix in both library size and money spent on new production, but they have arguably more hits than Netflix. Like, since when has any drama on Netflix been as buzzy or as good as Severance on Apple TV+? When was the last time they had a comedy…

"The thing I find interesting with Netflix is how much they spend on content and what a terrible rate of return it has."

Bingo - that's the real reason for the long term (or secular ) decline we're seeing. With 0% interest rates, it didn't matter what the payoff time horizon for Netflix was. With 4% interest rates, longer horizons are gone. Couple that with Netflix being a discretionary expense, and we see the compounding effects of inflation.

Two things will happen - we'll see the real value of Netflix's library content. Do people really value that at $12 per month.

And we'll also likely see an appreciation in the value of the library content from legacy studios like Paramount/NBCU etc. - who have complained for the longest time that this is undervalued relative to Netflix.

Re: The bottom is dropping out of Netflix

#96

Post by bombcar »

lotsofpulp wrote: post #87
gumby wrote: post #57

Netflix always had a terrible business model dependent on transient properties of the media environment. I thought from the beginning they were not masters of their own fate (remember Redbox's hack to get around publisher restrictions? Weird streaming windows even from the streaming era's earliest days?) and once they started spending the big bucks to try and stay afloat it was clear they were doomed. They were only…

> They were only in "FAANG" to make the acronym funny. https://www.businessinsider.com/what-is-faang See “The origins of FAANG”. At some point, presumably because it is a catchy sounding acronym, people started using FAANG to mean large tech companies, or large tech companies with very high payrates.

FAANG or FANG without N becomes a very unfortunate acronym.

Re: The bottom is dropping out of Netflix

#97

Post by cm2012 »

f0e4c2f7 wrote: post #40
sudden_dystopia wrote: post #22

Interesting analysis. I find it interesting that so many people spend so much time watching tv in the first place. Growing up, I was one of those people but about a decade ago I lost interest in pretty much anything on television. There are certain shows that I will watch on occasion that get me hooked, but I usually struggle to find anything that is actually worth my time and end up just turning the tv off after sur…

I don't watch stuff unless it has ended and is reccomended by someone who watches shows I generally enjoy. Here's my pitch for the golden age of TV, though most of these are from a few years back. Most on HBO. The Wire The Sopranos Generation Kill The Deuce Treme Show me a Hero Luck The Expanse Sillicon Valley (not actually that funny but like a documentary of our field) Mad Men

I'd add Arcane on Netflix, which is also on the top 20 shows of all time on IMBD.

Re: The bottom is dropping out of Netflix

#98

Post by bombcar »

smt88 wrote: post #38
fullstop wrote: post #26

I get Netflix through my cell phone carrier, otherwise I would drop it. I don't watch a lot of content, and I find myself watching HBO Max more often when I do. With that being said, I might still buy some $NFLX. I thought that they were dead once before with the whole Qwikster thing, but investing in the company then would have been a very smart move.

HBO Max is phenomenal. They seem to be going a different route (pushing quality) than Netflix (algorithms generating low-budget reality shows).

It's slightly possible that HBO has a longer track record making good content than Netflix does; not everything can be solved by throwing money at it.

Re: The bottom is dropping out of Netflix

#99

Post by pbhjpbhj »

loudmax wrote: post #64
f0e4c2f7 wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't watch stuff unless it has ended and is reccomended by someone who watches shows I generally enjoy. Here's my pitch for the golden age of TV, though most of these are from a few years back. Most on HBO. The Wire The Sopranos Generation Kill The Deuce Treme Show me a Hero Luck The Expanse Sillicon Valley (not actually that funny but like a documentary of our field) Mad Men

Obviously any such list is subjective, but I have are a few strong contenders for inclusion. Breaking Bad Narcos Battlestar Galactica And some weaker contenders: Game of Thrones, Stranger Things, Crash and Burn

So, I see this and think "ooh, BG, I'd watch that again". Then I think, how do I find it, will I need a new subscription, it's probably not even available in my geographical area ... or I could probably go to a Torrent site and be watching it in 5 minutes (the limitation being the speed of my internet connection).

As copyright is system granted by the demos I'd love to force federation by creating a 'most-favoured nation'-type deal where if you offer content to one delivery company you have to make it available to all (maybe after a 1 year exclusivity period) for the same price. Under such a regime everyone gets paid but artificial monopolies are restricted (such monopolies don't help the demos so why allow copyright to be used to create them??).

The proliferation of content provider apps is getting silly and we should mould copyright to serve the people.

Re: The bottom is dropping out of Netflix

#100

Post by motogpjimbo »

TheOtherHobbes wrote: post #77
sudden_dystopia wrote: post #22

Interesting analysis. I find it interesting that so many people spend so much time watching tv in the first place. Growing up, I was one of those people but about a decade ago I lost interest in pretty much anything on television. There are certain shows that I will watch on occasion that get me hooked, but I usually struggle to find anything that is actually worth my time and end up just turning the tv off after sur…

I only use Netflix and Prime, and both feel really stale to me. It's all "content" - good to very good production values designed to fill a gap and appeal to a demographic. But very repetitive and production line, with no passion projects, nothing too arty or quirky, nothing outside of the box, no surprises. Some of it is quite watchable, but none of it is exciting or fresh. It's all some combination of stock soapy c…

Throwing money at graduate filmmakers and telling them to follow their passions would all but guarantee a catalogue full of $CURRENT_DAY political messaging, which would be poison for subscriber retention.
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