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Trapped in lockdown, Shanghai residents turn to WeChat groups for food

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Re: Trapped in lockdown, Shanghai residents turn to WeChat groups for food

#51

Post by RandomWorker »

GekkePrutser wrote: post #25
robonerd wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Supposing there were a new variant, or some new illness entirely, recent history suggests the CCP would sooner try to suppress it themselves than admit it publicly. So... maybe.

Don't forget that China still tries for a zero covid strategy even with variants that are unlikely to overload the health system like Omicron. So whether it's Omicron or a new variant, their response would be the same. Sooner or later they'll have to open up like we did (and things are going just fine). But I think it's a PR issue, they've been preaching the zero covid so long.. They care a lot about their reputation…

Happy valley from Monty Python

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=q_4Ny8aLTS0

Re: Trapped in lockdown, Shanghai residents turn to WeChat groups for food

#52

Post by robonerd »

vkou wrote: post #26
robonerd wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

COVID is pretty much over, lockdowns and mask mandates are being lifted around the free world. However authoritarian governments will likely continue to use it as a lame excuse for years to come.

'Covid is over', yet daily case counts are higher than at any point in time except during the first omicron surge. Over 1 million a day, at the moment. The only thing that's over is the media's interest in talking about it, over other vitally important topics, like Will Smith.

Infection counts are irrelevant. What matters is that relatively few people will be killed by it because vaccination (even the shitty Chinese vax) and natural immunity have changed the equation. In my progressive west coast city, even front-line customer service workers like grocery store employees are abandoning their masks. Covid is becoming endemic, yet mostly harmless. Zero-covid is a delusion for totalitarians.

Re: Trapped in lockdown, Shanghai residents turn to WeChat groups for food

#53

Post by wetmore »

sudosysgen wrote: post #37
_abox wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

True, I got covid 2 weeks after getting my booster (3rd mRNA dose). At a point where protection should have been optimal. However it only gave me slight sniffles for 2 days. The vaccine made me more sick :) so IMO the vaccine did its job. I agree with rolling the dice on this. We can't keep locking thingals down forever and masks only delay an eventual infection anyway. The anti covid measures do their own damage on…

Ah, what I'm talking about is something else - people are being infected through the vaccine, and get a second breakthrough infection within a month of the first one. I don't know how widespread it is. Reinfections are generally milder than the first infection, but it's not the case every time. If we let the virus run through like wildfire and accumulate mutation after mutation as it runs through billions of hosts ev…

Yeah, this is anecdotal of course but I was double vaxxed + boosted by last October, and I got covid for the first time in late December 2021, and the second time early April 2022. The first time was extremely mild (no real symptoms beyond the sniffles) and the second time was like getting the flu (fever, sore throat, persistent cough and lots of mucus).

Re: Trapped in lockdown, Shanghai residents turn to WeChat groups for food

#54

Post by sudosysgen »

ars wrote: post #8

There's no point in doing this, COVID will spread until everyone gets it at least once. You just want to slow it down not to overwhelm hospitals and that it's. And if you immunize everyone there's very few hospitalizations. Just make vaccines available - you don't even need to mandate them, most people will take them, and that's good enough.

COVID won't stop spreading when everyone gets it at least once. It will continue to reinfect most people, and mutate faster than you can vaccinate. Every few months the vaccines will become less and less effective.

Where I live was almost entirely vaccinated, and that didn't stop the virus from overwhelming hospitals, even with lockdowns. Most people had probably already gotten it too by that point.

I don't know what's the solution, but there's clearly a point in trying to keep the virus from becoming a permanent strain. The question is if it will be successful. Locking down ~5% of the country is preferable to locking down 100% of the country because a new variant came around and the hospitals are full, so on that basis it's rational if you think it has a chance of actually being successful.

Re: Trapped in lockdown, Shanghai residents turn to WeChat groups for food

#55

Post by reissbaker »

triyambakam wrote: post #22
dayofthedaleks wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Sinovac vaccine isnt effective against recent variants, so it's 2020 all over again until mRNA tech becomes available. Also many older people aren't vaccinated.

Have we been looking at different data? I don't see how any mRNA product has performed significantly better.

What are you talking about? A three-dose regimen of Pfizer or Moderna pitted against Omicron is 75% effective against infection and 88% effective against severe disease: https://www.healthline.com/health-news/by-the-numbers-covid-...

Sinovac wasn't great against the original strain, but against Omicron, Sinovac is basically worthless. A two-dose regimen provides literally no benefit, and three doses is only equivalent to unboosted, two-dose mRNA (aka, not really effective): https://news.yale.edu/2022/01/20/vaccine-used-much-world-no-...

Sinovac is trash, but politically China can't admit failure and buy the Western vaccines, and hence it's stuck with lockdowns.

Re: Trapped in lockdown, Shanghai residents turn to WeChat groups for food

#56

Post by sudosysgen »

ars wrote: post #48
hedgehog wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you have a citation for that? The data I'be seen suggests no reduction in severity due to previous infection.

"Reinfections had 90% lower odds of resulting in hospitalization or death than primary infections. Four reinfections were severe enough to lead to acute care hospitalization. None led to hospitalization in an ICU, and none ended in death." https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/nejmc2108120 It was literally the first hit on google. And it's well known that infection is much more protective than vaccination (although r…

Who you're replying to specifically cited Omicron. The study you posted is older than Omicron. There is evidence Omicron and Delta are much better at reinfection.

Re: Trapped in lockdown, Shanghai residents turn to WeChat groups for food

#57

Post by robonerd »

GekkePrutser wrote: post #39
sudosysgen wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ah, what I'm talking about is something else - people are being infected through the vaccine, and get a second breakthrough infection within a month of the first one. I don't know how widespread it is. Reinfections are generally milder than the first infection, but it's not the case every time. If we let the virus run through like wildfire and accumulate mutation after mutation as it runs through billions of hosts ev…

Is a scenario where we have to work from home a couple of times a year for a few days due to a mild infection really such a nightmare? Considering the constant lockdowns we'll need to prevent it, that sounds a lot worse tbh. Of course it's possible a dangerous strain will emerge but I think it's worth the risk.

> work from home

That this is possible at all for you is a privilege many do not enjoy.

Re: Trapped in lockdown, Shanghai residents turn to WeChat groups for food

#58

Post by blablablub »

GekkePrutser wrote: post #34
blablablub wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The current omicron cases are already overloading the health system in Shanghai. and that are only about 5000 cases.

But that could be a response issue too.. As far as I've heard China hospitalizes everyone even cases that don't need actual care. Also they have some immunity to build up that we have had over the last 2 years. I know it doesn't prevent covid but it does seem to reduce it's severity a lot.

China distinguishes between asymptomatic and "confirmed" cases. In the last 10 days there were around 140k asymptomatic cases - those are shipped to the makeshift hospitals "quarantine centers" you see on TV.

During the same time there are around 5k cases with symptoms, as i understand all confirmed with a chest x-ray scan(?). Those go into the covid hospitals, which are now overflowing.

Do all of those need to go to a hospital? I don't know. But on the pictures you see mostly elderly people, and the vaccination rate among those is about as high as in HK

Re: Trapped in lockdown, Shanghai residents turn to WeChat groups for food

#59

Post by tablespoon »

Cerium wrote: post #19
etaioinshrdlu wrote: post #12

I believe this will lead to anyone in China (Chinese or otherwise) to permanently leave the country if they are able.

Currently you can't get out unless you have a business, student visa or permanent residence permit. The word is that tourist visa holders will be denied exit. Getting in is also very arduous.

> Currently you can't get out unless you have a business, student visa or permanent residence permit. The word is that tourist visa holders will be denied exit. Getting in is also very arduous.

As of when? I know some people who left China in December on a tourist visa to another country.

Re: Trapped in lockdown, Shanghai residents turn to WeChat groups for food

#60

Post by tablespoon »

miked85 wrote: post #14

I haven't seen yet why China is going into lockdown again. Is there a new variant?

> I haven't seen yet why China is going into lockdown again. Is there a new variant?

Just the same ones we have everywhere else. The problem is that the new variants are so contagious that their COVID zero practices now can't keep up.

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