Missing wheat from the war is less than 1% of global wheat crop • Hacker News Board

Re: Missing wheat from the war is less than 1% of global wheat crop

#111

Post by KarlKemp » Thu, Mar 31, 2022, 6:14 PM UTC

drexlspivey wrote: post #11

blaser-waffle wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Political will, removing subsidies for farmers, logistics of actually shipping wheat, climate change, etc.

How is climate change preventing Egypt to import wheat from India instead of Russia?

By causing a previous rise in food prices in the region, which caused a hungry merchant to immolate himself, which caused widespread protests and, ultimately, unrest including the Syrian war, which allowed Putin to test his air force, creating the smug attitude that he could invade the Ukraine.

Re: Missing wheat from the war is less than 1% of global wheat crop

#112

Post by bombela » Thu, Mar 31, 2022, 6:16 PM UTC

danuker wrote: post #71

webmaven wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Leaving aside the issue that trucks can't move stuff across oceans, how do you get the extra trucks to where they are needed?

As a Romanian I visited Lviv a few years ago. There were some disaster potholes right past the border. It took 1 hour to go through say, 10km with a small car. Unless those roads get fixed, I expect only military or otherwise rugged trucks to be able to pass quickly. Otherwise, you'd need a lot of trucks to get a significant flow of goods. Example: https://www.google.com/maps/@48.0388842,22.9469939,3a,75y,33...

Ah, looks barely worse than roads in the Silicon Valley. Maybe that's why everybody drives SUV and pickup truck over here.

Re: Missing wheat from the war is less than 1% of global wheat crop

#113

Post by munk-a » Thu, Mar 31, 2022, 6:17 PM UTC

thepasswordis wrote: post #59

stevesimmons wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What would your solution be? This is a serious question. Yes, sanctions hurt ordinary people. Yes, there are second order effects that will hurt many people in the developing world. But equally, giving in to Putin will create a bigger problem for Ukraine now, and for eastern Europe and Taiwan in future. There are no easy solutions here. Otherwise they would have been taken already.

The original ask from Russia was: Donbas becomes part of Russia, crimea becomes officially part of Russia, Ukraine promises not to join nato, and “denazification” of the Ukrainian government. Ukraine is now offering that to Russia. My ask is that the adults who were screaming at the top of their lungs to take that deal a month ago, were listened to. Further that the people screaming at the top of their lungs that tur…

Neville Chamberlain agrees that forcing Ukraine to cede land to Russia will solve the problem once and for all - just like it did when we tacitly accepted the permanent Russian occupation of Crimea.

It really isn't a secret that Putin is pining for the days of the Soviet Union and wants to reunite the old power block - so why would we ever want to risk sacrificing the stability of the EU to restore the Warsaw Pact and all the international conflicts that came with it?

Re: Missing wheat from the war is less than 1% of global wheat crop

#114

Post by shagmin » Thu, Mar 31, 2022, 6:20 PM UTC

This doesn't address how inelastic wheat demand is, and that value < 1% can still be a massive amount of wheat.

Re: Missing wheat from the war is less than 1% of global wheat crop

#115

Post by brian_cloutier » Thu, Mar 31, 2022, 6:21 PM UTC

jefftk wrote: post #96

brian_cloutier wrote: post #93

This thread makes some claims which seem contradictory, or at least unusual. [0] claims that a rise in the price of wheat futures caused more wheat to be planted; fair enough. However, [1] claims that there is no wheat shortage, there is instead a shipping shortage, and [1] and [2] both claim that investors are unreasonably panicked, because there is not actually a wheat shortage. However, I really don't see the dist…

> I really don't see the distinction between a "wheat shortage" and a "shipping shortage" The distinction matters a lot if you're trying to solve the problem. I saw lots of people suggesting a few weeks ago that the US change policy to cause more wheat to be produced, which would only help with the former.

Sure, of course, but that doesn't explain why price increases due to a "wheat shortage" are just while price increases due to a "shipping shortage" are panic.

Re: Missing wheat from the war is less than 1% of global wheat crop

#116

Post by stuckinhell » Thu, Mar 31, 2022, 6:22 PM UTC

There are three types of lies. Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics.

We've had enough food to feed the world for years and years. We have a supply chain and corruption problem.

Also in world undergoing deglobalization/realignment, we don't know if super wheat producers like China or India will be willing to export their supplies.

I think people are absolutely right to worry about commodities during this realignment to a multi-polar world. A lot of old assumptions about what countries will or won't do are not accurate any more. Just look at how the BRICS nations have ignored US sanctions on Russia.

Re: Missing wheat from the war is less than 1% of global wheat crop

#117

Post by swagasaurus-rex » Thu, Mar 31, 2022, 6:26 PM UTC

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #106

alephnan wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> marginal buyer and seller Yeah, but are end consumers actually buying wheat at the margin ?

> are end consumers actually buying wheat at the margin ? Yes, everything transacts at the margin.

The margin shifts for each step in the supply chain in order to pay for the work done in that step. And earn a margin on that work.

Re: Missing wheat from the war is less than 1% of global wheat crop

#118

Post by Wohlf » Thu, Mar 31, 2022, 6:31 PM UTC

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #105

nradov wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The difference is that unlike microchips, wheat can't be stored indefinitely. Eventually it rots. And reserve storage capacity is very limited; they have to make room for the next crop. The worldwide wheat market is huge and fragmented so no one can really corner the market through hoarding. An electronics manufacturer might not be able to easily substitute a '328 for another microcontroller, but an Egyptian baker ca…

> unlike microchips, wheat can't be stored indefinitely I'm actually unsure which depreciates quicker: wheat or silicon? On one hand, wheat is perishable. On the other hand, silicon becomes obsolete.

Well the PS4 was released in 2013 and still plays modern games, sure they could look better and run faster but it gets the job done.

Re: Missing wheat from the war is less than 1% of global wheat crop

#119

Post by mceoin » Thu, Mar 31, 2022, 6:32 PM UTC

David Friedberg on All In Podcast went into this topic quite a bit. (His bona fides: ex Monsanto Exec, active founder/investor in food/ag space, previously founded climate.com).

Prediction was 200-300m people facing starvation due to the food shortages. Fertilizer input costs being the major driver, with decline in wheat exports also being an important factor.

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/e72-impact-of-sanction...

Re: Missing wheat from the war is less than 1% of global wheat crop

#120

Post by tyrfing » Thu, Mar 31, 2022, 6:40 PM UTC

groby_b wrote: post #18

VLM wrote: post #7

The point is the economy is currently based on something hits the news, hoard hoard hoard, price explodes, empty shelves and high profits. Happened to TP a couple years ago and is in process with microcontroller chips and will be happening soon with food. People hear story on news, think there will be empty shelves, buy a multi-year supply of boxed Mac n Cheese, the shelves are indeed empty, more people think there w…

> The point is the economy is currently based on something hits the news, hoard hoard hoard, price explodes, empty shelves and high profits. Given that that extends well beyond individual behaviour (Wheat futures[1] are currently bonkers), this raises the question if the claim that "capitalism is the optimal way to allocate resources" is really true at least for the current version of capitalism. This extends well be…

Why is the "fair price" not significantly higher than it was 2 months ago, for short-dated futures? Supply is temporarily disrupted, all input costs are significantly higher, and it's a very inelastic market because elasticity comes from mass starvation. You can say the move was an overreaction - but it's pricing in many unknowns, the probability of which are certainly not zero. What if Russia banned all grain exports, for example?