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US schools can subscribe to an electric bus fleet at lower prices than diesel

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Re: US schools can subscribe to an electric bus fleet at lower prices than diesel

#151

Post by rootusrootus »

olivermarks wrote: post #131

'Out of the roughly 500,000 school buses in the U.S., only about 0.2 percent — just over 1,000 — were electric as of the end of 2021' I can see EV buses being practical for future urban short distance pickup and drop off, but the longer haul rural routes, especially in cold climates, seem a long way off to the EV obsessed as a solution to anything. Huge subsidies and grants may seduce a few school boards but the real…

Average total route length is 75 miles per day. A Blue Bird electric bus, as a comparison point, has a range of 120 miles. So not all routes will be feasible with that bus, but a large number will be a perfect fit.

Re: US schools can subscribe to an electric bus fleet at lower prices than diesel

#152

Post by olivermarks »

lostlogin wrote: post #145
olivermarks wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://youtu.be/J6eS6JzBn0k Lithium-Ion Battery Fires in Electric Vehicles - Safety Risks to Emergency RespondersNTSBGov Thermal runaway, stranded energy and battery reignition should preclude EV usage to transport children until adequate safety measures are put in place. EV car fires are intense, high voltage and severe. A bus full of children fire doesn't bear thinking about.

Ever been near a car fire? They burn pretty well and you'll feel it from the other side of a multilane road. I've also seen buses burn. Is there a reason to think that more kids are going to burn in electric busses than ICE ones?

Ever been near an EV fire?

They burn with the equivalent of a 220v welder across the whole battery skateboard, will literally melt aluminum wheels and body parts and require 20 tons of water to temporarily extinguish. There's a huge difference between an ICE vehicle fire, which is essentially rubber, upholstery and plastics burning sometime compounded by gasoline vapor and an EV thermal runaway trapped energy event. I think all EVs should be required to have manual escape locks etc at a minimum. https://youtu.be/J6eS6JzBn0k

Re: US schools can subscribe to an electric bus fleet at lower prices than diesel

#153

Post by ajford »

wolverine876 wrote: post #149
mostly_harmless wrote: post #111

For those questioning the feasibility, 100% electric school buses are already on the road in Montreal. I see them frequently, and they seem to handle our crappy roads and winters fine.

Why would electric buses have more problems on winter roads than ICE buses?

Cold air impacting heath & capacity on the Li batteries, perhaps? Lithium batts tend to be finicky about their temperatures. Even my PHEV chevy volt de-rates the capacity if the ambient air temps hit less than 36*F.

Re: US schools can subscribe to an electric bus fleet at lower prices than diesel

#154

Post by rootusrootus »

aaronax wrote: post #62
sanp wrote: post #14

I still don't get that TCO for EV is higher than Diesel. On the consumer side, let's look at Tesla Model Y vs. Lexus RX 350. I am using "premium" makes on both sides of this equations. If we want to go with a cheaper ICE then it should be compared with a cheaper EV. Idea being, there is a reasonable comparison where EV comes out ahead on TCO. Cost / mile: $0.04 vs. $0.10 Difference in purchase cost: $55K (base model…

I guess you have shown that in the luxury segment the TCO comes out better for EVs. Many people are not buying $50k+ luxury vehicles. Care to run an estimate for something like what I was buying a year ago? I was in the market for a loaded 5 year old vehicle with 60-80k miles for $10-13k (Dodge Dart for example, also liked a few Ford Fusion options). There were options like this available, though I happened to stumbl…

When I leased our Bolt, the retail price was $23K. Costs me 1.7 cents a mile in fueling costs. It is a good bit nicer than an 80K Dodge Dart, of course, but it's a data point. I also have time-of-use rates, which helps.

Anyway. Assuming 27 mpg for the Dart (this is what Fuelly says average Dart owners experience) and $4.67 gasoline (the US average from a few days ago), should cost around 17 cents a mile in gasoline. Assuming an average of 14.8 cents per kWh (the US average from February) and 3 miles per kWh (somewhat conservative, but close enough) for the Bolt, you'd be looking at 5 cents per mile in electricity.

Not a perfect comparison, the Bolt would be brand new with a warranty, etc, but at least it's not a luxury EV comparison, just an appliance car like a Dart. You'd break even on costs at 76K miles.

Of course, at that point the Bolt has just reached the mileage the Dart started at, and so it will quickly pull ahead in TCO. If you do a lot of road trips you might not like it, but if you primarily drive in the city you will really like not having to stop once a week to get gas.

Re: US schools can subscribe to an electric bus fleet at lower prices than diesel

#155

Post by splitstud »

cpwright wrote: post #49
ZeroGravitas wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a fairly standard reframing when your product has lower TCO but higher upfront costs. If people just look at the upfront cost, they have that 2x or 3x gut reaction and just switch off. Some nerdier types might draw up a spreadsheet and know exactly how many months they'd expect to break even and start saving. People familiar with spreadsheets probably also don't have that much trouble getting loans and paying…

I'm not sure why you would assume that the average school bus buyer can't do a spreadsheet. Our local suburban NY school district is fairly run-of-the mill, and has a budget of $84 million with several million dollars of that being for transportation. We have our own busses and drivers, and they spend about a quarter million dollars a year on diesel fuel. The Superintendent for business affairs that has an MBA from C…

No post body was provided.

Re: US schools can subscribe to an electric bus fleet at lower prices than diesel

#156

Post by rconti »

olivermarks wrote: post #131

'Out of the roughly 500,000 school buses in the U.S., only about 0.2 percent — just over 1,000 — were electric as of the end of 2021' I can see EV buses being practical for future urban short distance pickup and drop off, but the longer haul rural routes, especially in cold climates, seem a long way off to the EV obsessed as a solution to anything. Huge subsidies and grants may seduce a few school boards but the real…

So what you're saying is, there's a huge market opportunity between "0.2%" and "everything other than longer haul routes in cold climates"?

Re: US schools can subscribe to an electric bus fleet at lower prices than diesel

#157

Post by krallja »

wolverine876 wrote: post #149
mostly_harmless wrote: post #111

For those questioning the feasibility, 100% electric school buses are already on the road in Montreal. I see them frequently, and they seem to handle our crappy roads and winters fine.

Why would electric buses have more problems on winter roads than ICE buses?

It’s cold in the winter.

Re: US schools can subscribe to an electric bus fleet at lower prices than diesel

#158

Post by rootusrootus »

aurizon wrote: post #86

A niche opened up, buy ebusses, lock school boards into 10-20 year contracts to save 10-20% on fuels costs and have zero capital/maintenance costs. The bus company lives on the ~~60-70% fuels cost saving and finances the bus fleet. Typical contract to see to various users with short terms viewpoints. I would like to see what the board savings are in a sample of a lease - most will be under NDA's I expect?

> most will be under NDA's I expect?

What are the odds that school districts are even legally allowed to sign such an NDA?

Re: US schools can subscribe to an electric bus fleet at lower prices than diesel

#159

Post by ajford »

nickysielicki wrote: post #89
sanp wrote: post #14

I still don't get that TCO for EV is higher than Diesel. On the consumer side, let's look at Tesla Model Y vs. Lexus RX 350. I am using "premium" makes on both sides of this equations. If we want to go with a cheaper ICE then it should be compared with a cheaper EV. Idea being, there is a reasonable comparison where EV comes out ahead on TCO. Cost / mile: $0.04 vs. $0.10 Difference in purchase cost: $55K (base model…

In what world is the maintenance cost for a fleet of EV busses going to be less than that of a diesel? There are two orders of magnitude more diesel mechanics than people qualified to work on EV drivetrains.

There's far less going on in a normal EV drivetrain, which kinda supports the lower maintenance cost.

Fewer fluids required, just your differential and some coolant for the motors really.

Given the specialization of parts, it's far more likely that any performed maintenance is going to be more of a swap for known-good parts and sending them off to the home-office for reconditioning.

Re: US schools can subscribe to an electric bus fleet at lower prices than diesel

#160

Post by thethethethe »

rootusrootus wrote: post #142
mcv wrote: post #132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not driving would mean smaller schools closer to home, and infrastructure that allows kids to ride their bike to school. It's completely doable, but it does require people to care about more than just cars.

It would significantly expand taxes, and that nearly always faces stiff opposition with voters. Especially when it is an open-ended increase.

> It would significantly expand taxes

How exactly? Do you have any examples? Also, have you ever seen the price of car infrastructure? I would be willing to bet that denser walkable urban infrastructure projects are waaaaay cheaper than building and maintaining sprawling road, sewage, and power transmission networks. Sprawl is seriously draining the finances of many small cities and towns in the US. There's a whole book about it: https://www.google.com/search?q=strong+towns

You could also just watch this smug video https://youtu.be/7IsMeKl-Sv0

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