US schools can subscribe to an electric bus fleet at lower prices than diesel • Hacker News Board

Re: US schools can subscribe to an electric bus fleet at lower prices than diesel

#51

Post by roughly » Fri, Mar 18, 2022, 7:46 PM UTC

arcticbull wrote: post #39

Nasrudith wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So like city buses?

Not really, no. City busses recognize revenue from advertising and use it to subsidize fares. Being a public service, the public benefits. On the other hand, private bus fleets with private advertisements on loan to school districts will recognize that advertising revenue as profit, benefiting shareholders. Not everything needs a profit motive.

I don't know what the split is elsewhere, but it's worth noting that for BART in the Bay Area, at least, makes something like $10m/yr, compared to nearly $500m/yr in actual fares - so, in exchange for approximately 2% of annual revenues, we get BART trains and stations covered in ads.

Edit: Thought to look this up for SFMTA - 2020 proposed budget (projections as of 2019, chosen because it's the last "normal" year) - total revenue $1.2Bn, "Advertising, interest, and service fees" $54m.

Re: US schools can subscribe to an electric bus fleet at lower prices than diesel

#52

Post by sremani » Fri, Mar 18, 2022, 7:46 PM UTC

elihu wrote: post #30

Apparently there's an important patent on lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries that expires next month (on April 27th). I'm hoping that changes the economics on batteries and that LFPs become cheap and abundant, and widely available from a variety of manufacturers that aren't located in China. LFP seems like the obvious choice for large vehicles like buses unless there's some reason to really need to optimize for r…

I do not know if we are in a commodity super-cycle but Li price is brrrrrrr.

https://www.dailymetalprice.com/metalpricecharts.php?c=li&u=...

The days of falling battery prices in dollar terms are over.

Re: US schools can subscribe to an electric bus fleet at lower prices than diesel

#53

Post by xxpor » Fri, Mar 18, 2022, 7:46 PM UTC

elihu wrote: post #30

Apparently there's an important patent on lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries that expires next month (on April 27th). I'm hoping that changes the economics on batteries and that LFPs become cheap and abundant, and widely available from a variety of manufacturers that aren't located in China. LFP seems like the obvious choice for large vehicles like buses unless there's some reason to really need to optimize for r…

Yes, that's a great point. Even if you ignore the usual idle time between the morning and afternoon runs, I have to imagine a range of 150-200 miles would cover ~95% of use cases. The bus problem therefore should be much easier than the long haul truck problem. Plus, there's no trailer so you could run the battery pack the entire length of the bus.

Re: US schools can subscribe to an electric bus fleet at lower prices than diesel

#54

Post by joe_the_user » Fri, Mar 18, 2022, 7:47 PM UTC

bell-cot wrote: post #2

Hmm...buses that (per the article) cost 2x or 3x what diesel ones would. From a company that's raising a whole lotta $$$ from VC's. And (plausibly) school districts will get rid of their old diesel bus fleets when they switch over... Is anyone else suspecting an "of course we'll loose money like crazy, until we hit 'em with the massive price increase" business model? EDIT: Wow, huge response. 3 points to add: - Yes,…

A fair portion of school districts already contract their buses to First Student and similar bus companies. And if this company were to raise it's rates drastically, the districts could switch to First Student.

Re: US schools can subscribe to an electric bus fleet at lower prices than diesel

#55

Post by PaulHoule » Fri, Mar 18, 2022, 7:47 PM UTC

thehappypm wrote: post #33

bnt wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yea, here the batteries catch fire and a bunch of kids burn to death. Grim, but possible.

Right, because diesel buses are totally not flammable at all.

I bought a number of plastic "jerry cans" that all had stickers on them saying you shouldn't use gasoline or diesel to start fires.

Oddly the reason why is different for the two fluids. Gasoline can catch fire quickly and form a fireball, whereas diesel is hard to ignite and won't help start a fire.

This movie

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_5th_Wave_(film)

has a scene where the kids set a school bus on fire with the fuel which isn't realistic.

Re: US schools can subscribe to an electric bus fleet at lower prices than diesel

#56

Post by xxpor » Fri, Mar 18, 2022, 7:47 PM UTC

speedgoose wrote: post #50

elihu wrote: post #30

Apparently there's an important patent on lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries that expires next month (on April 27th). I'm hoping that changes the economics on batteries and that LFPs become cheap and abundant, and widely available from a variety of manufacturers that aren't located in China. LFP seems like the obvious choice for large vehicles like buses unless there's some reason to really need to optimize for r…

Is safety a criteria for school bus in USA? I thought it was only cost since the design is from the last century and many bus don’t even have seatbelts.

Seat belts have been required in some states for decades at this point. We had them on buses when I was in elementary school 20 years ago, in NJ.

Now... getting kids to actually use them is a different matter.

Re: US schools can subscribe to an electric bus fleet at lower prices than diesel

#57

Post by treeman79 » Fri, Mar 18, 2022, 7:47 PM UTC

roywiggins wrote: post #27

woodruffw wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think that's pretty unlikely, at least with schoolbuses. The US has laws around child privacy and advertising that companies easily flaunt online, but are much more difficult to flaunt when your product is a physical bus. OTOH, I would not be surprised to see these buses rusting in a storage lot within a decade because these firms have closed up shop and some random server somewhere is no longer responding to reque…

In the '90s the dairy industry managed to get "got milk" posters into approximately every US elementary school.

Milk was my one true vice. Swear the stuff is more addictive them anything. Yes I’m boring.

Spent many years thinking it was healthy. Much regret.

Re: US schools can subscribe to an electric bus fleet at lower prices than diesel

#58

Post by [deleted] » Fri, Mar 18, 2022, 7:48 PM UTC

bell-cot wrote: post #2

Hmm...buses that (per the article) cost 2x or 3x what diesel ones would. From a company that's raising a whole lotta $$$ from VC's. And (plausibly) school districts will get rid of their old diesel bus fleets when they switch over... Is anyone else suspecting an "of course we'll loose money like crazy, until we hit 'em with the massive price increase" business model? EDIT: Wow, huge response. 3 points to add: - Yes,…

[deleted]

Re: US schools can subscribe to an electric bus fleet at lower prices than diesel

#59

Post by xxpor » Fri, Mar 18, 2022, 7:49 PM UTC

sanp wrote: post #14

I still don't get that TCO for EV is higher than Diesel. On the consumer side, let's look at Tesla Model Y vs. Lexus RX 350. I am using "premium" makes on both sides of this equations. If we want to go with a cheaper ICE then it should be compared with a cheaper EV. Idea being, there is a reasonable comparison where EV comes out ahead on TCO. Cost / mile: $0.04 vs. $0.10 Difference in purchase cost: $55K (base model…

A tesla won't get the tax credit any more (they've sold too many cars). Unless that's changed with one of the covid packages.

Re: US schools can subscribe to an electric bus fleet at lower prices than diesel

#60

Post by kube-system » Fri, Mar 18, 2022, 7:49 PM UTC

bnt wrote: post #10

sockaddr wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While not ideal, the alternative is kids continuing to sit in buses that idle for long periods of time slowly leaking diesel exhaust into the cabin area (at least that was the case with the Bluebird models I rode as a kid), that can't be good.

Yea, here the batteries catch fire and a bunch of kids burn to death. Grim, but possible.

Fire risk is a major reason why we already put as many as 8 or more emergency exits on full size school busses.