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Francis Fukuyama: Preparing for Defeat

americanpurpose.com

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Re: Francis Fukuyama: Preparing for Defeat

#221

Post by unethical_ban »

pphysch wrote: post #83
zozbot234 wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Realist" IR theory in general misses the importance of self-sustaining structures, systems and institutions. The peaceful international order itself is a cooperatively self-sustaining institution, and this handily explains why a huge amount of countries which benefit from a workable international order are reacting so quickly to Russia's actions.

How do you rationalize 'the West just loves peace' (paraphrasing) with our current policy of funneling huge amounts of weapons to back an Ukrainian insurgency, and the resolute opposition to Ukraine surrendering and saving thousands of lives on any terms?

How do you think "rewarding a warmonger for his boldness by handing him what he wants" wouldn't encourage more death later?

Re: Francis Fukuyama: Preparing for Defeat

#222

Post by BlueTemplar »

phtrivier wrote: post #219
BlueTemplar wrote: post #189

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If NATO won't, then it's worthless. Also, even if USA gets cold feet, there's at least one nuclear armed country in Europe that can potentially get conquered by Russia down the line, and so would be more willing to act.

Do you believe Putin will be detered by French or British nukes ? That's not who they're designed to deter. And yes, in this situation I fear NATO membership would prove worthless to Baltics. Turns out there is a "winning move" : being the only one to play.

Why wouldn't he be deterred by British/French nukes ? It doesn't take many of them to wipe out the biggest cities of any country...

Re: Francis Fukuyama: Preparing for Defeat

#223

Post by wolverine876 »

mardifoufs wrote: post #191
wolverine876 wrote: post #183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russia itself and military experts around the world expected a Russian victory within a few days. Ukraine of course isn't doing well in absolute terms - they'd be much better off if like the rest of the world they weren't being attacked! But in relative and military terms, they are doing extraordinarily well and have a very good chance to win, maybe without even having to fight a long insurgency. That's incredible gi…

The Battle for Baghdad started when they reached the city 3 weeks in, so my original wasn't 100% correct, but it was only off by a day or two. Obviously, not every war is the same but the ukrainian army is much stronger than the iraqi army in 2003 (it was in shambles after the 1991 defeat). The American also were much more liberal on their use of airstrikes in urban areas and in general were a lot more competent, so…

> The Battle for Baghdad started when they reached the city 3 weeks in, so my original wasn't 100% correct, but it was only off by a day or two.

That's accurate enough for what I meant.

> The American also were much more liberal on their use of airstrikes in urban areas

That's only true because Russia is shooting missiles (including from planes) and artillery, and keeping their planes away from Ukrainian anti-air defenses. Russia has been attacking civilian areas indiscriminately, by all reports, and I remember nothing like that from the US invasion of Iraq (there was hardly time - the US swept in relatively easily). Also, the US used precision guided weapons, which do far less 'unintended' damage.

> Just compare the rag tag group of completely disorganized soldiers barely able to capture Georgia to what is now an actual fighting force.

In reaction to the Georgia invasion, Russia invested in a major reform of their military. It hasn't worked well. Corruption, in particular, is hard to overcome, and non-democracies have a much more difficult time with it.

Re: Francis Fukuyama: Preparing for Defeat

#224

Post by wolverine876 »

kingofpandora wrote: post #195
wolverine876 wrote: post #181

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm pretty certain that isn't close to true. Do you have any numbers? Look at the state of Afghan and Iraqi cities - do they look like Dresden?

Mosul and Raqqa sure did.

IIRC that was infantry and supporting fire, not a bombing campaign of precision-guided weapons. Still, an important point.

Re: Francis Fukuyama: Preparing for Defeat

#225

Post by nickpinkston »

disk0 wrote: post #162
nickpinkston wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yea, that was my first thought too. Now I'm expecting him to write: "The End of the End of the End of History".

"The End of the End of History"[0] is a thing, so it's only a matter of time now for his response /s [0]: https://bungacast.com/book/

Yea, I this is what I was referencing - thanks!
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