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Francis Fukuyama: Preparing for Defeat

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Re: Francis Fukuyama: Preparing for Defeat

#211

Post by kavalg »

WJW wrote: post #29

An interesting development in the past few days is that both sides have been testing how far they can take escalation. For example Russia has stated that arming the Ukrainians would be seen as an act of war, but numerous NATO countries have done so anyway and nothing more than strong words has followed. It is also widely accepted that NATO has been supplying the Ukrainians with satellite imagery and the like. OTOH, s…

You do realize that a nuclear exchange may involve the US on the receiving side right and not only Eastern European part of NATO right?

Re: Francis Fukuyama: Preparing for Defeat

#212

Post by vogre »

netsharc wrote: post #44
ilamont wrote: post #18

This is at least true in the north; the Russians are doing better in the south, but those positions would be hard to maintain if the north collapses. I'm puzzled why more attention isn't focused on Russia's progress in the south and naval superiority. They clearly want Ukraine and the world to accept its annexation of Crimea and bolstering the zone around it is shaping up to be a point of negotiation, as they made cl…

Say Ukraine surrenders and Putin gets what he wants, and the shooting stops, new borders are drawn and soldiers from both sides retreat. I can't see how Putin gets out of the economic war, though. EU and US voters will never accept their governments cancelling sanctions, and they'll boycott businesses who announce they're returning to Russia (they won't anyway, if SWIFT doesn't work and money can't flow easily). What…

> EU and US voters will never accept their governments cancelling sanctions

They will when they see their gas and food bills. Everyone is hawk in social networks and enjoys its moral justice, but for many workers in Europe these sanctions mean closing their businesses and increasing paychecks. Of course everyone can say that Ukraine has right to join NATO, but how much are you ready to pay for this right?

For most of people these events are only important when they are all over [social] media. Most of the people who call for immediate beginning of WW3 will forget about it when media will start the Next Big Story(China? US elections?).

How many of enraged US citizens can show Ukraine on the map? Who was in the context of Russo-Ukrainian relationships month ago? When the wartime propaganda is over, people will find a way to collaborate.

Re: Francis Fukuyama: Preparing for Defeat

#213

Post by vogre »

hackerfromthefu wrote: post #158
netsharc wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Say Ukraine surrenders and Putin gets what he wants, and the shooting stops, new borders are drawn and soldiers from both sides retreat. I can't see how Putin gets out of the economic war, though. EU and US voters will never accept their governments cancelling sanctions, and they'll boycott businesses who announce they're returning to Russia (they won't anyway, if SWIFT doesn't work and money can't flow easily). What…

Frankly as a consumer I'm going to make efforts to avoid Indian and Chinese goods where possible.

You should also avoid goods made in Indonesia and Turkey.

Re: Francis Fukuyama: Preparing for Defeat

#214

Post by mistermann »

netsharc wrote: post #44
ilamont wrote: post #18

This is at least true in the north; the Russians are doing better in the south, but those positions would be hard to maintain if the north collapses. I'm puzzled why more attention isn't focused on Russia's progress in the south and naval superiority. They clearly want Ukraine and the world to accept its annexation of Crimea and bolstering the zone around it is shaping up to be a point of negotiation, as they made cl…

Say Ukraine surrenders and Putin gets what he wants, and the shooting stops, new borders are drawn and soldiers from both sides retreat. I can't see how Putin gets out of the economic war, though. EU and US voters will never accept their governments cancelling sanctions, and they'll boycott businesses who announce they're returning to Russia (they won't anyway, if SWIFT doesn't work and money can't flow easily). What…

> EU and US voters will never accept their governments cancelling sanctions, and they'll boycott businesses who announce they're returning to Russia

I'm skeptical - if millions of minds can by synchronized upon an idea in the first place, I don't see why the same techniques necessarily can't be used to synchronize them upon a new idea. I mean, is this not fundamentally how "reality" works: mass synchronization of minds by training them with data (information)?

Re: Francis Fukuyama: Preparing for Defeat

#215

Post by WJW »

kavalg wrote: post #211
WJW wrote: post #29

An interesting development in the past few days is that both sides have been testing how far they can take escalation. For example Russia has stated that arming the Ukrainians would be seen as an act of war, but numerous NATO countries have done so anyway and nothing more than strong words has followed. It is also widely accepted that NATO has been supplying the Ukrainians with satellite imagery and the like. OTOH, s…

You do realize that a nuclear exchange may involve the US on the receiving side right and not only Eastern European part of NATO right?

I live in Europe myself, so yes the possibility of my own home being bombed is very much something I'm aware of.

Re: Francis Fukuyama: Preparing for Defeat

#216

Post by acjohnson55 »

srvmshr wrote: post #6

Another counterview has emerged from Meduza, the press group which was 'blocked' in Russia as part of their silencing drive. https://meduza.io/en/feature/2022/03/12/has-russia-s-invasio... Apparently, according to Meduza we are only seeing the bright side of things - the news we want to hear. The battlefront has several other shock surprises if you look at the Ukrainian losses. It seems bleeding heavily on both sides…

I find that unsurprising. I don't think anyone is imagining that the Ukrainians are going to repulse the Russians. The Russians will make inexorable progress of taking territory and destroying or expelling Ukrainian battlefield units. But it seems pretty unlikely to me that they'll be able to fully pacify even the Eastern half of the country. And the question is how long can they keep their warfare up as the sanctions cripple the Russian economy and ability to supply their military.

I don't think Ukraine is going to settle for anything that leaves them unprotected. Maybe they'll exchange eastern and coastal land for the ability to join NATO and the EU.

Re: Francis Fukuyama: Preparing for Defeat

#217

Post by gumby »

_dps wrote: post #193
gumby wrote: post #166

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Mearsheimer's getting a lot of airplay right now, but his analysis is straight out of the 19th century "great game" -- Ukraine is hardly even mentioned. His reasoning is all about the territorial conflicts of the "great powers". In reality Russia is a small, poor, and mostly irrelevant state, mainly getting airtime because it has nukes. Without the nukes it would be taken as seriously as other countries of its econom…

Russia provides something like 20% of global wheat supply, something like 15% of global agricultural supplement input, and something like 12.5% of global oil/gas. They also have an enormous intellectual human capital history — the soviet era physicists and mathematicians were definitely peers to their western counterparts, which is to say nothing of their literature. And finally, they have top-tier homegrown armament…

They are far far from an imperial power though, and haven’t really been one since the mid sixties, perhaps earlier. They should just face the music as onetime apex predator Britain has. Italians are proud of their Roman forebears but have no pretensions of contemporary imperial greatness. Likewise Turkey.

Re: Francis Fukuyama: Preparing for Defeat

#218

Post by frozencell »

srvmshr wrote: post #198
frozencell wrote: post #194

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Public national crypto identity ledger. Soldiers cannot fake signatures between the ECG or a body implant and the government chain. For most of the casualties, it can provide truth more trustful than government news. How could government or soldiers lie here?

frozencell, just stop it already man. You are making terribly outlandish & insensitive suggestions. Period. This is a real war. People are getting bombed. No one has the time for monitoring EKG bands. Evacuation is looking bad already. This is not a video game where you monitor player's health stats. Instead of apologizing you are simply doubling down on your crazy remarks.

Let unzoom and think of wars in general, how could 3D vision helmets synchronise with ECG to have physical-first proofs of damage?

By the way, this thread is not developed for emotional or entertainment but technology purpose, they are NGOs to refer to fortunately for the first; and only NGO online security is not really off-topic here.

[0] https://www.peopleinneed.net/what-we-do/humanitarian-aid-and...

Re: Francis Fukuyama: Preparing for Defeat

#219

Post by phtrivier »

BlueTemplar wrote: post #189
phtrivier wrote: post #161

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree that Lviv seems western enough to be spared bombing (since I assume Putin just want the east, and the attention over Kyiv.) Yeah, sure, Finland is fine, as soon as Putin would laid a hand on it, there would be a strong response from... Oh, wait no one. But Estonia, yeah, sure, NATO would jump to trigger WWWIII over Tallin. I can already picture Joe Biden explaining to US voters why they'll have to deal with a…

If NATO won't, then it's worthless. Also, even if USA gets cold feet, there's at least one nuclear armed country in Europe that can potentially get conquered by Russia down the line, and so would be more willing to act.

Do you believe Putin will be detered by French or British nukes ? That's not who they're designed to deter.

And yes, in this situation I fear NATO membership would prove worthless to Baltics.

Turns out there is a "winning move" : being the only one to play.

Re: Francis Fukuyama: Preparing for Defeat

#220

Post by fmajid »

> The Polish MiGs in particular would not add much to Ukrainian capabilities. Much more important is a continuing supply of Javelins, Stingers, TB2s, medical supplies, comms equipment, and intel sharing.

Yes, MiGs, like all manned fighters, are as relevant today in the age of the drone as battleships were during WWII (and arguably the Japanese did us a favor at Pearl Harbor by definitively discrediting the battleship die-hard dead wood in the Navy).

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