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Tell HN: China Is Entering Lockdown

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Re: Tell HN: China Is Entering Lockdown

#71

Post by user_named »

em500 wrote: post #66
user_named wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mentioned this in my OP. It is becoming clear also to policy makers that these measures are not enough for omicron, and also are not logical when the strain is so mild.

Omicron is not "so mild". It appeared to be mild in many other countries due to high vaccination rates and/or prior infections/deaths. This is not the case in China, where prior infections are very rare. And although the headline stats for the initial 2-dose vaccination rates are good, they didn't use the more effective mRNA vaccines, probably don't have a high recent booster rate, and most crucially, the vaccination…

Hong Kong and mainland are totally different. Vaccination rate is very high here and you have been able to get booster shots for months. I agree with your second paragraph though.

Re: Tell HN: China Is Entering Lockdown

#72

Post by user_named »

chii wrote: post #63
user_named wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it's the opposite. Chinas economy was quickly back to normal in 2020 while other countries suffered. But it's going to be costly this time, for little return.

The chinese people are probably more conservative and will likely self-lockdown if the gov't doesn't handle the situation well by locking down early. I think it's probably a better idea to give the populous assurances and demonstrate that outbreaks are contained, so that the populous return after the lockdown with confidence to go out and resume economic activity.

Exactly.

Re: Tell HN: China Is Entering Lockdown

#74

Post by z3t111 »

teruakohatu wrote: post #68

In New Zealand we are currently experiencing our first wave, by captia our case numbers are insane, and reality is vastly higher than what is being reported because the system now relies on self reporting from RAT tests. In an hour we have as many new cases as we had in total in the first two years of COVID. But life is going on as semi-normal, most people are being reasonably responsible. 96% of the 12 yr+ populatio…

"I would be think China would have at least as good vaccination stats as New Zealand"

This is probably not true. The Chinese vaccines are known to be much less effective.

Re: Tell HN: China Is Entering Lockdown

#76

Post by elric »

user_named wrote: post #40
elric wrote: post #36

Only a thousand daily cases in a country with a population of 1G? That's either very impressive, or very impressively underreported. For comparison, Belgium currently has 10 times as many daily new cases, with a population that's 100 times smaller (and no lockdown).

Quoted post unavailable.

I don't necessarily disagree with that statement, but it'd be nice if you backed it up with some actual examples.

Re: Tell HN: China Is Entering Lockdown

#77

Post by user_named »

strogonoff wrote: post #52
captainmuon wrote: post #20

But even now, given that China is such a huge country, I think that the fraction of people inconvenienced by lockdown measures and other disturbances is smaller than in most western countries. Here in Germany, they are lifting most restrictions soon, but for example a lot of teachers are sick - which affects the childrens' parents as they can't go to work, and then their colleagues, and so on. It will take a long tim…

Can we trust disease statistics coming out of a system where everybody from regular citizens to local officials is incentivized to not report possible COVID cases? There is a reason fever medication in China had been selling so well that the government wanted to control its sales (don’t know if they ended up going there or not), while the country reported almost no COVID.

Do you trust inflation stats in the country you live in?

Re: Tell HN: China Is Entering Lockdown

#78

Post by throwaway290 »

user_named wrote: post #53
jskrablin wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which works ok if you're an island in the middle of nowhere, but it works a lot less ok if you're an EU county with people used to the idea of travelling anywhere without even having to show an ID. We've been through some pretty rough two years, but most of restrictions are now lifted or lifting. With the amount of people being either vaccinated or recovered from covid infection we should be over the whole pandemic d…

EU countries have been incredibly incompetent in their handling of covid. What you're saying about expecting to travel freely is just copium. Pretty much all EU leadership should be fired and possibly prosecuted. I'm European myself btw.

One peoples' basic freedom is another peoples' copium.

Re: Tell HN: China Is Entering Lockdown

#79

Post by mkl »

benjaminwootton wrote: post #22
captainmuon wrote: post #20

But even now, given that China is such a huge country, I think that the fraction of people inconvenienced by lockdown measures and other disturbances is smaller than in most western countries. Here in Germany, they are lifting most restrictions soon, but for example a lot of teachers are sick - which affects the childrens' parents as they can't go to work, and then their colleagues, and so on. It will take a long tim…

I imagine it’s been a pretty tough few years for the people there, and they still have to go through the full waves when their vaccines wane in effectiveness and the rest of the world gets back to normal. I didn’t envy the likes of New Zealand or China throughout because they really have no exit strategy other than eventually losing the war after multiple years of damage and hardship.

> I didn’t envy the likes of New Zealand or China throughout because they really have no exit strategy other than eventually losing the war after multiple years of damage and hardship.

I'm in NZ. It's more like multiple years of mostly normal life, while we got vaccination rates up high. The exit strategy has always been opening up again, after delaying and preparing, and that's in progress as we've now given up on containing Omicron, and currently have about 20k cases per day (well, more, as that's hitting limits of testing capacity). Graphs and numbers here: https://interactives.stuff.co.nz/2020/05/coronavirus-covid-1...

Re: Tell HN: China Is Entering Lockdown

#80

Post by snovv_crash »

captainmuon wrote: post #31
Thorentis wrote: post #12

Why are they locking down for a variant that is less severe? Why aren't they accepting this is the best we'll get, and the sooner omicron becomes endemic the better. Rip off the bandaid.

If there is no case in your region, then strict measures means life as usual. If you have a case, then you and your contacts need to quarantine. Contact tracing is extremely effective for Corona. Also remember that most people don't infect anybody, but few people are very contagious. This is to an extent still true for Omicron. The calculation for China is: inconvenience a small fraction of people, save thousands of…

These techniques worked for earlier variants, but Omicron is too virulent. I'm not sure how long it will take for China to realise this.
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