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Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

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Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#391

Post by shuntress »

chii wrote: post #349
shuntress wrote: post #257

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is a pretty big philosophical difference between a Canadian private citizen taking their own equipment to Ukraine and a Canadian soldier follows orders into Ukraine. Obviously the real world has more complexity than that. "Complain about it" could mean "We know about your tax incentives driving your citizens to fight us and we want you to end that program" but is more likely to mean "We want you to police your…

> a pretty big philosophical difference between a Canadian private citizen taking their own equipment to Ukraine and a Canadian soldier follows orders into Ukraine. and a legal quagmire. I wonder if a canadian citizen who murders someone overseas can be tried for such in canada (when they return). Because if they can be, then going overseas to participate in a war can be legally problematic, esp. unauthorized by the…

> But if this is seen as legal today, then it sets a bad precedence for private citizens going overseas to commit murder!

I don't understand what you are trying to say here. Do you mean that subjecting people to the laws of the jurisdiction in which they claim residence regardless of where their actions take place would be "bad precedence"?

In the case where an individual who claims residence in Jurisdiction A (where murder is illegal) travels to and commits murder in Jurisdiction B (where murder is illegal).

Clearly some form of "double jeopardy" would be bad and odd cases with conflicting laws can get complex.

But, overall, the notation that you abide by all laws of the land in which you claim citizenship as well as the land in which you currently physically occupy seems to be a "good precedence".

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#392

Post by AlwaysRock »

SiNiquity wrote: post #308
AlwaysRock wrote: post #203

Earlier quoted context omitted.

100% this. I remember the USA's "Mission Accomplished" line/speech and the years of American propaganda that followed which said we were doing great things in the middle east. In reality we blew up a lot of people (soldiers and civilians), cities, and spent a shit load of money to accomplish what? I'm very skeptical of any news coming from either side currently.

There's a limit to open mindedness. Ukraine is not "luring [the Russian military] into [its] cities," they're defending their cities from an invading force.

Sure. I'm very skeptical that Ukraine is luring the Russian military into their cities. That is my point. I'm skeptical of news from both sides because there is a lot of propaganda involved in war news.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#393

Post by shuntress »

hansvm wrote: post #356
chii wrote: post #349

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> a pretty big philosophical difference between a Canadian private citizen taking their own equipment to Ukraine and a Canadian soldier follows orders into Ukraine. and a legal quagmire. I wonder if a canadian citizen who murders someone overseas can be tried for such in canada (when they return). Because if they can be, then going overseas to participate in a war can be legally problematic, esp. unauthorized by the…

Most laws apply to people within the territory of a country, not to citizens of that country wherever they may be, and extradition typically is used when the law was broken in some country and the offender fled, not when the offense was committed elsewhere. For what it's worth, I think the counter-examples are a worrying trend. Is there a good reason why any country willing to claim you as a citizen should have a rig…

I think the key factor here is individual consent.

Russia cannot just declare that every person is a Russian citizen and therefor subject to Russian laws. (I mean... they can but it would obviously be in bad faith)

But it does make sense that people who themselves claim and hold Russian citizenship be subject to Russian laws and that if they do not wish to be so, they renounce their citizenship.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#394

Post by s1artibartfast »

Seb-C wrote: post #378
s1artibartfast wrote: post #340

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You have to reconsider who is the bully given the number of countries invaded, governments toppled, and civilians killed by the US in the last 30 years. The US takes the cake in all categories, but of course we aren't a bully, all the people we kill were the bullies. We are the strongest so we define who is a bully or not. >We should have snuffed them out like cockroaches. Instead we let them live. To our detriment.…

The difference is that the US does not conquer, colonize, or annex the territories where they fight. It's even quite the opposite, since they usually try to give them freedom, independence and long term stability (with variable success and moral standing, but still)...

If that is how you feel about the US motivations and results, then I don't think we will be able to see eye-to-eye on these more specific issue.

I have a much more cynical view of US military interventions, in which they are largely self serving. The ideas of freedom, independence, and stability are platitudes to sell the war, are rarely align with the outcomes for the people in those countries.

The US did a good job of building liberal democracies after WWII, and perhaps up to the Vietnam war. If you look at countries in the last 50 years, the outcomes for the countries the US went into is quite poor.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#395

Post by cbdumas »

s1artibartfast wrote: post #297
testrun wrote: post #289

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Lithuanians disagrees. This is why they applied for EU and NATO membership as quickly as they can. The Baltic states also was the first to leave the USSR. They always wanted to be free.

Reread my response. I said if I was Lithuanian I would probably apply. Sounds like they think the way I said they do.

Apply to what? Lithuania has been a NATO member since 2004. This is literally the "eastward advance of NATO" which you referred to as a "moral mistake". You contradict yourself.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#396

Post by s1artibartfast »

frankharv wrote: post #388
s1artibartfast wrote: post #351

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not absolving anyone. It is a fucked situation. The hypocrisy of people saying they "should have snuffed them out like cockroaches" after 50 years of US atrocities is just astounding. Russia is a bully, but the US is 10x worse. Ukraine is the looser here. The US intentionally played them like a pawn and use their lives to get more leverage against Russia.

I am sorry for the tone of that offensive sentence. Perhaps I should have expressed the feeling in a more diplomatic wording. We did have them against the mat and let them up. Howz that for a PC version. There was cold war and we could have defeated the opponent. Instead we funded them.

>There was cold war and we could have defeated the opponent.

What does that mean in concrete terms? An invasion and occupation of Russia after the fall of the USSR? An extermination of the Russian people?

What would a more complete defeat looks like?

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#397

Post by s1artibartfast »

cbdumas wrote: post #395
s1artibartfast wrote: post #297

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Reread my response. I said if I was Lithuanian I would probably apply. Sounds like they think the way I said they do.

Apply to what? Lithuania has been a NATO member since 2004. This is literally the "eastward advance of NATO" which you referred to as a "moral mistake". You contradict yourself.

You misunderstand.

The question of what is a strategic and moral mistake for this US is entirely separate from what makes Lithuania happy.

If someone asks me how I would feel if I were Russian, Lithuanian, or Chinese I provide an answer from that perspective. That doesn't mean I agree with it or it is moral.

To be absolutely clear, I can understand why Lithuania would want to be part of NATO, but I do not think it was wise or moral for the US to grant such a request.

This is not a radical position, and was held by many NATO members at the time. They required significant persuasion from the US to allow Lithuania entry to NATO.

Similarly, France, Germany, and many NATO countries did not want to open the door to Georgia and Ukraine in 2008. They felt that it would lead to war in Europe. Again they were overruled by the US and we got a war in Georgia in 2008, the annexation of Crimea in 2014, and the largest war in Europe since WW2 today.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#398

Post by kyriakos »

ant6n wrote: post #384
mariuolo wrote: post #267

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Offer immediate provisional citizenship/asylum to anyone who immigrated to fight. Ukraine is not a wealthy country. Who might consider citizenship so desirable to risk his life over it?

If Ukraine wins, that Ukraine citizenship is gonna be an EU citizenship in a couple of years.

Very unlikely for Ukraine to be fast tracked before countries which are already on their way to become EU members (like North Macedonia and Albania) and those are 5 years away. A lot of reforms are needed and can't happen overnight especially due to its size and population. It is probably going to happen if Ukraine comes out a winner but we are realistically looking at a decade away.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#399

Post by env123 »

I'll tell you straight-up: this was written to increase morale for Ukraine. Whether Kyiv fall or walled up to Russian forces has yet to happen. It's still too early in the siege to make up these predictions

I could imagine Russian propaganda pulling up statistics saying Kyiv will fall soon

Also, too many people here do not understand geopolitics - the aim of invading Ukraine is to speed up the process of Russia's demands:

- Ukraine never joining NATO

- Donbas and Crimea ceding to Russia w/ Ukraine losing claim to them

It's not about fully invading Ukraine and ceding the whole state, because that would be a bigger problem for Russia if it does so

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#400

Post by hansvm »

shuntress wrote: post #393
hansvm wrote: post #356

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most laws apply to people within the territory of a country, not to citizens of that country wherever they may be, and extradition typically is used when the law was broken in some country and the offender fled, not when the offense was committed elsewhere. For what it's worth, I think the counter-examples are a worrying trend. Is there a good reason why any country willing to claim you as a citizen should have a rig…

I think the key factor here is individual consent. Russia cannot just declare that every person is a Russian citizen and therefor subject to Russian laws. (I mean... they can but it would obviously be in bad faith) But it does make sense that people who themselves claim and hold Russian citizenship be subject to Russian laws and that if they do not wish to be so, they renounce their citizenship.

One might hope that consent would be the defining feature, but that's not how citizenship currently works. People become accidental citizens all the time, and the process for undoing the harm that causes is often lengthy and expensive.
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