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Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

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Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#281

Post by WouterZ »

trhway wrote: post #228
jjulius wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>There was also a report that Russia had summoned foreign ambassadors in Moscow to complain about foreign volunteers traveling to Ukraine to fight against Russia. I am absolutely dying laughing at the absurdity of such a complaint (if true), lol.

Unfortunately, it is a big point of Russian internal propaganda which demonizes it into foreign "soldiers of fortune", "mercenaries" coming to fight Russia, basically they are making it into an additional point of how Russia in this war is basically defending itself from foreign invasion. "Ukraine is being pumped up with foreign weapons and mercenaries!". Unfortunately Russians are eating it. As a glaring example of…

This is actually relatively comforting to me. Putler is at least trying to say they are using precision strikes.

A lot harder to uphold once a tactical nuke is used... My worry after the world is so blatently defying Putler with MiGs & other armarments...

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#282

Post by pmoriarty »

otherme123 wrote: post #31
jcadam wrote: post #13

Zelensky is starting to sound like he's open to considering some of Russia's stated terms (no pursuit of NATO membership and cession of eastern Ukraine). That doesn't sound like things are going especially well for him.

Maybe Zelenskyy doesn't like thousand of Ukraines dying for some inflated ego, potentially millions. That solution, and specially if acompanied with guarantees of no further agressions if Ukraine doesn't enter NATO or EU, is a win for the country, and a pyrric victory for Putin: his credibility is gone forever, and all he got is a small piece of terrain. Enough to sell internally as a win, but hardly anywhere else.

"if acompanied with guarantees of no further agressions if Ukraine doesn't enter NATO or EU"

Such guarantees are worthless.

It's also clear that the rest of NATO is not willing to directly fight against Russia to save Ukraine, so NATO membership for Ukraine is just as worthless.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#283

Post by throwaway_4ever »

akomtu wrote: post #53

Putin is dumb or desperate (maybe trying to score a quick victory because of some more pressing matters). All he needed to do is to assemble a big enough chunk of his army at the borders, do some maneuvers from time to time, pepper it with threatening rhetoric to keep everyone stressed, but never attack. This "psychological siege" would tank the economy of Ukraine and he could demand progressively bigger concessions.…

You have little idea how impossible it is to keep a large force deployed along the border like that full time. Huge untenable monetary cost and morale drops precipitously where intelligence communities know it's not a threat if they've been sitting there a year+.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#284

Post by HPsquared »

sillysaurusx wrote: post #151
imwillofficial wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It was not shelled, there was a small firefight involving a training building outside the reactor complex. Shelling means artillery. No artillery was involved. You did not “see the reactor get shelled live.”

Not only did the reactor get shelled, and not only did I see it live, but I was so amazed at the Russians’ stupidity that I took screenshots: https://imgur.com/a/6T7p9BD Those gigantic streaks in the lower right are shells from tanks. They certainly aren’t tracers from rifles.

The reactor buildings are to the left of the camera (out of frame).

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#285

Post by pmoriarty »

Steltek wrote: post #268
otherme123 wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe Zelenskyy doesn't like thousand of Ukraines dying for some inflated ego, potentially millions. That solution, and specially if acompanied with guarantees of no further agressions if Ukraine doesn't enter NATO or EU, is a win for the country, and a pyrric victory for Putin: his credibility is gone forever, and all he got is a small piece of terrain. Enough to sell internally as a win, but hardly anywhere else.

In terms of human lives, it's the right deal. Past that, it's the worst possible scenario: Ukraine's territory is not rightfully and completely restored while Russia's economy is nearly irrecoverable, leading it to become nothing more than a resource vassal state to China.

This war has dire global economic consequences. China's not going to get away unscathed either, as demands for its own goods will decrease as the rest of the world's economies get hit by an enormous increase in energy prices and decreased profits as companies around the world stop doing business with Russia.

The world is connected like never before and there are no unipolar winners or losers any more (if there ever were, considering the squandered individual, society-wide, and world-wide human potential when people die).

At the very least this is likely to lead to a global depression.

That's if we avoid WW3, which would devastate the entire world if it happened.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#286

Post by blibble »

pmoriarty wrote: post #278
blibble wrote: post #184

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> they can sit back and wait until they can claim Ukraine by other means when will this be exactly? Putin was living on borrowed time due to the move away from fossil fuels and his main customers are now willing to pay more explictly not to use his exports their military ambitions are now finished, permanently

"Putin was living on borrowed time due to the move away from fossil fuels and his main customers are now willing to pay more explictly not to use his exports" China will buy Russia's fossil fuels.

and as a monopsony they'll set the price

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#287

Post by inglor_cz »

twblalock wrote: post #60
InTheArena wrote: post #36

Armies have momentum. Germany almost lost in 1941 when Barbarossa failed. Hitler managed to keep his armies from disintegrating, but it was a near thing. Japan's armies went far further then they had any right too in the same period, because of the perception of invincibility, higher morale, and everyone underestimating them for racial reasons. It's very clear that the Russians badly screwed up their logistics chain…

The Russian government knew there would be sanctions no matter what happened. They had already decided to accept those even in the event of victory. They aren't in a no-win scenario either. Kyiv cannot hold out forever. The Russians have an overwhelming numeric advantage and they can simply wait out the defenders, using that time to fix their supply lines. It's tempting to exaggerate a Russian setback into a total co…

"The Russians have an overwhelming numeric advantage"

They don't, quite to the contrary. A tight siege of a city of three million would require some 500 000 troops, give or take. (Germans had 750 000 soldiers encircling Leningrad.) That would be three times as many as Russia committed to the entire theater of war.

Russian logistics are strained. They can't simply mobilize millions and somehow flood the Ukrainian territory with them.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#288

Post by pmoriarty »

paxys wrote: post #114
jcadam wrote: post #13

Zelensky is starting to sound like he's open to considering some of Russia's stated terms (no pursuit of NATO membership and cession of eastern Ukraine). That doesn't sound like things are going especially well for him.

Cession of eastern territories and Crimea is probably not going to be too difficult a decision, considering Russia controls them anyways and did so even before the war. Demilitarization of Ukraine, NATO membership and relations with the west in general are all going to be very contentious, and it's hard to see a solution here that both sides will accept.

I don't see why NATO membership for Ukraine is so contentious, considering NATO has already made it crystal clear that they won't fight Russia directly over Ukraine.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#289

Post by testrun »

s1artibartfast wrote: post #255
cbdumas wrote: post #238

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How do you think you would feel about that if you lived in Lithuania?

If I lived in Lithuania I would probably feel very scared of Russia, and not care much about what is good for NATO, the US, and the world. If I thought I would be accepted without repercussions, I would probably want that.

Lithuanians disagrees. This is why they applied for EU and NATO membership as quickly as they can. The Baltic states also was the first to leave the USSR. They always wanted to be free.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#290

Post by testrun »

rossmohax wrote: post #260
sillysaurusx wrote: post #151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not only did the reactor get shelled, and not only did I see it live, but I was so amazed at the Russians’ stupidity that I took screenshots: https://imgur.com/a/6T7p9BD Those gigantic streaks in the lower right are shells from tanks. They certainly aren’t tracers from rifles.

Did you confirm direction they are fired at?

Does it really matter? This is a firefight at a nuclear plant. An accident can easily gone either way.
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