Remember that Trump was impeached for threatening to cut off military aid to Ukraine in exchange for a personal favor. The very same military aid that has likely prevented the outright capture Ukraine by Russia.
Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%
261–270 of 419 posts
Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%
#262Earlier quoted context omitted.
Media reporting falsehoods then later correcting them doesn't mean the media isn't reporting falsehoods. Retractions always - ALWAYS - get less attention than the initial story. They aren't in the business of spreading truth, they are a business with incentives to gain people's attention.
Still a big difference with propaganda which is intentionally misleading with an agenda. For all the mentioned stories it is clear that these weren't drafted up in a backoffice (such as Putin's propaganda about the genocide in eastern Ukraine).
Donbass is being shelled for 8 years. UN recognizes more than 10,000 deaths in the conflict there. The few journalists that interviewed people there got some interviews that really describes war crimes (watched recently an italian documentary that collected testimonialsthere). Which is not surprising, since neonazi groups were integrated to Ukranian army. You may dispute that this should be classified as genocide, but there are human rights violations happening there and this is not just Russia propaganda.
Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%
#263Earlier quoted context omitted.
Probably not at all. I doubt there will be any will to invade Russia. Crimea and Donbas would be hard enough.
Aye. Attackers need 3-to-1 to overpower defenders, unless you've got some serious force-multipliers -- or so goes the thinking. UA forces are doing a good job holding out and fighting defensively, but a genuine attack will require serious concentrations of troops and equipment. Outside of local counterattacks, or maybe special forces raids (blow up rail lines, etc), large scale assaults probably aren't feasible. You…
It's like a mouse attacking a cat. The mouse might get lucky and survive an attack by a cat, but it has no chance of killing the cat.
Ukraine is also likely to lose all Western support if it attacked Russia.
If they survive at all (which is still very doubtful), they'll likely lick their wounds and try to rebuild their shattered country rather than go on the offensive in Russia proper.
Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%
#264Earlier quoted context omitted.
The west can do for the Ukrainians what Pakistan has been doing for decades for the Taliban: provide safe havens, supplies and weapons to small insurgent groups doing guerilla strikes against the Russians. The Ukraine is so large that to keep it occupied would take hundreds of thousands of troops and Russia cannot afford to keep up such mobilisation for long. They have a few months at most and properly beating an ins…
> The west can do for the Ukrainians what Pakistan has been doing for decades for the Taliban: provide safe havens, supplies and weapons to small insurgent groups doing guerilla strikes against the Russians. This would be a great tactic to reduce Ukraine to a pile of smoking rubble over a couple of decades of war. I'm not sure that's a great outcome for Ukrainians.
The will to commit Russia's military in Ukraine is pretty much Putin's alone. His narrative around the invasion was proven completely untrue within days. The sanctions are making life extremely difficult for both ordinary Russians, and for the wealthy oligarchs. Ordinary Russians are being asked to go die in a war against their Ukrainian brothers and sisters, who keep telling their Russian brothers and sisters to stop the madness and get the fuck out. And finally, Putin is 70, how much longer is he going to stay in control?
Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%
#265Earlier quoted context omitted.
Literally the second sentence of the article. Is it that hard to read before commenting on an article? > This question will resolve positively if it is publicly reported by at least three reputable media sources or from direct statements from at least four Permanent UNSC members that the majority of Kyiv's raions are under Russian military control by April 1, 2022.
That doesn't help in anyway and in fact makes things even more ambiguous. On what basis would three "reputable" media sources report that the majority of Kyiv's regions are under Russian military control?
Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%
#266Earlier quoted context omitted.
Unfortunately, it is a big point of Russian internal propaganda which demonizes it into foreign "soldiers of fortune", "mercenaries" coming to fight Russia, basically they are making it into an additional point of how Russia in this war is basically defending itself from foreign invasion. "Ukraine is being pumped up with foreign weapons and mercenaries!". Unfortunately Russians are eating it. As a glaring example of…
Russia claims their SVP-24 bomb sight with integrated computer enables high precision (3-4m accuracy) bombing with dumb bombs
That is the same unit - the same planes and pilots - who did similar bombing of civilians in Syria cities back then. On February 5 Ukraine shot down one of those planes when it was bombing the city of Chernigov. The pilot was captured - happened to be the guy infamous for his Syrian cities bombings and who was celebrated by Putin for that. https://www.unian.net/war/bombil-mirnyy-gorod-letchika-so-sb...
Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%
#267My partners and I have a couple hundred employees in Dnipro, Ukraine. Most of the employees have relocated to Poland or western Ukraine, some are sheltering in place, some are fighting. We started to source supplies last week, especially for those who are sheltering in place or fighting. During discussions with various parties across the supply chain it became clear that an enormous effort was underway by hundreds/th…
All Ukraine has to do is: 1. Offer immediate provisional citizenship/asylum to anyone who immigrated to fight. 2. Anyone in their prisons, offer them clemency if they agree to fight (bad idea I know but it works)
Ukraine is not a wealthy country. Who might consider citizenship so desirable to risk his life over it?
Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%
#268Zelensky is starting to sound like he's open to considering some of Russia's stated terms (no pursuit of NATO membership and cession of eastern Ukraine). That doesn't sound like things are going especially well for him.
Maybe Zelenskyy doesn't like thousand of Ukraines dying for some inflated ego, potentially millions. That solution, and specially if acompanied with guarantees of no further agressions if Ukraine doesn't enter NATO or EU, is a win for the country, and a pyrric victory for Putin: his credibility is gone forever, and all he got is a small piece of terrain. Enough to sell internally as a win, but hardly anywhere else.
Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%
#269Earlier quoted context omitted.
>There was also a report that Russia had summoned foreign ambassadors in Moscow to complain about foreign volunteers traveling to Ukraine to fight against Russia. I am absolutely dying laughing at the absurdity of such a complaint (if true), lol.
What do you consider funny about it? I suppose it is the difference between officially being at war and not. If some country sends fighters to support your enemy, you may start asking if you are at war with that other country, after all? So would you say it would be funny if Canada was officially at war with Russia now? Unless Russia gives up, WWIII seems to already have started, as most countries have joined in one…
As for the "country" sending fighters, in this instance, it's miss-representative. These are legit volunteers acting on there own initiatives outside of any government's call to arm, a bit like the International Brigades of the Spanish Civil war.
Lastly, Putin is a gambler, but not an idiot nor a lunatic wanting to end the world nor a leader in a desperate situation. He made a gamble in Ukraine because he knew he could somewhat get away with it (even if things are not exactly going according to plan).
He will not start a global/nuclear conflict over a silly matter like few hundreds foreign combatants acting on their own initiative, which doesn't mean he will not posture against it.
Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%
#270Earlier quoted context omitted.
All Ukraine has to do is: 1. Offer immediate provisional citizenship/asylum to anyone who immigrated to fight. 2. Anyone in their prisons, offer them clemency if they agree to fight (bad idea I know but it works)
> Offer immediate provisional citizenship/asylum to anyone who immigrated to fight. Ukraine is not a wealthy country. Who might consider citizenship so desirable to risk his life over it?