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Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

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Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#311

Post by xdennis »

s1artibartfast wrote: post #227
oezi wrote: post #219

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you clarify how are our information censored in the west? Like specifically what kind of information is actively suppressed by a government actor?

I don't have any evidence of government action so I assume it is voluntary. A simple example is I tried to Google search Ukrainian troop locations last weekend and got zero hits. A number of Wikipedia articles for historic events are also actively being revised

> A simple example is I tried to Google search Ukrainian troop locations last weekend and got zero hits.

Looks like the rumors are true: you Russians are using Google to search for targets. It's hilarious that you're complaining that this is censorship when saying "war" gets you 15 years in gaol in Russia.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#312

Post by xdennis »

tdiff wrote: post #251
helpseeker wrote: post #135

Information from either side is to be taken with a grain of salt, although Ukraine is winning the social media ops-game hands down. I think since after the 1st week of troop movements it's pretty clear: - Russia aims at encircling cities, draining the resistance there, forcing them into negotiations and so that enemy combatants can evacuate into western Ukraine (like they did in Syria) - Ukraine aims at short-term lu…

My personal impression is that Russian propaganda targets internal audience mostly, so its not fair to compare it to the Ukranians one.

You'd be surprised. While most people here in Romania are anti-Russia, some believe their propaganda that there's no war in Ukraine. They literally think that all the videos from Ukraine are fake.

It's sort of like the Cambridge Analytica thing. We live in bubbles, and we're unaware that in some bubbles the Russians are completely winning the propaganda war.

The overzealous covid response further fragmented society and led to further distrust of the media. This created a huge opportunity for Russia.

For now, it's not significant enough to matter, but it might come to bite us in the ass.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#313

Post by tyrfing »

pmoriarty wrote: post #309
tyrfing wrote: post #306

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Demilitarization and denazification" was the justification for the war, and is really the only way their full war, which has been costly in many ways, makes sense. Pre-war negotiations with NATO included demands far wider than just Ukraine. There's a chance things are being misinterpreted in terms of wording, but it sounds like demilitarization has been softened and any agreement would involve accepting the existing…

The central issue has always been Ukraine's aspirations of NATO membership. The core demand for them to abandon this aspiration has not changed.

A necessary condition, but not sufficient.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#314

Post by xdennis »

weregiraffe wrote: post #190
pixl97 wrote: post #177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This isn't WWII. The cost of war these days is insanely high and depends on a constant stream of materials. Losses also occur at a much faster rate. 800 days of drones flying over you with IR scopes means you'd run out of people to shoot at much sooner. Instead you see things like the US does where you gain air superiority, take out all command and control via decapitation attacks, and then remove all the armor from…

> Losses also occur at a much faster rate. USSR in WWII was losing on average about 5000 (five thousand) soldiers per day. So no.

GP was referring to material loses.

Ukraine shot down 4 Su-34. Russia has 134 of them. It takes years to build them.

In WW2, there were thousands of planes and tanks, but they were unsophisticated and quick to build.

The number of soldiers is also not comparable since modern armies aren't so large anymore.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#315

Post by dzikimarian »

helpseeker wrote: post #135

Information from either side is to be taken with a grain of salt, although Ukraine is winning the social media ops-game hands down. I think since after the 1st week of troop movements it's pretty clear: - Russia aims at encircling cities, draining the resistance there, forcing them into negotiations and so that enemy combatants can evacuate into western Ukraine (like they did in Syria) - Ukraine aims at short-term lu…

>Ukraine aims at short-term luring them into cities (e.g. preventing humanitarian corridors

I'm living relatively close to Ukrainian border, and helped moving Ukrainians further into the country. That's really weird not single one mentioned, that he has issues leaving due to other Ukrainians. Actually exact opposite.

Even weirder multiple people are parroting this today on HN.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#316

Post by xyproto »

sitkack wrote: post #201
aaronchall wrote: post #178

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I suspect Russia is going to have big problems with revenge-seekers.

I really really hope not. As sad as this is, revenge will only escalate things. We want to be able to have our kids talk to their grandkids about the mistake that happened and that it ended as quickly as it started.

If the conflict in Ukraine ends quickly, do you expect that to be the last invasion Putin will arrange?

Power tends to corrupt, and absolute power corrupts absolutely.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#317

Post by dekhn »

pmoriarty wrote: post #263
blaser-waffle wrote: post #236

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Aye. Attackers need 3-to-1 to overpower defenders, unless you've got some serious force-multipliers -- or so goes the thinking. UA forces are doing a good job holding out and fighting defensively, but a genuine attack will require serious concentrations of troops and equipment. Outside of local counterattacks, or maybe special forces raids (blow up rail lines, etc), large scale assaults probably aren't feasible. You…

Ukraine attacking Russia would be akin to Finland attacking the USSR during the Winter War. It's like a mouse attacking a cat. The mouse might get lucky and survive an attack by a cat, but it has no chance of killing the cat. Ukraine is also likely to lose all Western support if it attacked Russia. If they survive at all (which is still very doubtful), they'll likely lick their wounds and try to rebuild their shatter…

Except the cat is a paper tiger in this case. And my point was about mercenaries, not the Ukrainian military.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#318

Post by bratwurst3000 »

namelessoracle wrote: post #248
stickfigure wrote: post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No one is going to have anything to do with Putin after launching a nuclear first strike because he'll be dead. Along with most of the population of Russia and a big chunk of the rest of the world too. And Putin knows this. Thus, it's a bluff.

Not necessarily. There is a very real chance that a nuclear strike on a purely military target will cause a flinch by the other side. Lets say Putin nukes a carrier group at sea. This wont trigger an immediate counter attack like launching ICBMs would. Biden/whoever would have to order launching the nukes. Follow this for any usage of tactical nuclear weapons. Will he decide to end life in America and most of the wor…

I would , sadly, say he could a-bomb kiev and this would not result in total nuclear war. Why would someone bomb moscow because of that? Killing more civilians because civilians where killed?

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#319

Post by dzikimarian »

imwillofficial wrote: post #71
bostonsre wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What are some examples of "propaganda" that proved to be false a day later?

Ghost of Kiev Snake Island Soldiers Dying Heroically Nuclear Reactor Shelled, Radiation Rising

Indeed Ghost of Kiev (if doesn't really exist) is crazy-evil propaganda, comparing to the Russians invading independent country and trying to sell it as "operation" against facism.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#320

Post by nobody9999 »

MrVitaliy wrote: post #224
nobody9999 wrote: post #204

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>When has Russia ever had a transfer of power that didn't involve the use of force? Kruschev --> Brezhnev Brezhnev --> Andropov Andropov --> Chernenko Chernenko --> Gorbachev Gorbachev --> Yeltsin Yeltsin --> Putin Putin --> Medvedev Medvedev --> Putin Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_leaders_of_Russia

This list is missing Stalin wiping out most of his opposition and things like https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-14589691

Right. Which is why I didn't include him on the list.

What's your point?

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