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Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

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Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#271

Post by mockingbirdy »

nugget wrote: post #209
mockingbirdy wrote: post #183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm part of a team that does (very small-scale compared to the big NGOs) logistics (food, clothing, baby stuff, hygiene, everything) and provides/mediates shelter in the North East of Germany and sending food, first aid kits and medical supplies to the borders/directly to Ukraine with the supplies and support of the people of the city I'm living in (I'm managing one of the provisional warehouses). We have bus compani…

Yes, happy to talk with anybody involved in similar efforts so definitely reach out. My contact information is in my profile. We are mostly sourcing supplies from the US at this point. Tampa is our pack/repack and pallet departure point. We have pallet space aboard flights from Florida through Germany to Poland and Romania, available every other day or so. We have trucks in Cluj, Romania but not in Poland. Romanian a…

Your operation is amazing, mobilizing air fright is massive. I'll definitely write you, we'll try what we can to support although we're much smaller.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#272

Post by pmoriarty »

cbdumas wrote: post #238
s1artibartfast wrote: post #231

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I assume you were talking about me. I think blame is a stupid and fruitless framing for discussion. I do think the Eastward advance of NATO was a strategic and moral mistake.

How do you think you would feel about that if you lived in Lithuania?

What price is preventing WW3 worth?

I would say any price, as after WW3 civilization as we know it, if not all of humanity will perish.

It is WW3 that we are edging towards in this war over NATO membership.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#273

Post by tablespoon »

peeters wrote: post #205
tablespoon wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Please elaborate on what else the West can do? No fly-zone is a non-starter No fly-zones. It's pretty clear that falls into the category of something the West can do, but chooses not to out of fear . Because the West is afraid, Putin isn't . Stepping down from that: have Zelensky invite the west to bomb certain Ukrainian roads and bridges in Ukrainian territory that the Russians are using, then do it. Maybe even be…

> No fly-zones. It's pretty clear that falls into the category of something the West can do, but chooses not to out of fear. NATO shooting down Russian planes is war between nuclear powers. This isn't Libya. This isn't the West being afraid, it's the West acting like adults.

> NATO shooting down Russian planes is war between nuclear powers. This isn't Libya. This isn't the West being afraid, it's the West acting like adults.

That is the West being afraid, specifically of Russian escalation. They're so afraid, they've pretty much explicitly told Russia it can do whatever it wants.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#274

Post by rich_sasha »

jjulius wrote: post #128
q1w2 wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They are also getting fresh soldiers. I saw a claim from a Canadian vet in Kyiv that 40,000 foreign fighters were already in Kyiv. The Canadian was part of a 500-man exclusively Canadian urban battalion. There was also a report on BBC that Russia had summoned foreign ambassadors in Moscow to complain about foreign volunteers traveling to Ukraine to fight against Russia [1]. I've also been on Telegram channels helping…

>There was also a report that Russia had summoned foreign ambassadors in Moscow to complain about foreign volunteers traveling to Ukraine to fight against Russia. I am absolutely dying laughing at the absurdity of such a complaint (if true), lol.

“This kind of French passport, Ukrainian soldier papers, you can buy in any hobby story”.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#275

Post by pmoriarty »

tyrfing wrote: post #90
jcadam wrote: post #13

Zelensky is starting to sound like he's open to considering some of Russia's stated terms (no pursuit of NATO membership and cession of eastern Ukraine). That doesn't sound like things are going especially well for him.

There's really never been a scenario where Ukraine wins unconditionally. Russia has started backing off on their terms - it's not going well for them either. What makes a negotiated settlement very likely at this point is that Russia has started to make serious concessions and reduced their demands primarily to territorial claims.

"Russia has started to make serious concessions and reduced their demands primarily to territorial claims"

Could you link to an article which shows a Russian official making such concessions or reducing their demands?

From my own reading, Russia has just been reiterating the same demands they had all along: for Ukraine to recognize the breakaway republics and for Ukraine to give up hopes of ever joining NATO.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#276

Post by deutschew »

amanaplanacanal wrote: post #240
deutschew wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> they sure can’t do much against an enemy many times smaller than them. Neither could the US. Another factor here is that Ukraine isn't Afghanistan or Vietnam where natural barriers offer chance for insurgency to hide out, regroup. Russia here can absolutely level cities and buildings and it is impossible to construct underground tunnels in flat lands known for its ability to soak up water (the tunnels would not be…

> When you corner a wild animal like Putin you will get bitten. In this analogy, doesn't the wild animal then typically get killed?

not when it has nukes

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#277

Post by pmoriarty »

brimble wrote: post #129
tyrfing wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's really never been a scenario where Ukraine wins unconditionally. Russia has started backing off on their terms - it's not going well for them either. What makes a negotiated settlement very likely at this point is that Russia has started to make serious concessions and reduced their demands primarily to territorial claims.

If Russia can get them to give up NATO and EU ambitions, and get them to start supplying water to Crimea, they can sit back and wait until they can claim Ukraine by other means (as they already tried once, and as Belarus has gone). Conceding on that, at this point, is just delaying the Russian takeover somewhat. If Russia can't get that out of them, I expect them to demand such large territorial concessions that what…

"it won't represent the kind of relief valve from European dependence on Russia that a free and prosperous united Ukraine might"

The EU and NATO are voluntarily breaking away from dependence on Russia on many fronts as we speak.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine galvanized this process.

Peace would have been far less devastating to all the countries involved.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#278

Post by pmoriarty »

blibble wrote: post #184
brimble wrote: post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If Russia can get them to give up NATO and EU ambitions, and get them to start supplying water to Crimea, they can sit back and wait until they can claim Ukraine by other means (as they already tried once, and as Belarus has gone). Conceding on that, at this point, is just delaying the Russian takeover somewhat. If Russia can't get that out of them, I expect them to demand such large territorial concessions that what…

> they can sit back and wait until they can claim Ukraine by other means when will this be exactly? Putin was living on borrowed time due to the move away from fossil fuels and his main customers are now willing to pay more explictly not to use his exports their military ambitions are now finished, permanently

"Putin was living on borrowed time due to the move away from fossil fuels and his main customers are now willing to pay more explictly not to use his exports"

China will buy Russia's fossil fuels.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#280

Post by jcadam »

nobody9999 wrote: post #204
jcadam wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When has Russia ever had a transfer of power that didn't involve the use of force?

>When has Russia ever had a transfer of power that didn't involve the use of force? Kruschev --> Brezhnev Brezhnev --> Andropov Andropov --> Chernenko Chernenko --> Gorbachev Gorbachev --> Yeltsin Yeltsin --> Putin Putin --> Medvedev Medvedev --> Putin Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_leaders_of_Russia

Point taken. Though Putin to Medvedev and back wasn't really a transfer of power :)

Also, if you haven't seen "Death of Stalin", it's an excellent dark comedy, if a bit historically inaccurate.

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