Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

metaculus.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

201–210 of 419 posts

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#201

Post by sitkack »

aaronchall wrote: post #178
dekhn wrote: post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Eventually the question becomes "if these guest fighters are successful, at what point do they consider going north through the contested border and attacking Russian (or, more likely, Belurussian) cities?"

I suspect Russia is going to have big problems with revenge-seekers.

I really really hope not. As sad as this is, revenge will only escalate things. We want to be able to have our kids talk to their grandkids about the mistake that happened and that it ended as quickly as it started.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#202

Post by david422 »

stickfigure wrote: post #115
mullen wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nothing. A Nuclear Bluff is just that, a Bluff. Putin can't win in a nuclear war and if he uses nukes anywhere, he is done for. No one is going to have anything to do with him or Russia on any level after that.

No one is going to have anything to do with Putin after launching a nuclear first strike because he'll be dead. Along with most of the population of Russia and a big chunk of the rest of the world too. And Putin knows this. Thus, it's a bluff.

Unless he's got terminal cancer and decides he's going out with a bang. He does seem to have some jowls. I mean the guy is blatantly lying to everyone and acting irrationally as is. The problem with poker is sometimes people go all in even with shit hands.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#203

Post by AlwaysRock »

helpseeker wrote: post #135

Information from either side is to be taken with a grain of salt, although Ukraine is winning the social media ops-game hands down. I think since after the 1st week of troop movements it's pretty clear: - Russia aims at encircling cities, draining the resistance there, forcing them into negotiations and so that enemy combatants can evacuate into western Ukraine (like they did in Syria) - Ukraine aims at short-term lu…

100% this. I remember the USA's "Mission Accomplished" line/speech and the years of American propaganda that followed which said we were doing great things in the middle east. In reality we blew up a lot of people (soldiers and civilians), cities, and spent a shit load of money to accomplish what?

I'm very skeptical of any news coming from either side currently.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#204

Post by nobody9999 »

jcadam wrote: post #106
k__ wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Someone in power in Russia would see the issue and "remove" him. The replacement could then spin it as being a good replacement and play by the rules of the west.

When has Russia ever had a transfer of power that didn't involve the use of force?

>When has Russia ever had a transfer of power that didn't involve the use of force?

Kruschev --> Brezhnev

Brezhnev --> Andropov

Andropov --> Chernenko

Chernenko --> Gorbachev

Gorbachev --> Yeltsin

Yeltsin --> Putin

Putin --> Medvedev

Medvedev --> Putin

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_leaders_of_Russia

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#205

Post by peeters »

tablespoon wrote: post #61
nxm wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Please elaborate on what else the West can do? No fly-zone is a non-starter

> Please elaborate on what else the West can do? No fly-zone is a non-starter No fly-zones. It's pretty clear that falls into the category of something the West can do, but chooses not to out of fear . Because the West is afraid, Putin isn't . Stepping down from that: have Zelensky invite the west to bomb certain Ukrainian roads and bridges in Ukrainian territory that the Russians are using, then do it. Maybe even be…

> No fly-zones. It's pretty clear that falls into the category of something the West can do, but chooses not to out of fear.

NATO shooting down Russian planes is war between nuclear powers. This isn't Libya. This isn't the West being afraid, it's the West acting like adults.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#206

Post by brimble »

blibble wrote: post #184
brimble wrote: post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If Russia can get them to give up NATO and EU ambitions, and get them to start supplying water to Crimea, they can sit back and wait until they can claim Ukraine by other means (as they already tried once, and as Belarus has gone). Conceding on that, at this point, is just delaying the Russian takeover somewhat. If Russia can't get that out of them, I expect them to demand such large territorial concessions that what…

> they can sit back and wait until they can claim Ukraine by other means when will this be exactly? Putin was living on borrowed time due to the move away from fossil fuels and his main customers are now willing to pay more explictly not to use his exports their military ambitions are now finished, permanently

Multilateral agreements as part of a peace settlement are their most likely way out of the economic pain they're in now—removal of sanctions and normalization of relations with the West part of the peace agreement. I agree that their long term prospects, having blundered so badly, are now dim, but I think if they can get the right concessions out of Ukraine they'll still have salvaged a lot of their immediate goals from launching the war (probably at far too high a cost for it to have been worth it, yes, but at least it won't be a complete failure) and be in a decent position to realize further expansion before the end of their fossil fuel fortunes arrives.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#207

Post by ppvfy »

2OEH8eoCRo0 wrote: post #180
ppvfy wrote: post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not sure David Petraeus is an impartial source regarding the Iraq war, but even in that interview he avoids the claim that the majority of the Iraqi population supported the US invasion. Instead, he says that supporters of the insurgency are in the minority (you can dislike the invasion and occupation of your country by the US without supporting the Sunni insurgency or the Shia militia) and that "many millions" s…

You aren't citing anything that refutes the claim.

Do you have a source for "most supported the US"? This was your original claim and you also haven't posted a source for it.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#208

Post by actuator »

signatoremo wrote: post #186
otherme123 wrote: post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

IMHO war isn't a scale of bodies. Each side has a strategic objective(s), and winning/losing should be measured against that. Case in point: Vietnam. uSA and allies lost between 1/3 and 1/2 lifes than the North. And the USA loses were small (60.000 in a total of 1.5 million deaths). But it was a total defeat of the USA because none of the strategic objectives were achieved. Ukraine: strategic objectives are being an…

The most important objective was achieved — preventing the expansion of the communism block to other countries. Vietnam today is a market economy, the country is communist in name only. Also, please try to Vietnam. The US is very favorably perceived, more than China or Russia, although probably below European countries. In the sense, the US lost the war, but won in the end, at a very steep price, of course

It wasn't the US's intervention that succeeded in making it a "non communist" state, so the US failed in its objectives. Just because eventually Vietnam itself decided what path it wants to take doesn't mean, it was because of US.

US is perceived more favourably than China because their war with China was more recent and they have active disputes with PRC threatening island territories in South China sea.

Moreover, US has massive influence in terms of their media and their brands, something which China still doesn't match. Same reason even South Korea has massive appeal in Vietnam.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#209

Post by nugget »

mockingbirdy wrote: post #183
nugget wrote: post #76

My partners and I have a couple hundred employees in Dnipro, Ukraine. Most of the employees have relocated to Poland or western Ukraine, some are sheltering in place, some are fighting. We started to source supplies last week, especially for those who are sheltering in place or fighting. During discussions with various parties across the supply chain it became clear that an enormous effort was underway by hundreds/th…

I'm part of a team that does (very small-scale compared to the big NGOs) logistics (food, clothing, baby stuff, hygiene, everything) and provides/mediates shelter in the North East of Germany and sending food, first aid kits and medical supplies to the borders/directly to Ukraine with the supplies and support of the people of the city I'm living in (I'm managing one of the provisional warehouses). We have bus compani…

Yes, happy to talk with anybody involved in similar efforts so definitely reach out. My contact information is in my profile.

We are mostly sourcing supplies from the US at this point. Tampa is our pack/repack and pallet departure point. We have pallet space aboard flights from Florida through Germany to Poland and Romania, available every other day or so. We have trucks in Cluj, Romania but not in Poland. Romanian and Polish Governments have waived customs and we have a direct line for whatever other needs arise - they've been incredibly supportive - perhaps worried about Putin's further ambitions. Someone we know flies with the pallets from US departure and stays with them until they're handed off to someone else we know inside Ukraine who distributes to support and defense units in country. There is a lot of fraud involved in mass mobilization and cross-border transport so this level of accountability is important to us.

Very few people in Ukraine thought Putin would invade, and even if he invaded, almost nobody thought he would cross the Dnieper river (in the south) and make a run for Kiev. The Ukrainians we know, very "ordinary" people, have dug in. There is no concept in their minds of a negotiated peace that leaves Russia in control of Ukraine. They would rather fight it out. As a result it feels like it's going to get a lot worse before it gets better. We are focused on combat medical supplies at this point but as time drags on there will no doubt be a great need for food, clothing, and similar items you mentioned.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#210

Post by kaitai »

jcadam wrote: post #13

Zelensky is starting to sound like he's open to considering some of Russia's stated terms (no pursuit of NATO membership and cession of eastern Ukraine). That doesn't sound like things are going especially well for him.

As ch4s3 and otherme123 state in sibling/niece comments, it's not bad. There is a reality here that countries on Russia's border face, that can be hard to understand if you live elsewhere. All victory against/agreement with Russia is temporary. Neighbor countries need to negotiate a space that allows Russia to save face and also gives the neighbor country room to maneuver and live relatively freely. Parts of western Europe and the US preach an uninhibited national freedom, that every country should be free to do what they want without their neighbor nations interfering. This is not reality, and I speak as a citizen of a country neighboring Russia. It's like thinking on a family level that your parents should fully respect and accept you no matter how far you stray from their traditions -- sure, it's a nice modern idea, but it's not how it works unless you have an amazing relationship where you can talk through your position with respect. Russia is just not there yet. No little country next to Russia is going to talk through their national ideals and national hopes & dreams with Putin and receive his blessing, encouragement, support, unconditional acceptance. Nah, it's more negotiating an abusive relationship where you can't get out. It's nice that the whole world tells you "leave, it doesn't have to be that way, you can do better!" but geography is geography. There is no leaving.

"Better a scanty agreement than a robust battle"

Post reply on HN