Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26% • Hacker News Board

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#251

Post by tdiff » Tue, Mar 08, 2022, 7:48 PM UTC

helpseeker wrote: post #135

Information from either side is to be taken with a grain of salt, although Ukraine is winning the social media ops-game hands down. I think since after the 1st week of troop movements it's pretty clear: - Russia aims at encircling cities, draining the resistance there, forcing them into negotiations and so that enemy combatants can evacuate into western Ukraine (like they did in Syria) - Ukraine aims at short-term lu…

My personal impression is that Russian propaganda targets internal audience mostly, so its not fair to compare it to the Ukranians one.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#252

Post by jjulius » Tue, Mar 08, 2022, 7:49 PM UTC

kkjjkgjjgg wrote: post #242

jjulius wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>There was also a report that Russia had summoned foreign ambassadors in Moscow to complain about foreign volunteers traveling to Ukraine to fight against Russia. I am absolutely dying laughing at the absurdity of such a complaint (if true), lol.

What do you consider funny about it? I suppose it is the difference between officially being at war and not. If some country sends fighters to support your enemy, you may start asking if you are at war with that other country, after all? So would you say it would be funny if Canada was officially at war with Russia now? Unless Russia gives up, WWIII seems to already have started, as most countries have joined in one…

>If some country sends fighters...

Canada itself is not sending them, that is the distinction here. The humor is in a country exercising hostility by invading another country then asking people to stop coming to that country's defense, simple as that.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#253

Post by guelo » Tue, Mar 08, 2022, 7:49 PM UTC

thiagoharry wrote: post #239

kspacewalk2 wrote: post #172

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Ukraine aims at short-term luring them into cities (e.g. preventing humanitarian corridors, In what way is Ukraine "preventing" humanitarian corridors? Ukraine is requesting them daily, but Russian troops keep bombing them and disrupting the evacuation of civilians, daily.

In Mariupol there are accusations against Azov Battalion that they are preventing people to leave the city. For the defensive side it is useful to have human shield preventing attacks. In the Internet there are also videos of people being shot trying to leave the city. https://twitter.com/oulosP/status/1498365157747081218

That's the Russian propaganda. The Ukrainian propaganda says the Russians are the ones preventing people from leaving.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#254

Post by pmoriarty » Tue, Mar 08, 2022, 7:50 PM UTC

q1w2 wrote: post #108

nugget wrote: post #76

My partners and I have a couple hundred employees in Dnipro, Ukraine. Most of the employees have relocated to Poland or western Ukraine, some are sheltering in place, some are fighting. We started to source supplies last week, especially for those who are sheltering in place or fighting. During discussions with various parties across the supply chain it became clear that an enormous effort was underway by hundreds/th…

They are also getting fresh soldiers. I saw a claim from a Canadian vet in Kyiv that 40,000 foreign fighters were already in Kyiv. The Canadian was part of a 500-man exclusively Canadian urban battalion. There was also a report on BBC that Russia had summoned foreign ambassadors in Moscow to complain about foreign volunteers traveling to Ukraine to fight against Russia [1]. I've also been on Telegram channels helping…

That's really dangerous. I'm not sure that Russia will care to distinguish between current and former military personnel when it considers whether NATO countries have intervened.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#255

Post by s1artibartfast » Tue, Mar 08, 2022, 7:51 PM UTC

cbdumas wrote: post #238

s1artibartfast wrote: post #231

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I assume you were talking about me. I think blame is a stupid and fruitless framing for discussion. I do think the Eastward advance of NATO was a strategic and moral mistake.

How do you think you would feel about that if you lived in Lithuania?

If I lived in Lithuania I would probably feel very scared of Russia, and not care much about what is good for NATO, the US, and the world. If I thought I would be accepted without repercussions, I would probably want that.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#256

Post by Steltek » Tue, Mar 08, 2022, 7:52 PM UTC

weregiraffe wrote: post #190

pixl97 wrote: post #177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This isn't WWII. The cost of war these days is insanely high and depends on a constant stream of materials. Losses also occur at a much faster rate. 800 days of drones flying over you with IR scopes means you'd run out of people to shoot at much sooner. Instead you see things like the US does where you gain air superiority, take out all command and control via decapitation attacks, and then remove all the armor from…

> Losses also occur at a much faster rate. USSR in WWII was losing on average about 5000 (five thousand) soldiers per day. So no.

Russia's losses today would be much higher if they could figure out logistics. Ukraine might be running out of targets on the front lines. /s

More seriously, think about it percentage wise. Russia is losing resources (tanks, missiles, etc) in a hurry. And the floor is not "zero XYZ remaining" otherwise they would have nothing left in the entire country to defend themselves with. They only have what they allocated for their idiotic invasion and no more. Russia may already be running low on cruise missiles based on the relatively peaceful night in Kyiv.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#257

Post by shuntress » Tue, Mar 08, 2022, 7:52 PM UTC

kkjjkgjjgg wrote: post #242

jjulius wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>There was also a report that Russia had summoned foreign ambassadors in Moscow to complain about foreign volunteers traveling to Ukraine to fight against Russia. I am absolutely dying laughing at the absurdity of such a complaint (if true), lol.

What do you consider funny about it? I suppose it is the difference between officially being at war and not. If some country sends fighters to support your enemy, you may start asking if you are at war with that other country, after all? So would you say it would be funny if Canada was officially at war with Russia now? Unless Russia gives up, WWIII seems to already have started, as most countries have joined in one…

There is a pretty big philosophical difference between a Canadian private citizen taking their own equipment to Ukraine and a Canadian soldier follows orders into Ukraine.

Obviously the real world has more complexity than that. "Complain about it" could mean "We know about your tax incentives driving your citizens to fight us and we want you to end that program" but is more likely to mean "We want you to police your internal borders and prevent your citizens from traveling to Europe"

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#258

Post by tim333 » Tue, Mar 08, 2022, 7:52 PM UTC

blaser-waffle wrote: post #233

cableshaft wrote: post #221

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Meanwhile Russia is busy trying to recruit foreign soldiers themselves from Kazakhstan and Syria. Kazakhstan told them no, despite begging Russia to send their troops into their country when riots broke out a few months ago.

It's one thing to agree to remain in Russia's sphere and offer them some favorable deals -- quid pro quo for the riot thing -- but it's another thing to scrape up your own people to die in someone else's war. Plus the experience of the Chechen volunteers -- who generally got hit hard from the looks of it -- is something the Kazakhs can look at and say "nah".

Chechen volunteers now seem to be leaning towards fighting against Russia https://www.newsflare.com/video/482085/chechen-volunteers-to...

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#259

Post by terafo » Tue, Mar 08, 2022, 7:53 PM UTC

thiagoharry wrote: post #239

kspacewalk2 wrote: post #172

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Ukraine aims at short-term luring them into cities (e.g. preventing humanitarian corridors, In what way is Ukraine "preventing" humanitarian corridors? Ukraine is requesting them daily, but Russian troops keep bombing them and disrupting the evacuation of civilians, daily.

In Mariupol there are accusations against Azov Battalion that they are preventing people to leave the city. For the defensive side it is useful to have human shield preventing attacks. In the Internet there are also videos of people being shot trying to leave the city. https://twitter.com/oulosP/status/1498365157747081218

Russians shelled civilian infrastructure(water supply, power plant), and shoot everyone who was trying to fix it, they didn't let in humanitarian convoy. They shelled evacuation meeting point. Twice. And placed landmines on evacuation route. They resorted to similar tactics in previous conflicts.

And if you look at how Russians have been behaving themselves ever since this war has started, then you will realize that Azov don't need civilians as a human shield since Russians are willingly shelling and bombing civilians, and have been doing it ever since this war started. Human shield won't stop Russians.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#260

Post by rossmohax » Tue, Mar 08, 2022, 7:53 PM UTC

sillysaurusx wrote: post #151

imwillofficial wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It was not shelled, there was a small firefight involving a training building outside the reactor complex. Shelling means artillery. No artillery was involved. You did not “see the reactor get shelled live.”

Not only did the reactor get shelled, and not only did I see it live, but I was so amazed at the Russians’ stupidity that I took screenshots: https://imgur.com/a/6T7p9BD Those gigantic streaks in the lower right are shells from tanks. They certainly aren’t tracers from rifles.

Did you confirm direction they are fired at?