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Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

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Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#231

Post by s1artibartfast »

swagasaurus-rex wrote: post #223
s1artibartfast wrote: post #170

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Information from either side is to be taken with a grain of salt, although Ukraine is winning the social media ops-game hands down. At lest in the west where our information is censored to provide a Pro-Ukrainian perspective. I can only guess at how the social media ops-game is playing out in Russia and China within their own propaganda bubble.

Hint: they blame the USA and NATO for Putin invading

I assume you were talking about me. I think blame is a stupid and fruitless framing for discussion. I do think the Eastward advance of NATO was a strategic and moral mistake.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#232

Post by ChrisBland »

dekhn wrote: post #121
q1w2 wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They are also getting fresh soldiers. I saw a claim from a Canadian vet in Kyiv that 40,000 foreign fighters were already in Kyiv. The Canadian was part of a 500-man exclusively Canadian urban battalion. There was also a report on BBC that Russia had summoned foreign ambassadors in Moscow to complain about foreign volunteers traveling to Ukraine to fight against Russia [1]. I've also been on Telegram channels helping…

Eventually the question becomes "if these guest fighters are successful, at what point do they consider going north through the contested border and attacking Russian (or, more likely, Belurussian) cities?"

When you surround an army, leave an outlet free. Do not press a desperate foe too hard

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#233

Post by blaser-waffle »

cableshaft wrote: post #221
jjulius wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>There was also a report that Russia had summoned foreign ambassadors in Moscow to complain about foreign volunteers traveling to Ukraine to fight against Russia. I am absolutely dying laughing at the absurdity of such a complaint (if true), lol.

Meanwhile Russia is busy trying to recruit foreign soldiers themselves from Kazakhstan and Syria. Kazakhstan told them no, despite begging Russia to send their troops into their country when riots broke out a few months ago.

It's one thing to agree to remain in Russia's sphere and offer them some favorable deals -- quid pro quo for the riot thing -- but it's another thing to scrape up your own people to die in someone else's war.

Plus the experience of the Chechen volunteers -- who generally got hit hard from the looks of it -- is something the Kazakhs can look at and say "nah".

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#234

Post by oezi »

SamPatt wrote: post #165
jjulius wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Did you wanna include the part where outlets corrected themselves? Stories change - you do your best to verify, and then report the change once more information comes out. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/27/ukraine-island...

Media reporting falsehoods then later correcting them doesn't mean the media isn't reporting falsehoods. Retractions always - ALWAYS - get less attention than the initial story. They aren't in the business of spreading truth, they are a business with incentives to gain people's attention.

Still a big difference with propaganda which is intentionally misleading with an agenda.

For all the mentioned stories it is clear that these weren't drafted up in a backoffice (such as Putin's propaganda about the genocide in eastern Ukraine).

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#235

Post by iso1210 »

breakingcups wrote: post #138
bostonsre wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What are some examples of "propaganda" that proved to be false a day later?

It took a little longer, but the mobile crematoria were stated as fact pretty early on.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/02/23/russia-dep...

Who - UK Defence Secretary Ben Wallace makes a claim

What - Russian forces have prepared a mobile crematorium for use in any future conflict with Ukraine

Where - Ukraine

Why - to avoid the problems with bringing bodies back

When - Now

There's no claim beyond that, however they do also highlight protests from Russia about missing and dead soldiers

I haven't seen anything debunking such a claim, although I haven't seen anything backing it up either. It's a fact that Wallace made that claim, and the company involved refused to respond.

The Snake Island incident is perhaps a better example.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60522454

Which reports that

Who - Ukraine officials say

What - Russia killed their soldiers

Where - Snake Island

Why - to occupy the island

When - Recently

And they also say

Who - Russian officials say

Why - Soldiers surrendered it to them voluntarily

Where - Snake Island

Why - to occupy the island

When - recently

The BBC says the reported audio is unverified

Later events showed that at least some of the soldiers were not killed.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#236

Post by blaser-waffle »

q1w2 wrote: post #143
dekhn wrote: post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Eventually the question becomes "if these guest fighters are successful, at what point do they consider going north through the contested border and attacking Russian (or, more likely, Belurussian) cities?"

Probably not at all. I doubt there will be any will to invade Russia. Crimea and Donbas would be hard enough.

Aye. Attackers need 3-to-1 to overpower defenders, unless you've got some serious force-multipliers -- or so goes the thinking.

UA forces are doing a good job holding out and fighting defensively, but a genuine attack will require serious concentrations of troops and equipment. Outside of local counterattacks, or maybe special forces raids (blow up rail lines, etc), large scale assaults probably aren't feasible.

You only need a few NLAWs and a yoga mat to sleep on if you're fighting in Kherzon, but you'll need a lot of fighting vehicles and gas if you want to launch an offensive. See also: Russian logistical problems.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#237

Post by koonsolo »

helpseeker wrote: post #135

Information from either side is to be taken with a grain of salt, although Ukraine is winning the social media ops-game hands down. I think since after the 1st week of troop movements it's pretty clear: - Russia aims at encircling cities, draining the resistance there, forcing them into negotiations and so that enemy combatants can evacuate into western Ukraine (like they did in Syria) - Ukraine aims at short-term lu…

So what are all those Belarusian military doing there at the border?

I think they officially said they were doing exercises and will not invade Ukraine. So no worries.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#238

Post by cbdumas »

s1artibartfast wrote: post #231
swagasaurus-rex wrote: post #223

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hint: they blame the USA and NATO for Putin invading

I assume you were talking about me. I think blame is a stupid and fruitless framing for discussion. I do think the Eastward advance of NATO was a strategic and moral mistake.

How do you think you would feel about that if you lived in Lithuania?

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#239

Post by thiagoharry »

kspacewalk2 wrote: post #172
helpseeker wrote: post #135

Information from either side is to be taken with a grain of salt, although Ukraine is winning the social media ops-game hands down. I think since after the 1st week of troop movements it's pretty clear: - Russia aims at encircling cities, draining the resistance there, forcing them into negotiations and so that enemy combatants can evacuate into western Ukraine (like they did in Syria) - Ukraine aims at short-term lu…

>Ukraine aims at short-term luring them into cities (e.g. preventing humanitarian corridors, In what way is Ukraine "preventing" humanitarian corridors? Ukraine is requesting them daily, but Russian troops keep bombing them and disrupting the evacuation of civilians, daily.

In Mariupol there are accusations against Azov Battalion that they are preventing people to leave the city. For the defensive side it is useful to have human shield preventing attacks. In the Internet there are also videos of people being shot trying to leave the city.

https://twitter.com/oulosP/status/1498365157747081218

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#240

Post by amanaplanacanal »

deutschew wrote: post #59
yladiz wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> we forget that Ukraine is not just Kyiv, it is slowly being swallowed up from all directions Except we haven’t forgotten, news orgs are reporting on things happening outside of Kyiv. Russia seems to have really overplayed their hand because they were barely able to take Kherson after like a week, and can’t even take bigger cities like Kharkiv, even with intense shelling. Russia may not be a paper tiger, but they su…

> they sure can’t do much against an enemy many times smaller than them. Neither could the US. Another factor here is that Ukraine isn't Afghanistan or Vietnam where natural barriers offer chance for insurgency to hide out, regroup. Russia here can absolutely level cities and buildings and it is impossible to construct underground tunnels in flat lands known for its ability to soak up water (the tunnels would not be…

> When you corner a wild animal like Putin you will get bitten.

In this analogy, doesn't the wild animal then typically get killed?

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