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Putin may be planning to pummel Kyiv into submission

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Re: Putin may be planning to pummel Kyiv into submission

#231

Post by happytoexplain »

cf141q5325 wrote: post #116

Well yes. Artillery bombardment is THE Russian military doctrine. Any uncertainty on the headline would mean assuming Russia had developed some unusual qualms on the subject. And why would they? It seems to me that among the moral outrage people kind of lost touch with reality. There is some basic facts, take it here from the German public broadcast >According to its president, Russia is seeking the "denazification"…

You're phrasing implies that outrage is somehow naive, or that outrage is somehow mutually exclusive with realistic expectations, but I'm not sure why.

Re: Putin may be planning to pummel Kyiv into submission

#233

Post by sofixa »

MrRiddle wrote: post #228
sofixa wrote: post #200

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> So what else is the goal? How many dead Ukrainians to achieve which goal in which way For Russia to leave them alone, and however it takes. Russia's economy is falling apart, and their army is in brutally terrible shape. They couldn't possibly occupy the country, even if they manage to conquer it, which they don't seem to be able to do. So victory for Ukraine is certain, ultimately. It will take time and cost a lot…

So in other words, you’re prepared to fight to the last Ukrainian, as long as it hurts Russia?

No, Ukrainians seem to prefer to fight to the last man/woman, and considering the weaknesses that Russia reeks of, they have realistic hope.

Re: Putin may be planning to pummel Kyiv into submission

#234

Post by sofixa »

q1w2 wrote: post #222
sofixa wrote: post #200

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> So what else is the goal? How many dead Ukrainians to achieve which goal in which way For Russia to leave them alone, and however it takes. Russia's economy is falling apart, and their army is in brutally terrible shape. They couldn't possibly occupy the country, even if they manage to conquer it, which they don't seem to be able to do. So victory for Ukraine is certain, ultimately. It will take time and cost a lot…

You're so brave with other people's lives.

I'm not making the choice for anyone. Ukrainians are deciding for themselves and bravely fighting against the invaders.

Re: Putin may be planning to pummel Kyiv into submission

#235

Post by disambiguation »

hughrr wrote: post #76

Even if he succeeds in that, what is the end game? You now have an immutable hard border on one side of your country, are knee deep in sanctions which will not evaporate and another giant nation ready to take advantage of your poor position on the other side because they’re the only people who will even touch you with a 20 foot long stick. On top of that you have to now commit resources to permanently securing a whol…

This is recency bias.

We imposed sanctions after the invasion of Crimea too, those eventually went away. In time these will too.

I don't expect the West to be so well behaved that it can go on very long without cheap oil and gas.

Re: Putin may be planning to pummel Kyiv into submission

#236

Post by disambiguation »

dgellow wrote: post #74
rlt wrote: post #24

I don’t understand all the history and nuance of the situation, but I feel incredibly guilty on behalf of the west for courting Ukraine for admission to NATO / EU, but leaving them in a very precarious and vulnerable position in the meantime. It’s just an impossible and sad situation.

NATO has been quite clear for a decade that Ukraine will not be able to join. The EU also cannot accept Ukraine as a member before a very long time. Neither NATO nor the EU are courting Ukraine, Ukrainians very actively want to be part of both institutions to get some level of protection. So it’s the other way around. Of course that doesn’t make it less sad.

citation?

Re: Putin may be planning to pummel Kyiv into submission

#237

Post by disambiguation »

curiousgal wrote: post #33
shmageggy wrote: post #5

It's so incredibly sad to see this playing out exactly as many predicted and being unable to stop it (due to the threat of nuclear war). It's like standing on a train track and seeing an oncoming train miles away and yet being unable to move. So many (more) Ukrainians are about to die or suffer horribly, and much of the physical history and cultural artifacts of that city will be destroyed.

This is genuinely not an attempt at flamewar but why can't civilians just leave? Russia is obviously going to win. It's the same with Palestenians, they obviously have not and will not win against Israel. The logical thing to do is to leave, suffer but be sure that your kids will have it better. But I reckon this isn't about logic?

I think about this too.. that if I was in their shoes I would get out of there ASAP.

But this is still a very impoverished part of the world. Income per capita is ~$2k / yr.

So, most simply don't have the means to leave. I think most are counting on being able to just stay out of the way and waiting for this to "blow over".

Re: Putin may be planning to pummel Kyiv into submission

#238

Post by falcolas »

q1w2 wrote: post #220
fabian2k wrote: post #132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just because Russia has no qualms about committing war crimes and slaughtering civilians doesn't mean we can't be outraged by this. Outrage about killing civilians is entirely justified.

Outrage is entirely justified. It is also largely useless. Sanctions have material impact. Military supplies have material impact. Twitter/Reddit/HN/Facebook outrage does not have material impact.

Outrage feeds sanctions from non-government sources. It fuels citizen actions - such as donations and opening their homes. It pressures governments to do more.

Outrage is a driver of change.

Re: Putin may be planning to pummel Kyiv into submission

#239

Post by disambiguation »

jl6 wrote: post #75

I can’t understand how Putin would be able to pay for the reconstruction costs of the immense damage he’s causing, leading me to assume he intends to dismember the country, take the southern and eastern parts that he wants, and hand the ruin over to the west for us to foot the bill.

this is my take as well.

Re: Putin may be planning to pummel Kyiv into submission

#240

Post by falcolas »

MrRiddle wrote: post #229
q1w2 wrote: post #221

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He is referring to the deal offered PRIOR to the invasion. The deal that Ukraine commit to never joining NATO and agree to recognize Crimea as Russian. In retrospect, that was better than Ukrainian cities being absolutely destroyed. The rest of us are very keyboard brave with Ukrainian lives - telling them to fight to the end. ...but you would not be so brave if you had to live through this yourself.

Exactly, how many cities have to be destroyed before they sign? And they will be destroyed if they don’t fold. There is exactly one way of ending this, only difference is how much Ukraine is willing to pay in blood and resources before they sign.

This is the language of bullies. "Do this or we'll hurt you." "You did that, so now do this, or we'll hurt you."

And then they hurt you anyways.

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