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Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory

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Re: Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory

#91

Post by inglor_cz »

mytailorisrich wrote: post #63
inglor_cz wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Crimea could turn into an independent, mostly Russian speaking, fully demilitarized country living off tourism. Possibly joining the EU later. I bet they would be much richer than today. Being a part of Russia sucks from the economic point of view. IDK if Crimean Russians are so nationalistic that they would rather live in a semi-starved, heavily sanctioned, economically isolated country.

Why can't they remain part of Russia like they historically were (well, I mean since Russia took over form the Tatars, of course) and seem to want? It's not because Russia has taken Crimea back in a rather cavalier way that they should be split again just to weaken Russia. This can only perpetuate resentment and problems.

They can, if they prefer to, but in order to achieve lasting peace in the Black Sea, Crimea should IMHO be demilitarized.

Having Russian military bases on their south flank is a major security problem for Ukraine.

Re: Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory

#92

Post by throwaway0a5e »

Aethylia wrote: post #28
decremental wrote: post #15

This is different because we like Japan but we don't like Russia. If Russia didn't want the entire world to turn on them, they shouldn't have illegally invaded Afghanistan.

Do we like Japan? They have a shameful history that they have refused to acknowledge. I view them very negatively.

Excuse me while my eyes roll a loop in their head.

Japan's only crime is speed-running the "major nation of Europe" experience.

Develop central government, industrialize, colonize, fight "real wars" with other "real nations", etc.

Europe is just as bad. They just spread it out over 400yr instead of 80yr so the history textbook gets a chapter of feel good stuff to isolate the genocidal religious wars from the hand cutting and the opium.

There's a joke about the difference in work ethics in there somewhere.

Re: Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory

#93

Post by mytailorisrich »

Giorgi wrote: post #69
mytailorisrich wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This would require military action by Moldova/Georgia/Ukraine because the territories you mention are ethnically different and do not want to be part of those countries to start with. Abkhazia fought a war in the early 90s to split from Georgia. South Ossetia also fought several wars to become independent. So both those territories might strive to become fully independent but will absolutely refuse to be re-absorbed…

This is inaccurate information, Russia fought both wars in Georgia, currently Abkhazians and Ossetians are Russian citizens (they grabbed Russian passports as soon as they become available) so they will go back to their motherland Russia, Georgia will re-absorb it's own historical territory. Looks like you are spreading Russian propaganda in bad faith.

Oh so you're saying that Georgia wants to forcibly take those territories and go full ethnic cleansing (That's how I read what you wrote, I'm not trying it on)? If so, they might indeed prefer to have the Russian army around...

Re: Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory

#94

Post by inglor_cz »

pjerem wrote: post #89
api wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> lost wars are an enormous stress test for authoritarian regimes where the ruler gets all the blame, just look at the collapse of Tsarist Russia in 1917 This just brought to mind the idea that it's remarkable that America has weathered at least one and possibly three (depending on the definition of success) lost wars in the past 50 years without severe political consequences: Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan. It wasn'…

I don’t think we can count US as an "authoritarian regime".

Even democratic states tend to reel after lost wars. Perhaps not collapse entirely, but a period of unrest is very possible.

Re: Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory

#96

Post by gambiting »

xxs wrote: post #47
inglor_cz wrote: post #35

In the case that Russia actually collapses as a state ... which is not likely, but cannot be ruled out if they lose this war badly (lost wars are an enormous stress test for authoritarian regimes where the ruler gets all the blame, just look at the collapse of Tsarist Russia in 1917) ... a lot of territory would be up to grabs. Kaliningrad could transform to a puppet state of the EU, removing a serious gap in its ter…

>Kaliningrad could transform to a puppet state of the EU, removing a serious gap in its territorial contiguity. EU is not a country and to my knowledge none of the neighbors wants to join that territory. It's quite a poor region with Russian population... Germans effectively left in the late 40s'

>>and to my knowledge none of the neighbors wants to join that territory

Well, let me expand that knowledge then - Poland would love to integrate that bit of land, because currently the fact that the only entrance to the Polish port of Elbląg is controlled by Russia is a major ballache that stops the development of the region, enough so that the Polish government has agreed to spend billions of Polish zlotys to dig a canal that will allow ships to skip going through Russian controlled waters.

https://www.google.pl/maps/@54.4002206,19.5500717,10.75z

Re: Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory

#97

Post by skhr0680 »

mytailorisrich wrote: post #59
azangru wrote: post #2

Didn't they always (well, since WW2) consider southern Kurils their territory occupied by Russia? Has anything changed in their messaging?

Well, Japan lost WWII and treaties among the victors gave the Kurils to Russia.

The Japanese government's position via Wikipedia

> Although by the terms of Article (2c) of the 1951 San Francisco treaty, Japan renounced all rights to the Kuril Islands, the treaty did not apply to the islands of Kunashiri, Etorofu, Shikotan and Habomai since they are not included in the Kuril Islands. Also, the Soviet Union did not sign the San Francisco treaty.

Re: Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory

#98

Post by WilTimSon »

mytailorisrich wrote: post #58
jcfrei wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Lots of countries are obviously positioning themselves to (re-)integrate some territory just in case. Some missing pieces: South Ossetia and Abkhazia which would probably be reintegrated into Georgia and pave the way for potential NATO or EU membership. Transnistria integration into Moldova. LDR / DPR maybe even Crimea back to Ukraine.

This would require military action by Moldova/Georgia/Ukraine because the territories you mention are ethnically different and do not want to be part of those countries to start with. Abkhazia fought a war in the early 90s to split from Georgia. South Ossetia also fought several wars to become independent. So both those territories might strive to become fully independent but will absolutely refuse to be re-absorbed…

> This would require military action by Moldova/Georgia/Ukraine because the territories you mention are ethnically different and do not want to be part of those countries to start with.

Curious that, at least in the case of Georgia and Ukraine, those territories only decided they didn't want to be part of their countries when Russian troops rolled in and made totally non-threatening offers.

Re: Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory

#99

Post by Navarr »

mytailorisrich wrote: post #63
inglor_cz wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Crimea could turn into an independent, mostly Russian speaking, fully demilitarized country living off tourism. Possibly joining the EU later. I bet they would be much richer than today. Being a part of Russia sucks from the economic point of view. IDK if Crimean Russians are so nationalistic that they would rather live in a semi-starved, heavily sanctioned, economically isolated country.

Why can't they remain part of Russia like they historically were (well, I mean since Russia took over form the Tatars, of course) and seem to want? It's not because Russia has taken Crimea back in a rather cavalier way that they should be split again just to weaken Russia. This can only perpetuate resentment and problems.

Speaking only as an American, I don't think we really know what Crimeans want. Russia isn't well-known for legitimate democratic voting, and the Crimean referendum has never been acknowledged by Western Democracies.

I would not be starkly opposed to Crimean independence, nor even Russian-integration, but in essence it looks like Russia took Crimea and then held a fake referendum to legitimize it.

But the question always goes - where do we draw lines. Should we support the concept of the Confederate States of America seceding from the United States? If California or Texas wanted to secede, should we support it? Wales? Okinawa? Quebec?

How should governments determine actual stake and determination over a specific part of land?

Re: Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory

#100

Post by skhr0680 »

tgv wrote: post #14
bertil wrote: post #7

Many people are tempted to compare the claim to the Russian argument in Dombass: it’s a much smaller claim (20k inhabitants), a consistent one since 1945. The population is notoriously isolated, too.

It was given to the Soviet Union when Japan lost in WW2, basically, so the claim has a rather different background.

It wasn't given to the Soviet Union, which is why the Soviets refused to sign the San Francisco peace treaty
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