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Putin may be planning to pummel Kyiv into submission

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Re: Putin may be planning to pummel Kyiv into submission

#91

Post by totesraunch »

hef19898 wrote: post #83
totesraunch wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

These videos aren't from early-mid 2000s middle east where westerners can't tell the difference. They're clearly Ukranian cities and very high def videos (which didn't exist in past Soviet/European wars).

One thing you should really take away from this ongoing propaganda / information war is to never blindly trust what seems to be "evidence". Especially if that evidence is confirming your own biases and preferences. Because that willingness to believe information is what makes propaganda so powerfull.

You're right, it's peaceful in Ukraine, no civilians are dying. The Russian 'special military operarion' is going off without a hitch and civilians are welcoming their saviors. My mistake.

Re: Putin may be planning to pummel Kyiv into submission

#92

Post by neuronic »

thaumasiotes wrote: post #78
neuronic wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most economic models need to stop assuming that the typical actor is rational. Putin is clearly not objectively rational, at best subjectively rational within the realms of his ideology (unite the ethnically Russian people). Add to that miscommunication within all sectors of government just to please your superiors and that's how you arrive at the, sorry, shit tier decision making surrounding this entire war. Anyone…

> Putin is clearly not objectively rational, at best subjectively rational within the realms of his ideology This is the only type of rationality. What are you imagining when you say "objectively rational"? > Most economic models need to stop assuming that the typical actor is rational. Being rational as defined by your personal ideology is what economic models postulate when they assume rationality.

> This is the only type of rationality. What are you imagining when you say "objectively rational"?

I really disagree. For starters, I would put "not tank your economy into the stone age" firmly into the objectively rational category of thinking. How can this war ever be "worth it" for Putin? Ukrainians will never accept the occupation force and RUSSIA DOESNT EVEN HAVE ONE to begin with. They cannot at all maintain an occupation in the Ukraine. Incapable.

This was a spear-head blitzkrieg operation aimed at replacing Selenskij within a week that was poorly planned and immediately failed and now they are completely and utterly screwed. Putin made this decision based off bad information fed to him - a downside when suppressing your subordinates, keeping bootlickers around and punishing differing opinions.

The objective results are going to be really difficult for Russia at best if not outright destructive. And it was all voluntary.

Re: Putin may be planning to pummel Kyiv into submission

#93

Post by Bancakes »

alephnan wrote: post #11
Aeolun wrote: post #3

This seems likely, but I have a hard time thinking of what to do about it. I’m long past the point where I’d be fine calling their bluff, but the same thing does not seem to be true for our elected leaders (probably why I’m not one of those).

> I’m long past the point where I’d be fine calling their bluff What do you personally stand to lose if you call the bluff and it’s not a bluff? As much as I’d like to hate on the politicians, this isn’t a repeatable game where the outcomes average out.

I lose my life. I win the 'mutual' in mutually assured destruction, and our side guarantees it.

Re: Putin may be planning to pummel Kyiv into submission

#94

Post by 331c8c71 »

adhesive_wombat wrote: post #67
curiousgal wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Honestly, I stopped using Reddit, the amount of Ukranian propaganda has been through the roof. People are romanticizing the war. I log in to look at memes and cat videos and instead watch kids making molotoves. I have no horse in this race, propoganda is propoganda.

I have had family abroad (not Russia) tell me that the media there is reporting that Ukrainian paramilitary forces, including released prisoners, forcibly prevented their own citizens leaving and collapsed the humanitarian corridors[1]. And the problem is, it's actually not completely outside the realms of possiblity, and I have no way to know. As far as I'm aware, the Ukrainians are fighting the good fight, but that…

> at the media there is reporting that Ukrainian paramilitary forces ... forcibly prevented their own citizens leaving and collapsed the humanitarian corridors

That's no secret, that's pretty much from official statements of Russian officials.

Al Jazeera reports what both sides are saying.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/7/russian-military-con...

Re: Putin may be planning to pummel Kyiv into submission

#95

Post by hef19898 »

ChuckNorris89 wrote: post #66
tablespoon wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This is genuinely not an attempt at flamewar but why can't civilians just leave? They are. I think the count is up to two million or something. > Russia is obviously going to win. That's not so obvious. For instance: the US failed to win against much weaker opponents than the Ukrainians. > The logical thing to do is to leave, suffer but be sure that your kids will have it better. But I reckon this isn't about logic…

>That's not so obvious. For instance: the US failed to win against much weaker opponents than the Ukrainians. Those were opponents in a tribalistic society practicing guerilla warfare hiding across deserts spreading thousands of miles. Ukraine is a developed country with infrastructure that's well documented and known by their enemy. If they take out their vital infrastructure like hospitals, water, power, schools, t…

Guerillas, and partisans, were quite successful in places like Yugoslavia (WW2), Afghanistan (against the USSR and NATO), Ireland (against the British), Belarus (WW2), Poland (WW2), the Finish used some Guerilla style tactics (WW2 against the USSR). Ukraine was less a Guerilla hot bed in WW2 (it was early on, and then again after Stalingrad). None of those places were tribal societies (exception: Afghanistan to a degree) or desert. Nor was the Elephant in the room, Vietnam (they won twice, once against France and once against the US). The only desert based guerilla campaigns in recent history I can think of right now were Algeria (in the 60s) and Arabia (against the Ottomans in WW1).

Ukraine is a huge country, cities are a great environment for insurgents. I'd be surprised if that wasn't an option Ukraine's planning. That they didn't have to resort to that kind of warfare yet is quite surprising if you ask me.

Re: Putin may be planning to pummel Kyiv into submission

#96

Post by alephnan »

Bancakes wrote: post #93
alephnan wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I’m long past the point where I’d be fine calling their bluff What do you personally stand to lose if you call the bluff and it’s not a bluff? As much as I’d like to hate on the politicians, this isn’t a repeatable game where the outcomes average out.

I lose my life. I win the 'mutual' in mutually assured destruction, and our side guarantees it.

Will you be willing to enroll in the Ukrainian or United States Army, or is this computer armchair philosophy ?

At least in this way other people who didn’t volunteer their life are spared.

Re: Putin may be planning to pummel Kyiv into submission

#97

Post by zpeti »

neuronic wrote: post #63
alephnan wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's so incredibly sad to see this playing out exactly as many predicted The narrative started out that Putin is a dog backed into a corner, therefore he is bluffing and won’t actually invade. The story was also that he has the most to lose. Maybe the premise was correct, but the conclusion hasn’t been proven valid yet.

Most economic models need to stop assuming that the typical actor is rational. Putin is clearly not objectively rational, at best subjectively rational within the realms of his ideology (unite the ethnically Russian people). Add to that miscommunication within all sectors of government just to please your superiors and that's how you arrive at the, sorry, shit tier decision making surrounding this entire war. Anyone…

Is wanting to put your name in the history books not objectively rational?

Re: Putin may be planning to pummel Kyiv into submission

#98

Post by vkou »

neuronic wrote: post #63
alephnan wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's so incredibly sad to see this playing out exactly as many predicted The narrative started out that Putin is a dog backed into a corner, therefore he is bluffing and won’t actually invade. The story was also that he has the most to lose. Maybe the premise was correct, but the conclusion hasn’t been proven valid yet.

Most economic models need to stop assuming that the typical actor is rational. Putin is clearly not objectively rational, at best subjectively rational within the realms of his ideology (unite the ethnically Russian people). Add to that miscommunication within all sectors of government just to please your superiors and that's how you arrive at the, sorry, shit tier decision making surrounding this entire war. Anyone…

I don't think his behaviour was particularly irrational, as much as he has been acting on a few pieces of intelligence that ultimately proved to have been incorrect.

1. He incorrectly assumed that he'd only be facing minor sanctions for starting a war of aggression. Given how many other countries have waged wars of aggression in the past few decades, this wasn't an insane assumption... given the information he had at the time.

2. He incorrectly assumed that Ukraine would fold in less than a week. Given how the first day of the invasion looked like the Russian army was driving westwards until there wasn't any gas in the tank, this wasn't an insane assumption... given the information he had at the time.

3. There is no 3, those were the two major contributors to the shit sandwich he's now serving to both Ukraine and Russia. All the crazy shit he says about eight-hundred year old history and nazis and so on and so forth isn't what he actually believes, it's intended for internal Russian media consumption.

So no, from the perspective of someone playing at empire-building, starting this war was only 'irrational' for him with the benefit of hind-sight.

Re: Putin may be planning to pummel Kyiv into submission

#99

Post by imnotlost »

alephnan wrote: post #13
parineum wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We could have put troops in the country before the invasion.

Isn’t that exactly the kind of the arrogance of the West pushing the boundaries as the East has argued is its red line ?

NATO membership is entirely voluntary.

As such, there haven't been any "pushing of boundaries" unless you presume Russia gets to decide what independent nations like Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania, Finland, Sweden, Ukraine, Georgia, Belarus, etc. may or may not do.

Re: Putin may be planning to pummel Kyiv into submission

#100

Post by lordnacho »

alephnan wrote: post #88
lordnacho wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes but the logic you hear in the news now is that doing something like a no fly zone would be provoking ww3 because then Russians and Americans would be fighting directly. So then if troops had been put there first it would be Putin starting it, and even he might not be crazy enough to do that. By wavering the west has gotten into a position where Ukraine is being destroyed.

> By wavering the west has gotten into a position where Ukraine is being destroyed. And this I agree. So now maybe the United States will stop wavering on Taiwan.

Yes, the same logic should apply. Whoever puts troops there first stops the other side from doing it, under threat from ww3 and nuclear war.
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