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Ask HN: What do Russians on HN think about this war?

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Re: Ask HN: What do Russians on HN think about this war?

#11
post #8

Related question: does anyone have a source for accurate polling in Russia? I'd like to understand the _true_ level of support for the invasion of Ukraine. There is a lot of propaganda flying out on both sides. I think the West/NATO's next steps should carefully consider the true level of support for these actions within Russia. If there is already a modest level of support (e.g. > 25%) then actions such as sanctions…

> does anyone have a source for accurate polling in Russia? I'd like to understand the _true_ level of support for the invasion of Ukraine.

...when it bears up to 15 years in jail for treason?

Given how the Russian government operates - just look for the amount of arrests [0]

[0] https://ovd.news/news/2022/03/06/spiski-zaderzhannyh-v-svyaz...

Re: Ask HN: What do Russians on HN think about this war?

#13
post #8

Related question: does anyone have a source for accurate polling in Russia? I'd like to understand the _true_ level of support for the invasion of Ukraine. There is a lot of propaganda flying out on both sides. I think the West/NATO's next steps should carefully consider the true level of support for these actions within Russia. If there is already a modest level of support (e.g. > 25%) then actions such as sanctions…

https://meduza.io/feature/2022/03/05/esli-verit-gosudarstven...

tldr: huge support among older population

This is according to two pro-government pollsters, but they also link to one independent poll that seem to confirm the findings so far. Meduza is probably largest remaining opposition russian media.

Re: Ask HN: What do Russians on HN think about this war?

#14
post #8

Related question: does anyone have a source for accurate polling in Russia? I'd like to understand the _true_ level of support for the invasion of Ukraine. There is a lot of propaganda flying out on both sides. I think the West/NATO's next steps should carefully consider the true level of support for these actions within Russia. If there is already a modest level of support (e.g. > 25%) then actions such as sanctions…

Here is the dynamics between February 24 and March 3 - https://twitter.com/Kira_Yarmysh/status/1500430882615836674

I tried to translate using OCR, and the first chart's data points are answers to the question to what is the role of Russia in the conflict: "Aggressor", "Freedom", "Peacekeeping", "Don't know".

Note, that it's based on an online poll (so not including TV-watchers-only people), but AFAIK they made sure that the people who are being polled are in different age and demographic groups.

Re: Ask HN: What do Russians on HN think about this war?

#16
post #9

I am Ukrainian, living in US, but have plenty of Russian friends and (still) some connections with people living in Russia. My strong believe is that there is pretty high support of Putin in Russia, especially around mainstream population, I'd estimate at least 40-50%. This is related to 20+ years of propaganda and phantom pains of USSR collapse. West people should not be delusional. Of course it is also not black an…

Do you happpen to have heard/know how groups like this are viewed?

https://mobile.twitter.com/guychazan/status/1500543700295987...

https://mobile.twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/15004953095957...

Re: Ask HN: What do Russians on HN think about this war?

#17
post #9

I am Ukrainian, living in US, but have plenty of Russian friends and (still) some connections with people living in Russia. My strong believe is that there is pretty high support of Putin in Russia, especially around mainstream population, I'd estimate at least 40-50%. This is related to 20+ years of propaganda and phantom pains of USSR collapse. West people should not be delusional. Of course it is also not black an…

> Finally, I hope you realize that by asking here you will get a _very_ distorted view.

This cannot be overstated. It's hard to know what and who to believe anymore.

Re: Ask HN: What do Russians on HN think about this war?

#18
post #13
post #8

Related question: does anyone have a source for accurate polling in Russia? I'd like to understand the _true_ level of support for the invasion of Ukraine. There is a lot of propaganda flying out on both sides. I think the West/NATO's next steps should carefully consider the true level of support for these actions within Russia. If there is already a modest level of support (e.g. > 25%) then actions such as sanctions…

https://meduza.io/feature/2022/03/05/esli-verit-gosudarstven... tldr: huge support among older population This is according to two pro-government pollsters, but they also link to one independent poll that seem to confirm the findings so far. Meduza is probably largest remaining opposition russian media.

Meduza is generally a credible source, and this article has an important nuance - there is huge support among older population _who watched government TV daily_. That is, interested in & highly aligned with the Kremlin's propaganda.

The same article say it's a ~50/50 split among people who are young, educated, or live in large cities.

Re: Ask HN: What do Russians on HN think about this war?

#19
post #4
post #3

I have friends in Russia but if I relate their thoughts I will be downvoted and flagged to oblivion. There's no room for "the other view" on HN. Look at any old thread about PRC and see how it goes. When it smells a little of politics HN quickly devolve and moderation is needed.

Post it as a throwaway. I'm very interested in hearing the other side. After all, a coin has three sides...

Same, it’s obvious the West has a narrative that is being pushed.

Re: Ask HN: What do Russians on HN think about this war?

#20
Hello! Russian SW developer from Moscow is here.

First, it's been a shock for all the society. No one would imagine in a worst dream that this attack would happen. Even when Putin made his speech about acceptance of LNR/DNR we were like "phew, another shitty fake politics, nothing really changes".

But then the war started. And no one expected that! I think, even military or economic ministers didn't expect that. People are in the shock.

First, it's been incredibly painful to watch our beloved friends in Ukraine are suffering, fleeing the country and turning to be our enemies forever. Almost every Russian have some relative or friend in Ukraine, and now these bonds are broken forever. It's very very painful! The fact that the source of suffering is your country doubles the weight.

Second, there is an information attack "Every Russian is to shame", which targets even those who fleed the country seeking the asylum from Putin. It feels very dehumanizing and racist actually. When I opened facebook there was some ads with corpses of Russian soldiers, and FB moderation was okay with it. Now Facebook is blocked(which is actually good thing, it doesn't help, only melt people's minds).

Most people in Russia are very poor, and don't read facebook/watch youtube. They see the beautiful TV picture of brave Russian forces fighting Ukrainian nazis, without resistance from ordinary people. So this facebook war is only doing harm to educated class which doesn't have political power anyway. The news about oligarchs who lost their yachts can only give Putin additional support.

Third, of course, it's very scary. We may die from nuclear war. We can end up in some North Korea/Iran scenario and never see Europe again. Businesses are falling, Europe connections are cut one by one. Russian people are used to some bad times, but I've never seen events unfolding so fast and so tragic and unpredictable.

There is a lot of propaganda from both of sides, lot of fakes, and infowar is melting our brains. Some people are panicking and try to move to Georgia/Armenia. Some are just preparing for bad days trying to hold on and help their families. Some people are happy with their TV picture. Most of people are just trying to hold as much as they can - work, prepare for growing season, save their businesses. We don't have illusions that life will just go on after the war is over.

The future is very unclear, but everyone I know just want this war to be over as soon as possible and with as low casualties as still possible and then work hard to deal with consequences.

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