Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

noteplan.co

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

221–230 of 275 posts

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#221

Post by KaiserPro »

sillysaurusx wrote: post #177
KaiserPro wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It depends what you define as win. Its true that russia will find it _very_ difficult to sustain this level of effort for any level of time. Its logistic capacity has been pushed way beyond efficiency. but with that in mind, whos going to push putin out of ukraine? yes the people can pick off soldiers for the next few years, but thats not peace. It is currently within Putin's grasp to freeze the conflict as it is now…

Analysis! Fun. Let's analyze 'em: > 1) stage a dirty bomb, blame it on ukraine, order a general mobilisation. Equivalent to #5. > 2) freeze the conflict now, hold on to the "gains" This would be the smartest move. But it would also signal that Russia admits defeat, which may work against Putin. After all, his goal is to hold on to power. > 3) Assainate Zelenskyy Putin is certainly trying. It may be media exaggeration…

Thanks for this, I certainly enjoyed your analysis.

The only quibble I have is that option 1 would allow Russia's allies cover to provide help (assuming they they choose to) even if that fails, it would provide a chance to get the russian population on side.

which is slightly different to 5

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#222

Post by quantum_mcts »

Luc wrote: post #192
quantum_mcts wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, literally "meteorite" in original text. It is used as an example of a completely implausible event.

I don't think so, nobody's (yet) "attacking prisons with meteorites". "And later out of nowhere they really do drop a meteor and wait for everything to be according to your analysis" But perhaps it's a metaphor rather than a mis-translation.

Yes, it is a metaphor. I know that because I speak Russian and read the original. Indeed, that's a weird metaphor even for a Russian ear.

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#223

Post by itsailor »

forum_ghost wrote: post #100
itsailor wrote: post #36

The more I read foreign media, the more I am convinced of how one-sided they assess the situation.

what is the domestic media that you read which is that balanced? Absolutely everything on this seems to be extremely biased, to the point, I simply assume it all to be entirely fake until proven otherwise.

I agree with you. Domestic media also seems to be extremely biased. I hope this whole conflict comes to an end and we learn at least a little bit of the truth.

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#224

Post by itsailor »

jacquesm wrote: post #64
itsailor wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are no references to verified facts in the note. This is just a private opinion. If one person came up with something, it does not mean that everyone thinks so.

You are saying it is fake, so now the onus is on you to prove that it is fake. You didn't say 'it's an opinion' you said 'All information in this note is fake.' That is a statement of fact, no longer an opinion, so now, just like you claim the article should have done you have to back up your claim with facts. And if not then you should retract your claim.

Okey, your right here. My comment is just my opinion. For my opinion all information in the note seems to be fake.

I did not use the correct wording, sorry, English is not my native language, so I may express some thoughts not quite the way you expect. I'll be more careful with this, thanks for your comment.

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#225

Post by throwawayForMe2 »

Merad wrote: post #197
cm2187 wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Let's not forget the US eye in the sky. I wonder if the US has now the ability to track the movement of every single tank, anti-air defense, troop carrier, across a whole country. It seems plausible to me.

I can't remember details but I'm positive I've read about such a capability being developed in the 70s or 80s. I think it was an airborne radar system similar to AWACS except looking at the ground, combined with computer systems that would analyze the data to identify troop movements. With the military resources available today (drones, satellites, ...) and the massive increases in computing power it wouldn't surpris…

JSTARS

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northrop_Grumman_E-8_Joint_STA...

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#226

Post by rich_sasha »

rosndo wrote: post #212
rich_sasha wrote: post #178

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So maybe it’s genuine. Or the admin is bored. Or the admin got this sent randomly from someone. Maybe an FSB operative, or maybe a convincing troll, or Russian or Ukrainian or frankly any intelligence service. It’s completely unknowable. Any heuristics for determining authenticity go out the window, because they would be used by a faker too. Hell, even concluding it’s a fake is dangerous, because what if that’s the i…

This is the case with most journalism, no? Here we have a well respected journalist with a solid track record claiming that they trust their source. Doesn’t mean it’s necessarily true, but certainly lends credibility.

It is similar.

I wouldn’t take at face value a journalist saying “this is what an FSB operative says, trust me”. Leaks from “senior anonymous official” are dozen a penny. Journalists typically indicate how they verified the provenance of leaks they publish, and hopefully keep the unverifiable stuff off their pages.

As for the guy’s track record... this sounds like a niche source. Some fairly small slither of the population can indeed infer more by knowing this guy well, for everyone else is “trust me he’s good”. Certainly not informative to me.

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#227

Post by MrMan »

sillysaurusx wrote: post #119

It was a tense week, but Russia has lost the war. They can drag it out, but ultimately victory will go to Ukraine. The reasons for this are subtle but obvious. The Russian military machine can't operate outside of Russia. They have no way of transporting fuel, ammunition, food, and other supplies to the front lies. This means that their effective operational capabilities are limited to five days. It's been a hobby of…

victory is impossible for Ukraine, which will probably lose a lot of territory, lives, infrastructure, economic development, out-migration.

but Russia cant win either

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#228

Post by MrMan »

sillysaurusx wrote: post #177
KaiserPro wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It depends what you define as win. Its true that russia will find it _very_ difficult to sustain this level of effort for any level of time. Its logistic capacity has been pushed way beyond efficiency. but with that in mind, whos going to push putin out of ukraine? yes the people can pick off soldiers for the next few years, but thats not peace. It is currently within Putin's grasp to freeze the conflict as it is now…

Analysis! Fun. Let's analyze 'em: > 1) stage a dirty bomb, blame it on ukraine, order a general mobilisation. Equivalent to #5. > 2) freeze the conflict now, hold on to the "gains" This would be the smartest move. But it would also signal that Russia admits defeat, which may work against Putin. After all, his goal is to hold on to power. > 3) Assainate Zelenskyy Putin is certainly trying. It may be media exaggeration…

Russia should retreat to the breakaway provinces and try to hold those and to ethnic cleansing to solidify demographics in their favor. kill zelensky just out of spite though it doesn't affect outcome much. try to hang onto the port they captured and the nuke plant maybe.

by should I dont according to moral laws but just to get something militarily out of the whole evil mess.

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#229

Post by MrMan »

cm2187 wrote: post #111

Even if it turns out not be genuine, he still makes some very good points. The last part about nothing indicating Putin is suicidal in particular.

I agree - you dont have to accept this as legitimate to engage in a discussion of the points raised.

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#230

Post by MrMan »

jonathanstrange wrote: post #132

This is virtually guaranteed to be a deliberate disiformation piece written by an actual FSB officer for that purpose. Maybe it's only intended for splitting the Western alliance, but it could also be used for a false flag attack to further justify Russia's aggression. Or, slightly less nefarious, it could be intended to "explain" if something went wrong with the occupation of a nuclear power plant. In a war like tha…

HN is indeed a place for curiously engaging in surveillance capitalism while ignoring or minimizing "skeptically" the most important issues confronting the world.

HN was great in 2008 to remind us that developments in software development meant that starting a web app was now cheap enough to actually disrupt old businesses. but that was a long time ago.

Post reply on HN