Russians are trying to flee – data from Google Trends • Hacker News Board

Re: Russians are trying to flee – data from Google Trends

#891

Post by koonsolo » Sun, Mar 06, 2022, 3:28 PM UTC

CapricornNoble wrote: post #881

koonsolo wrote: post #332

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I've been really critical of the moves we've made in Europe for the past 10-15 years So Germany buying gas from Russia, then trying to buy even more gas and then for a large part depending on it. Do you consider that a good or a bad move?

2000-2010? Good move. Would have helped with integration of Russia into Europe. Post 2010 (really post 2007-2008, but it might have taken a few years to react): bad move. This is roughly when the relationship between the US-led NATO and Russia really soured. It should have been obvious what kind of long game the US was playing, given the switch from a Republican President (Bush) to a Democrat one (Obama). Yet the har…

But to be honest I don't see how US could have such a big influence on EU-Russia relationship. The conflict is all due to having a dictator in one part of that equation. And then for EU to have good relationships with US, the toughest power in NATO, seems like a good idea.

Sorry but Russia could have played this way better. It's clear that they can't play nice with anyone. Would have been very good for EU and Russia if they were playing nice.

Now it's a bit of divide an conquer for US. Let's face it, Putin screwed both EU and Russia. What an idiot. It's very strange to blame CIA or Republicans. Especially since he's so anti-US, but he's not damaging US in any way.

Re: Russians are trying to flee – data from Google Trends

#892

Post by awb » Sun, Mar 06, 2022, 3:58 PM UTC

axiosgunnar wrote: post #755

blueyes wrote: post #486

I've been told by people inside that Russian citizens are trying desperately to leave the country for three main reasons: 1) They do not want to be conscripted to fight in Putin's war. 2) The Western sanctions are impacting Russia's economy at every level. Western companies are cutting them off from goods and services they rely on. Those who experienced life behind the Iron Curtain do not want to live behind it again…

> The iPhone curtain If one could invest in slogans that will soon be in every history book, I would go all in on this one :-)

Domain names and social media handles maybe?

Re: Russians are trying to flee – data from Google Trends

#893

Post by awb » Sun, Mar 06, 2022, 4:08 PM UTC

awb wrote: post #763

bitcharmer wrote: post #194

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On the contrary. Leaving results in cementing the status quo because the population that remains are blind Putin followers.

There’s always infighting though. A dictator always has to have some kind of internal enemy to blame. If the anti-war population leaves, they’ll go after anyone who’s not actively supporting war. Until you reach full, North Korea-style indoctrination, at which point the brain drain is massive.

They’re going after neutrals now:

https://mobile.twitter.com/franakviacorka/status/15004118457...

Re: Russians are trying to flee – data from Google Trends

#894

Post by lazide » Sun, Mar 06, 2022, 4:11 PM UTC

andrey123 wrote: post #316

therusskiy wrote: post #6

I managed to escape the country yesterday, had to flight to Egypt of all places, because ALL (even business) tickets were sold out. The recent news is that starting March 6 all international flights are suspended, the trap has closed. The disheartening thing is that even if you never supported Putin, other countries treat you as enemy. I am at Georgia now and banks refuse to open bank accounts to Russians, and I need…

[Disclaimer: Russian] According to my estimations, probably at least 95% of people who are "against the war" do not go out to participate in protests. My estimations are based on talking to my colleagues (large IT company). Yes, starting from now, protesting becomes more risky (you may go to jail for years if you get caught second time). But just a week ago, it was mostly harmless (yes, some people get arrested for f…

It’s the whole ‘the only thing necessary for evil to triumph is for good men do nothing’, combined with the very real reality that being the first (or part of it when it isn’t enough) to do something usually results in predictable catastrophic terrible consequences for whoever tries to do something.

And that successful evil uses that to ‘boil the frog’ and constantly shift the normal bit by bit in the direction they want, never doing it enough they get a critical mass of resistance, and slowly pruning out all the good people (with terrible consequences for those folks), and then being able to accelerate as they go due to lower and lower portions of folks willing and able to speak out.

It’s terrifying to watch, even more terrifying to know what it can mean unfortunately.

Because we recognize ‘evil’ as being evil and bad because of the horrible and wide reaching consequences of it for everyone in the longer term.

Hopefully Putin made too big a step here (overconfidence maybe, or his hand was forced by something else), we all have recent even painful experience to react strongly enough, and the backlash will be sufficient to actually result in critical change and not a ratcheting up of the ‘new normal’.

Re: Russians are trying to flee – data from Google Trends

#895

Post by skyde » Sun, Mar 06, 2022, 4:15 PM UTC

swat535 wrote: post #732

moonchrome wrote: post #505

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>But it’s important to note that we haven’t chosen this government, we haven’t chosen this country we live in. From my perspective this is the only meaningful change you can make. If my government ever starts getting in my way too much I'll find another one. Voting with my feet literally. We have this luxury as in-demand professionals. Kind of hard for me to empathize with Russian developers when they had decades to…

As someone who lived under the Islamic Republic of Iran for half his life, what ends up happening with the "voting with your feet" strategy is that the country ends up with a "brain drain". This worsens the situation because the only people remaining are the ones who either had no means of escaping or have been indoctrinated by the government; thus making the change from "within" even more difficult. That being said,…

you said « Middle Eastern living in the west, the hostility I experienced were enormous «

Could you explain? I know people in usa are afraid of religious extremists. but I always assumed if you are comings from Iran, Liban, moroco … and speaking good english they will be friendly to you.

That is because majority of american don’t even know where on a map Iran is :-)

Re: Russians are trying to flee – data from Google Trends

#896

Post by lazide » Sun, Mar 06, 2022, 4:20 PM UTC

snek_case wrote: post #651

enaaem wrote: post #532

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can read the book: Blueprint for Revolution: How to Use Rice Pudding, Lego Men, and Other Nonviolent Techniques to Galvanize Communities, Overthrow Dictators, or Simply Change the World It proposes many interesting strategies and ideas on how to protest in dictatorships. Be subtle, use humor and focus your message on the most common people. Don't call for democracy, free speech or anything like that. You will be…

I like the peaceful approach, but the scary thing here is that the dictator in power can be a straight up psychopath with no empathy. Putin doesn't seem to have any qualms with getting his perceived enemies murdered... So even to lead a peaceful movement like that, the identity of the leaders has to somehow remain a secret?

He didn’t start that way (well, I mean he was, but it wasn’t obvious!), he’s just made it so everyone is actually ok (and near as I can tell, he has wide domestic support even very recently) with him obviously being that way.

Part of this is the psychology of the abused spouse frankly - yeah he’s scary and terrible, but he’s on ‘my side’

Re: Russians are trying to flee – data from Google Trends

#897

Post by lowkey » Sun, Mar 06, 2022, 4:41 PM UTC

therusskiy wrote: post #886

lowkey wrote: post #884

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How are the Russian oligarchs robbing Russian citizens of the wealth they otherwise could have? I didn’t read that from OP’s post and I don’t understand what exactly you are claiming here. Do Russian oligarchs steal from the bank accounts of ordinary Russians or is there another mechanism of theft?

taxes that Russians pay are largely stolen by the government and given to oligarchs, who are friends of Putin. For example Rotenbergs want to build a new road, they say it's going to cost them 10x times the market cost, but they are going to win this government contract anyway because they had the same judo coach as Putin. Any time West puts sanctions on oligarchs Putin makes a law so they can pay less taxes, meaning…

That is shocking until you realize that the same thing happens in the west all the time - institutional corruption that benefits the elite.

For example the city of Montreal is notorious for similar corruption in their road construction industry. Other cities are known to operate with similar collusion, though it isn’t as widely reported.

If Nancy Pelosi was Russian we would certainly call her an Oligarch as it is widely known she has a net worth of $200 million+ on a salary of a few hundred thousand per year.

She gained her enormous wealth by feeding insider information, which she gained from her privileged position, to her husband, so he could insider trade and front-run the American people stealing from their 401ks and other investment accounts.

Insider trading is only a crime for regular Americans, not congress or senators. It is perfectly legal for them to insider trade all day long. Guess who wrote those laws?

Also, Pelosi isn’t the only American politician who abuses their power by insider trading - only the most successful.

Re: Russians are trying to flee – data from Google Trends

#898

Post by imtringued » Sun, Mar 06, 2022, 5:10 PM UTC

mantas wrote: post #292

lowkey wrote: post #255

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But at what cost? I am pretty sure that everyday Russians do know that something is going on but I have trouble justifying broad sanctions against the poor and middle-class citizens of Russia, Iran or Venezuela - especially since many of them oppose their authoritarian leaders. After all their real crime is simply losing the birth lottery by being born in an authoritarian regime.

According to polls, even run by West outlets, Russians do support Putin in big numbers.

Fox news openly supports Putin... Recently they blamed Greta Thunberg for the Ukrainian war...

Re: Russians are trying to flee – data from Google Trends

#899

Post by lowkey » Sun, Mar 06, 2022, 5:17 PM UTC

Const-me wrote: post #834

lowkey wrote: post #784

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But my point is why start with broad sanctions applied to every Russian citizen instead of putting an immediate end to us directly subsidizing Putin’s was machine? Clearly the latter is more focused on the Russian government, ends a direct subsidy of our money paying for this war, and has much less direct impact on poor and struggling everyday Russians?

Putin can write a new law which says all personal banks accounts are now nationalized. He can also inflate the currency by orders of magnitude, and make it a crime to own USD/EUR cache (it was a crime in USSR). And that's why the broad sanctions. Russian government can always milk population for money, as long as the population has the money. They did it quite a few times in the 20-th century, e.g. rouble was denomin…

It seems you are speculating that Putin’s response to Oil & Gas sanctions would be to nationalize all bank accounts and therefore broad sanctions are the only measure that could work.

Let’s say that were true. Why then should the west not apply broad sanctions AND include sanctions on Oil & Gas exports as well?

It seems to me that this policy would shut down Putin’s war machine faster than either measure alone.

I suspect the real reason the west chose to exclude oil & gas from other sanctions is the same reason the sanctions include a carve-out for selling Italian luxury goods to Russian elites.

Namely that the west is equally willing to impose pain on the Russian people as it is on Russia’s elites but they are unwilling to take more effective action since it would be politically risky and may impede their chances of re-election - even though it would effectively end the war in Ukraine immediately.

Re: Russians are trying to flee – data from Google Trends

#900

Post by samstave » Sun, Mar 06, 2022, 5:21 PM UTC

akrymski wrote: post #253

samstave wrote: post #197

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It would be great if Oligarchs around the world were uncomfortable. This should be and opportunity to catalogue just exactly who the oligarchs are and what are their assets and how are they affected.

Oligarchs don't run the country. They have zero control. It's like saying let's sanction Elon Musk for Iraq. The country is run by the military. Protesters are jailed for 3-5 years.

Putin has a direct tie to all ologarch money - they need to give him his cut for "protection" (from him) so as to not get poloniumed.

So any hit to a Russian Oligarch can eventually lead to a personal hit to Putin.

However, with all the resources of an entire nation under his singular pudgy fist, im sure he has plenty of shell-assets all across the west.

Also, ne thing we are not talking about is how the Russian mafia is profitting.

There is a huge Russo-Israeli mafia (speocifically in NYC (Kutchner fam)) and they apparently own a ton of real estate in NYC. This is who co-opted 1980s Dnald Trump...

If you arent familiar with this part of history, its been well hidden - but the Russo-Israeli Mafia in NYC is powerful. Follow the money and all that...

The human cost of all of this is going to result in a shitstorm of suffering on the part of young russian women as human trafficking is going to spike in the next ~18 months.