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Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

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Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#191

Verified by two anonymous sources, according to a “Bellingcat exec director”, who in turn has been verified by Twitter (which amounts to what, I do not know — verified their name? Their job? That they are competent at their job?) A little tenuous, but maybe this Bellingcat employee is super famous and renowned? It would be interesting if people here can come up with a better chain of verification. Until then, it’s ce…

> Bellingcat exec director If it's true then that should give it more credibility, as most probably Bellingcat is a CIA-cover organisation itself, so I suppose they do know their direct field adversaries.

I am not going to comment on your assessment of Bellingcat, but let's assume you your assessment is true;

I could just as easily argue that it gives it less credibility, as the CIA isn't known for "truthfulness" and has fabricated evidence in the past.

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#192
post #31

'Meteorites' is a mis-translation for artillery or missiles I assume.

No, literally "meteorite" in original text. It is used as an example of a completely implausible event.

I don't think so, nobody's (yet) "attacking prisons with meteorites".

"And later out of nowhere they really do drop a meteor and wait for everything to be according to your analysis"

But perhaps it's a metaphor rather than a mis-translation.

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#193
This reminded me of a quote by Kissinger: "What political leaders decide, intelligence services tend to justify. Popular literature and films often depict the opposite – policymakers as the helpless tools of intelligence experts. In the real world, intelligence assessments more often follow than guide policy decisions."

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#194
post #154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If we are going technical, then I'd say he revealed some "secret facts". I was interested to read details on inner working of FSB as a system: I'm a programmer, I look at systems made of humans as I look at software systems, I feel elated when I manage to localize a bug. Asking analyst to perform an analysis of highly unlikely scenario and punishing them for unflattering reports is a failure mode. All this story expl…

If you can make a testable prediction, lets try it. I myself try to think in terms of scientific method (although this specific text does not seem useful to me in this regard).

I'm an amateur, so I rarely push myself to a point of making real predictions. Mostly I think in hindsight: I just observe what happens, and see how it aligns with different hypotheses. It is not rigorous enough for a modern scientific method, but it works good enough to me.

To be more rigorous means not just making a single prediction, but making a lot of predictions, drawing distribution of probabilities over them, and it would need some kind of informational system to fix it because it would be a lot of predictions, too many for my memory.

My way is easier. The most threatening to a validity is a hindsight bias: it is really hard to overcome it, even when you know about it. There are other threats to a validity, but I think not it is a right place and time to dive into this topic.

> this specific text does not seem useful to me in this regard

My guess it is because you didn't interested in a management and inner workings of organizations including long-term social processes taking place in organizations, and suchlike. I do not try to reproach you on this, to tell you that you should be interested -- no. I'm just trying to explain the difference.

Science can see facts because of theories. Some people say, that science grows from objective facts, but it is not so simple. Science can see facts because it have a theory. Theory says what is a fact, and what is an unimportant noise. A precession of an orbit of Mercury was deemed in XIX century as an important fact, because classical mechanics and Newton gravity told so. When you have no theory, then the precession would be at best an unremarkable curiosity, at worst it would go unnoticed.

I have some ideas of how organizations work. I wouldn't call it a theory, because it is not, it is unsystematic and mostly intuitive, but I use it as a theory nevertheless. And it allows me to see facts in places where people who have no theory at all see a random noise.

So my guess is: you see nothing useful in this text, because your understanding of an organization is not nuanced enough. (Once more: it is not a reproach, I do not think that everyone must be interested in what is interesting to me.)

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#195
post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As mentioned a lot of places, Ukraine psy ops aren't as long. Longer = more chances for mistakes. This has been vouched for by multiple people with contacts in the FSB who all say this is most likely genuine. One of the people to vouch for it is a Bellingcat employee. It also mentioned a false flag op to make Ukraine look like it's been developing nuclear weapons. News just broke of that today from Russian media, ent…

when was the last time bellingcat published anything that was not in favour of the western spin? Perhaps the houthi drone strike, but even then you could view it as downplaying houthi's capabilities. The claimed "fact" that bellingcat somehow has FSB contacts that are willing to verify material seems like even bigger stretch.

Yes, they publish very little that would upset their backers, but the nice thing about them is that they tend to share evidence. When there is not much public evidence (like in this case) they are the first to say so.

Grozev was a traditional investigative journalist before he worked for Bellingcat. They have also worked with The Insider and many other traditional investigative journalism outfits in the east. It is not at all implausible that they should be able to contact two FSB people for feedback (especially when one of them is retired).

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#196
post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's interesting that otherwise smart people here believe that it must be true because two anonymous and unverified sources also say it's true. And this is purportedly intelligence information coming from the FSB! I mean, military intelligence, what could go wrong with trusting sensitive intelligence of an ongoing war that someone posted on Twitter or Facebook?

Has bellingcat made any big mistakes? They're kind of a big name in OSI

I think the biggest issue I know off is their response to the OPCW leaks [1], where they argued that they agree the leaks are authentic but they suddenly have proof that no one else had access to to change the narrative.

> A draft version of a letter seen by Bellingcat and not publicly released by either ‘Alex’, Wikileaks or any of the journalists who have covered the so-called scandal, proves that a chemical attack did occur.

This seems super suspicious and is a deus ex machina that undermines all material inconvenient to the US. I don't find the "screenshot" very convincing, especially with the source being the director general of the organisation in question.

[1] https://wikileaks.org/opcw-douma/

[2] https://web.archive.org/web/20201026212840/https://www.belli...

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#197
post #114

Is there any proof that Chechens soldiers have suffered heavy losses? There were rumors that Ukrainian army bombarded them after the Chechens themselves leaked their positions by posting videos on tiktok/instagram/telegram. The Kadyrov part in this text seems to be built on these rumors. edit: the part i am referring to: Kadyrov's lost his mind. Almost started another conflict with us. It's possible that the Ukrainia…

Let's not forget the US eye in the sky. I wonder if the US has now the ability to track the movement of every single tank, anti-air defense, troop carrier, across a whole country. It seems plausible to me.

I can't remember details but I'm positive I've read about such a capability being developed in the 70s or 80s. I think it was an airborne radar system similar to AWACS except looking at the ground, combined with computer systems that would analyze the data to identify troop movements. With the military resources available today (drones, satellites, ...) and the massive increases in computing power it wouldn't surprise me if they track troop movements in near real-time.

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#198

It was a tense week, but Russia has lost the war. They can drag it out, but ultimately victory will go to Ukraine. The reasons for this are subtle but obvious. The Russian military machine can't operate outside of Russia. They have no way of transporting fuel, ammunition, food, and other supplies to the front lies. This means that their effective operational capabilities are limited to five days. It's been a hobby of…

What I don't understand, though: surely they can not be so incompetent as to having forgotten that they need fuel? If all success hinged on the airport, then there should have been some plan B in case of losing the airport?

It's not necessarily anyone forgot they need fuel. It's more likely every readiness report filed in the past several years has said "everything is awesome". The reality being that nothing is awesome and actual readiness is a small fraction of what the paperwork says.

So the general staff assume everything is awesome and they've got plenty of supplies and logistical ability. Now the disparity between the state of their forces on paper and reality become known. Even if the military planners assumed reported status was exaggerated by some amount, the reality is likely worse than that assumption.

Keep in mind the Russians have been building their forces up on Ukraine's borders for months now, in winter. Even if everything was great that's a lot of food and fuel needed just for soldiers to sit around and more to actually conduct exercises. Then after months of burning through stocks of food and fuel they go on the offensive which takes even more food and fuel.

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#199

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is perhaps history's most justified war. (In that it has so many contradictory justifications) 1. Ukraine is run by the first Jewish Nazi president. So obviously they needed to be denazified 2. Russia does not want a NATO country on it's borders. That is why it invaded a country with four NATO borders 3. Ukraine has WMDs! 4. Ukraine is actually just a part of Russia, and the Soviet Union just messed up and drew a…

> Russia does not want a NATO country on it's borders. That is why it invaded a country with four NATO borders Not commenting on the other points but I think the general idea was to create a border state between Russia proper and said NATO countries, maybe out of the whole Ukraine with a Russian puppet as president, or out of several Ukrainian statelets. If it matters I do live in one of those NATO countries borderin…

I also thought the Ukraine as a neutral independent buffer state would be best for everyone. The problem is that Russia won’t allow Ukraine to be independent. It has to be a puppet state at least. There is a deleted Russian state news article describing their ambitions. This article was meant to be published after Russian victory in two days, but things obviously didn’t go as plannend.

https://web.archive.org/web/20220226224717/https://ria.ru/20...

Russias hyper aggressive policy against Ukraine has bitten them in the ass. I believe a softer approach would have been better. Focus on strengthening economic and cultural ties. Have Ukraine to be Russia sympathetic country instead of a Russian controlled one.

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