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Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

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Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#81

Post by CodeArtisan »

Is there any proof that Chechens soldiers have suffered heavy losses? There were rumors that Ukrainian army bombarded them after the Chechens themselves leaked their positions by posting videos on tiktok/instagram/telegram. The Kadyrov part in this text seems to be built on these rumors.

edit: the part i am referring to:

Kadyrov's lost his mind. Almost started another conflict with us. It's possible that the Ukrainians spread misinformation that we gave away the locations of Kadyrov's forces in the first few days. They got pounded while marching in the most terrifying ways, they hadn't even started fighting and they already got a certain place torn apart. Then it begins, "the FSB leaked info to the Ukrainians!". I don't possess such information, and say that it's 1% to 2% likely that this is true (I don't want to completely eliminate the chance).

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#82

Post by arepublicadoceu »

onemanstartup wrote: post #49

3 days to Blitzkrieg? - Fake.

You obviously never worked in a team where your boss wanted something impossible and everyone was afraid of loosing their jobs or whoever was not afraid already left/was let go.

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#83

Post by konart »

trhway wrote: post #47
belter wrote: post #41

Too well written, too human, too considerate to be a FSB Whistleblower. At least a real agent not just a regular business analyst. So strong indications of a fake. The analysis of world hunger is not supported by this current analysis, even if Russian and Ukraine are leading grain producers. The analysis will be updated as the conflict drags on. "FAO Cereal Supply and Demand Brief" https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituat…

Putin is green screened into that video. His hand in particular cuts the microphone magician style.

The hand is just closer to the camera.

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#84

Post by 3np »

trhway wrote: post #47
belter wrote: post #41

Too well written, too human, too considerate to be a FSB Whistleblower. At least a real agent not just a regular business analyst. So strong indications of a fake. The analysis of world hunger is not supported by this current analysis, even if Russian and Ukraine are leading grain producers. The analysis will be updated as the conflict drags on. "FAO Cereal Supply and Demand Brief" https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituat…

Putin is green screened into that video. His hand in particular cuts the microphone magician style.

Which video?

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#85

Post by tankenmate »

throwmeariver1 wrote: post #76
tankenmate wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Politics ought to be adjusted not to human reasonings but to human nature, of which reason is but a part and by no means the greatest part. -- Edmund Burke To make a somewhat contra-positive corollary; If you want to remove politics you need to remove humans. -- Me HN wouldn't be much without humans.

There are a lot of communities that are functioning way better after they implemented a strict no politics policy. It's a strawman argument. Especially considering the populous of hackernews of which 90% don't believe that they can be manipulated by advertising because they are too intelligent. It's gonna be a shitshow.

As soon as you have more than two people you have politics, regardless of whether it is small "p" politics or big "P" politics. Politics is a function of human communities, there is a 100% correlation.

I suspect what you were looking for is not "no politics" but "be conservative in what you say and liberal in what you hear", i.e. think more of the group than yourself. Or for those who can't read between the lines; "don't be selfish".

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#86

Post by dragonwriter »

throwaway2048 wrote: post #48
junon wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As mentioned a lot of places, Ukraine psy ops aren't as long. Longer = more chances for mistakes. This has been vouched for by multiple people with contacts in the FSB who all say this is most likely genuine. One of the people to vouch for it is a Bellingcat employee. It also mentioned a false flag op to make Ukraine look like it's been developing nuclear weapons. News just broke of that today from Russian media, ent…

Russia has been stating ukraine was trying to develop nuclear weapons for a week now.

Longer than that:

This article from almost two weeks ago, noted that while it was at that time new for the claim to be used associated with urgent action, it had been made several times before.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/23/us/politics/putin-ukraine...

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#87

Post by codeflo »

Ygg2 wrote: post #29
mongol wrote: post #21

It is unfortunte that discussion about the Ukraine war is so absent from HN. I understand that it is a complex topic that may drown HN's real purpose, but the HN readership use to have really insightful takes on most topics.

I think it's understandable. It's very hard to believe whatever either side is reporting. And before you say that's what Russian bots want you to believe, I'll add I lost my trust after Iraq war reporting (like who in their right mind confuses plot of The Rock (film) and WMD in real life), and then after Trump's victory in 2016 (media I was following at the time were making it out to be a sure fire thing for Hillary…

It seems so easy to fall into a false balance trap. But while Western media is certainly flawed, there’s a fundamental difference between honest mistakes and intentional lies. The truth is very unlikely to be half-way between the two.

Compare: The 2016 election mispredictions were one of the most discussed topics for months in the aftermath. The Bush administration’s WMD claims are still regularly discussed, at least outside of Fox News. Journalists have in general become more skeptical of US government claims as a result ever since. That’s widely considered a good thing.

On the other hand: Russian media, as should be obvious for anyone with better memory than a proverbial goldfish, doesn’t even care how today’s message contradicts yesterday’s. The sanctions are ineffective and a grave act of war and must be stopped immediately and actually don’t work. Ukraine will never be attacked, and is actually Russian, and commits an anti-Russian genocide, and isn’t a nation, and will no longer be a nation if it doesn’t surrender immediately, and isn’t actually being attacked. It’s so inconsistent with itself that you don’t even need a second source to spot the lies.

I might feel nice and wise and balanced, but I don’t think these are circumstances where believing “both sides” is intellectually defensible.

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#88

Post by varispeed »

CodeArtisan wrote: post #81

Is there any proof that Chechens soldiers have suffered heavy losses? There were rumors that Ukrainian army bombarded them after the Chechens themselves leaked their positions by posting videos on tiktok/instagram/telegram. The Kadyrov part in this text seems to be built on these rumors. edit: the part i am referring to: Kadyrov's lost his mind. Almost started another conflict with us. It's possible that the Ukrainia…

From the videos I saw, I'd say they are mostly gone. There may be a handful that managed to stay alive and escaped.

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#89

Post by dragonwriter »

junon wrote: post #63
throwaway2048 wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russia has been stating ukraine was trying to develop nuclear weapons for a week now.

Sources for that? If so, it's not been pushed as major news until today.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/23/us/politics/putin-ukraine...

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#90

Post by throwmeariver1 »

tankenmate wrote: post #85
throwmeariver1 wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are a lot of communities that are functioning way better after they implemented a strict no politics policy. It's a strawman argument. Especially considering the populous of hackernews of which 90% don't believe that they can be manipulated by advertising because they are too intelligent. It's gonna be a shitshow.

As soon as you have more than two people you have politics, regardless of whether it is small "p" politics or big "P" politics. Politics is a function of human communities, there is a 100% correlation. I suspect what you were looking for is not "no politics" but "be conservative in what you say and liberal in what you hear", i.e. think more of the group than yourself. Or for those who can't read between the lines; "d…

No, I mean strict ban on sight no politics like it helped usenet and irc communities in the 90s and helps slack, discord, reddit and other forums right now. Stay on topic or gtfo.
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