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China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine

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Re: China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine

#111

Post by somewhereoutth »

kingcharles wrote: post #94
kerneloftruth wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One thing is sure: if China still wants to invade Taiwan, they certainly have postponed their plans by a few years, maybe a decade, maybe even more. How can you be so certain? This reminds me of people saying just 14 days ago "I don't think Putin is going to invade." Taiwan is not Ukraine, indeed -- Taiwan would be easier to capture because it is an island. There aren't land borders across which supplies and weapons…

> some sanctions Some sanctions? The entire Russian economy has disappeared overnight. The only reason it has not been felt yet is due to inertia. There are still just about enough goods in the pipes to support things for weeks or months. But once computers start breaking, planes start breaking, shelves start to empty, and nothing is arriving to replace them, shit is going to hit the fan.

Indeed. They're being unplugged from the 21st century.

Re: China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine

#112

Post by JadeNB »

ipnon wrote: post #97
kerneloftruth wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One thing is sure: if China still wants to invade Taiwan, they certainly have postponed their plans by a few years, maybe a decade, maybe even more. How can you be so certain? This reminds me of people saying just 14 days ago "I don't think Putin is going to invade." Taiwan is not Ukraine, indeed -- Taiwan would be easier to capture because it is an island. There aren't land borders across which supplies and weapons…

To counter this claim, I'd ask you to consider which of two similarly sized invasions was easier to achieve: D-Day and the invasion of Western Europe, or Operation Barbarossa and the invasion of Eastern Europe. You may also consider why the Nazis never made it to Great Britain, and why Great Britain has been insulated from the Great Wars of Europe more often than it has taken part in the conflicts.

> To counter this claim, I'd ask you to consider which of two similarly sized invasions was easier to achieve: D-Day and the invasion of Western Europe, or Operation Barbarossa and the invasion of Eastern Europe. You may also consider why the Nazis never made it to Great Britain, and why Great Britain has been insulated from the Great Wars of Europe more often than it has taken part in the conflicts.

It seems that this paragraph is meant to suggest that Barbarossa was easier than D-Day, but this might not be the best example, since Barbarossa failed and D-Day succeeded. (Of course, a lot of things could have gone differently that could have made the outcomes very different, but I still find this example a little unconvincing.)

Re: China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine

#113

Post by Etherlord87 »

internet_user wrote: post #100
credit_guy wrote: post #52

One thing is sure: if China still wants to invade Taiwan, they certainly have postponed their plans by a few years, maybe a decade, maybe even more. The attempted invasion of Ukraine by Russia just reminded people that the best war plans don't survive the first contact with the enemy (apparently stated by the Prussian general Moltke), or in the more folksy words of Mike Tyson, everyone has a plan until they get punch…

>In 2014, Russia achieved a military miracle: they took over Crimea so quickly and without loss of blood, that they delivered a "fait accompli". Oh, how much would China like to replicate that in Taiwan. And that's what they were preparing for. That only seems like a miracle because you need to do more research into what Crimea actually is. Crimea was never actually part of Ukraine, only a paper "gift" to Ukranian SS…

> Crimea was never actually part of Ukraine

You mean never before 1954. After the collapse of USSR, in 1994 Russia agreed to respect Ukraine's independence with its current (back then) borders, signed in the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances.

Re: China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine

#114

Post by bingohbangoh »

credit_guy wrote: post #52

One thing is sure: if China still wants to invade Taiwan, they certainly have postponed their plans by a few years, maybe a decade, maybe even more. The attempted invasion of Ukraine by Russia just reminded people that the best war plans don't survive the first contact with the enemy (apparently stated by the Prussian general Moltke), or in the more folksy words of Mike Tyson, everyone has a plan until they get punch…

I legitimately don't understand where all these "Ukraine is obviously winning" takes are coming from.

If Ukraine was doing well, it wouldn't be giving out weapons to civilians [0], forming penal battalions [1], or lie about receiving NATO planes. [2]

If Ukraine was doing well, it wouldn't be inflating death counts to be larger than the US involvement in Afghanistan, a 20 year period of time. [3,4]

If Ukraine was doing well, they wouldn't need to make up a story about the Ghosts of Kyiv. [5,6]

I am utterly utterly perplexed. Where is any semblance of proof that Russia is doing badly? They seem to be encircling the capital and winning city after city. It's only two weeks in. Did we expect better after the early adrenaline rush? Do they benefit from being told this? Are we just being setup to be told this is a Pyrrhic victory for the Russians?

[0]: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/26/ukraine-russ... [1]: https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-releases-prisoners-combat-e... [2]: https://www.newsweek.com/eu-ukraine-fighter-jet-promise-fall... [3]: https://www.radiosvoboda.org/a/news-oon-kst-gertv-boyovyh-do... [4]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_in_Afghanistan_(2001%E2%80... [5]: https://www.dw.com/en/fact-check-ukraines-ghost-of-kyiv-figh... [6]: https://twitter.com/KFCBarstool/status/1497366093362520065?s...

Re: China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine

#115

Post by T-A »

bllguo wrote: post #105
T-A wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> "thriving" is quite generous considering their economy https://www.statista.com/statistics/727592/gross-domestic-pr... https://www.statista.com/statistics/263775/gross-domestic-pr... > and reliance on foreign powers ?

growth driven largely by reliance on guess who, mainland China. Who accounts for >40% of Taiwan's exports. Maybe I phrased things poorly but the point is that mainlanders do not see much to envy. how do you propose that changes exactly?

> mainlanders do not see much to envy

This is a classic case of citation needed.

It's easy enough to do for the reverse, i.e. that the Taiwanese are not overly enthused by the prospect of "reunification":

https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2021/12/30/2...

Re: China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine

#116

Post by SkyMarshal »

credit_guy wrote: post #52

One thing is sure: if China still wants to invade Taiwan, they certainly have postponed their plans by a few years, maybe a decade, maybe even more. The attempted invasion of Ukraine by Russia just reminded people that the best war plans don't survive the first contact with the enemy (apparently stated by the Prussian general Moltke), or in the more folksy words of Mike Tyson, everyone has a plan until they get punch…

> One thing is sure: if China still wants to invade Taiwan, they certainly have postponed their plans by a few years, maybe a decade, maybe even more.

Not necessarily. CPC is still waiting to see what the US and NATO do in response to the Russian invasion, and especially Putin's threats of nuclear escalation.

If China perceives that all the West will do is sanctions on Russia, but no direct military intervention to prevent a democratic country from being taken over by force, then China will deduce that nuclear saber rattling is enough to ensure the US won't intervene in a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.

That may lead them to accelerate their plans to do just that, to accomplish it during a time that 1) Western leadership is easily deterred by nuclear threats, 2) the Chinese Navy has more ships than the US Navy, and 3) US and NATO are divided into fighting a 2-front war.

CPC is also waiting to see the full extent of sanctions on and potential decoupling with Russia, how far the West will go in that regard. If CPC believes they could survive the same, again they'll be encouraged to accelerate their Taiwain plans.

The jury's still out, but it's not a given that events have already decelerated CPC's intent to invade Taiwan. That's still up in the air.

Re: China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine

#118

Post by dirtyid »

credit_guy wrote: post #52

One thing is sure: if China still wants to invade Taiwan, they certainly have postponed their plans by a few years, maybe a decade, maybe even more. The attempted invasion of Ukraine by Russia just reminded people that the best war plans don't survive the first contact with the enemy (apparently stated by the Prussian general Moltke), or in the more folksy words of Mike Tyson, everyone has a plan until they get punch…

Not really. PRC war/political plans for TW has always assumed worst case scenario of US intervention. Any TW plan is a US deterrence plan foremost, which if successful opens up various options for TW from blockade to full out invasion. TW can be dismantled at leisure as long as PRC can deter US.

The real question is whether PRC will take "half measure" options off the table and skip straight to leveling the island. UKR military improvements since 2014 thanks to western support is basically the porcupine model US has been pushing on TW. As was expanding US/NATO security architecture to trigger current "fighting to the last Ukrainian" strategy. Which has has pushed RU from "special operations" that would have spared most of the population to scorched earth. We'll have to see if UKR/TW thinks that's worth it once frank appraisal occurs when/if this war ends. This could very be a decade long war that turns most of Ukraine into Yemen. Except much harder for TW as an island not self sufficient in anything to support a prolonged insurgency.

In the meantime, PRC has learned that US/NATO will not interdict directly when you have 6000 nukes instead of just 300. That most of major non-west resource exporters have remained neutral. There's also opportunity a prolonged war will divide US attention across Atlantic again. Better to push sooner when US military has not pivoted and TW is still at UKR 2014 levels of ill preparedness - many of potentially lessons and developments that could push TW scenario sooner instead of delay it.

Re: China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine

#119

Post by Etherlord87 »

kerneloftruth wrote: post #86
credit_guy wrote: post #52

One thing is sure: if China still wants to invade Taiwan, they certainly have postponed their plans by a few years, maybe a decade, maybe even more. The attempted invasion of Ukraine by Russia just reminded people that the best war plans don't survive the first contact with the enemy (apparently stated by the Prussian general Moltke), or in the more folksy words of Mike Tyson, everyone has a plan until they get punch…

One thing is sure: if China still wants to invade Taiwan, they certainly have postponed their plans by a few years, maybe a decade, maybe even more. How can you be so certain? This reminds me of people saying just 14 days ago "I don't think Putin is going to invade." Taiwan is not Ukraine, indeed -- Taiwan would be easier to capture because it is an island. There aren't land borders across which supplies and weapons…

The worst thing, that you don't mention: China has a much stronger economy than Russia. Currently we're cutting Russia from almost everything, but still (as silently as we can) buy its gas - because it would be very hard for us to stop buying it.

Cutting off China? That would hurt both sides to the point I doubt it's even possible... But then again I wouldn't expect cutting Russia the way we did was possible. Still, even individuals boycotting China would probably hurt more than Taiwan is worth?

Re: China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine

#120

Post by zthrowaway »

_hypx wrote: post #108
throwaway_4ever wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's super rare Is it? How do you define super rare? I live in a low crime US suburb and still personally know 3 homes that have been invaded: friend's next door neighbor, a house 200ft away, and the literal across the street neighbor.

Home invasion means forcefully breaking into someone's house where there are people in it. It's very different than a burglary. Burglaries are common, but the former is rare.

And having a firearm to protect your life in that rare situation is still important…

The police are the cleanup crew, those first 5-10 minutes you’re on your own.

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