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China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine

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Re: China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine

#91

Post by throwaway_4ever »

windpower wrote: post #69
daenz wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's been mind boggling to see anti 2A people in my social circle cheer for normal Ukrainian citizens arming themselves with "weapons of war" that "wouldn't do anything against a country with drones and nukes." I hope a silver lining of this conflict is remembering that protecting your life and your family's lives with firearms is an inalienable right.

I'm someone you would describe as "anti 2A". I still think the "defense against home invasion" style argument is mostly nonsense. It's super rare, and I don't think the benefits of guns outweigh the downsides for that kind of self defense. (Having been a victim of exactly such a crime, I'm glad neither I nor the burglar had a gun.) However, seeing Ukrainians take up arms to fight an invasion has caused me to re-evalu…

> It's super rare

Is it? How do you define super rare? I live in a low crime US suburb and still personally know 3 homes that have been invaded: friend's next door neighbor, a house 200ft away, and the literal across the street neighbor.

Re: China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine

#92

Post by tharne »

Meh, I'm getting very tired of these types of articles. Why is it so hard to simply admit that it's really hard if not impossible to predict complex things like this?

The types of people that write these articles also believed at one time:

- China becoming capitalist would cause it to become a liberal democracy

- Globalization would be amazing for everyone everywhere

- The Afghan army would be able to stand up to the Taliban

- Russia would not invade the Ukraine, but on the off chance they did, they'd roll right over the country in no time at all.

The fact is when it comes to this kind of stuff, we just don't know and we probably never will. That's just the nature of complexity. You miss one minor detail or some tiny assumption or some "unknown unknown" is off and the whole intellectual scaffolding comes down.

Re: China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine

#93

Post by tejohnso »

jmull wrote: post #50
manachar wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russia didn't hide their military buildup, they just lied and gaslit the world via their various disinformation channels into believing that Putin would have to be insane to actually invade.

Were there very many people who didn’t think Russia’s buildup was almost certainly a precursor to an invasion? I hadn’t heard of that before.

Zelenskyy himself was telling people to calm down with the invasion rhetoric, indicating that there is no evidence of an imminent invasion, and that the rhetoric is counter productive.

Personally, I thought Putin would establish a stronghold in the Donbas and gradually improve position from there. This full on assault of the entire country is shocking and seems wildly aggressive and overly ambitious.

Re: China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine

#94

Post by kingcharles »

kerneloftruth wrote: post #86
credit_guy wrote: post #52

One thing is sure: if China still wants to invade Taiwan, they certainly have postponed their plans by a few years, maybe a decade, maybe even more. The attempted invasion of Ukraine by Russia just reminded people that the best war plans don't survive the first contact with the enemy (apparently stated by the Prussian general Moltke), or in the more folksy words of Mike Tyson, everyone has a plan until they get punch…

One thing is sure: if China still wants to invade Taiwan, they certainly have postponed their plans by a few years, maybe a decade, maybe even more. How can you be so certain? This reminds me of people saying just 14 days ago "I don't think Putin is going to invade." Taiwan is not Ukraine, indeed -- Taiwan would be easier to capture because it is an island. There aren't land borders across which supplies and weapons…

> some sanctions

Some sanctions? The entire Russian economy has disappeared overnight. The only reason it has not been felt yet is due to inertia. There are still just about enough goods in the pipes to support things for weeks or months. But once computers start breaking, planes start breaking, shelves start to empty, and nothing is arriving to replace them, shit is going to hit the fan.

Re: China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine

#95

Post by DennisP »

stickfigure wrote: post #5

The invasion of Taiwan would require a massive amphibious assault across a sea full of hostile submarines. You couldn't hide all the ships required from satellites. And China's economy depends heavily on trade with the west-aligned world.

But for some reason, China is massively expanding its navy, with lots of amphibious ships along with advanced weaponry that would be a serious problem for the US.

Re: China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine

#96

Post by scythe »

bllguo wrote: post #43
T-A wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Fixating on TSMC is for myopic tech geeks. Yes, it's important, but not nearly as important in the grand scheme of things as: - A thriving Chinese democracy showing the mainland that no, they are not intrinsically incompatible with freedom. - The credibility of the US as an ally to other Asian countries. - Taiwan's strategic location.

I'd counter with your opinion being exceedingly naive.. "thriving" is quite generous considering their economy and reliance on foreign powers. And culturally they're making the same mistake as Hong Kong in alienating mainlanders. don't think we have reconcilable opinions on US motivations but hey I'll gladly be wrong as long as there's no war

Taiwan has an HDI of .916 and a Gini of 34. China has an HDI of .761 and a Gini of 47. That's quite a gap.

Also, they're only "reliant" on foreign powers insofar as they're under threat. Sri Lanka is not "reliant" on foreign powers because India is not threatening them.

Re: China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine

#97

Post by ipnon »

kerneloftruth wrote: post #86
credit_guy wrote: post #52

One thing is sure: if China still wants to invade Taiwan, they certainly have postponed their plans by a few years, maybe a decade, maybe even more. The attempted invasion of Ukraine by Russia just reminded people that the best war plans don't survive the first contact with the enemy (apparently stated by the Prussian general Moltke), or in the more folksy words of Mike Tyson, everyone has a plan until they get punch…

One thing is sure: if China still wants to invade Taiwan, they certainly have postponed their plans by a few years, maybe a decade, maybe even more. How can you be so certain? This reminds me of people saying just 14 days ago "I don't think Putin is going to invade." Taiwan is not Ukraine, indeed -- Taiwan would be easier to capture because it is an island. There aren't land borders across which supplies and weapons…

To counter this claim, I'd ask you to consider which of two similarly sized invasions was easier to achieve: D-Day and the invasion of Western Europe, or Operation Barbarossa and the invasion of Eastern Europe. You may also consider why the Nazis never made it to Great Britain, and why Great Britain has been insulated from the Great Wars of Europe more often than it has taken part in the conflicts.

Re: China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine

#98

Post by internet_user »

ep103 wrote: post #75
jacquesm wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Based on what I've seen for the past two years, many people do not value freedom, even in the United States. I suspect this is a universal truth.

People value stability, wealth, quality and ease of life and peace. Freedom is the vehicle that maintains these things. But that, apparently, requires education to remember.

> ease of life

Given the amount of covid alarmism even now, I'm not so sure. There are people out there protesting to re-instate mask mandates.

People like being governed. Life is hard on your own.

Re: China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine

#99

Post by wizzwizz4 »

BbzzbB wrote: post #74
wizzwizz4 wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I hope we live to see the conditions that make it plausible go away.

I do too, but how would that look like? I'm not sure how likely it is to when the incumbent empire and the aspiring one are both armed to the tits, neither of which will give up on their claim or their military. Even without confrontation they'll both keep force projecting. I think we just gotta hope there's mutual resistance to any physical escalation, either direct or by proxy, and that the competition remains econ…

Governments don't have power if the people just drift out of their power. That's one way. Alternatively, one or the other could go the way of Rome (400 and later). I don't think that's likely, but it's possible.

Or, most likely (of the options I've suggested), the next leaders care more about peace than the current ones.

Re: China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine

#100

Post by internet_user »

credit_guy wrote: post #52

One thing is sure: if China still wants to invade Taiwan, they certainly have postponed their plans by a few years, maybe a decade, maybe even more. The attempted invasion of Ukraine by Russia just reminded people that the best war plans don't survive the first contact with the enemy (apparently stated by the Prussian general Moltke), or in the more folksy words of Mike Tyson, everyone has a plan until they get punch…

>In 2014, Russia achieved a military miracle: they took over Crimea so quickly and without loss of blood, that they delivered a "fait accompli". Oh, how much would China like to replicate that in Taiwan. And that's what they were preparing for.

That only seems like a miracle because you need to do more research into what Crimea actually is.

Crimea was never actually part of Ukraine, only a paper "gift" to Ukranian SSR way back when, negligible amounts of ethnic Ukrainians live there. Nearly the entire jurisdiction is employed supporting the mostly russian tourist industry, or actual russian military, their Black Sea fleet.

There were simply no other outcomes possible. It was a defacto Russian territory, with a token Ukranian security force against an entire Russian Black Sea fleet, and tens of thousands sailors and marines. It seems that even Ukraine itself didn't wholeheartedly consider Crimea it's own territory, essentially no resistance whatsoever.

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