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China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine
101–110 of 204 posts
Re: China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine
#102I suspect china is looking at this and thinking a number of things: 1) It needs to control banking infra (it has a messaging system similar to swift already) 2) Putin is acting even more boldly than normal (I suspect it was assuming that he would try and fully annex donbas & Luhansk and a bit more, then wait another few years to try again) 3) The Russian bear that is it's land army really isn't that great. The modern…
"best buddies" but real politik > than friendship for dictators.
Not just for dictators
Re: China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine
#103Earlier quoted context omitted.
Russia waltzed into the Black Sea with it's navy without a hitch.
And what did they do with it? How is that related to Taiwan?
They partook in an invasion with it maybe? Do you think Ukrainians scuttled their own ships for fun or because they wanted to slow down whatever role Russia's navy can have with access to ports?
"You couldn't hide all the ships" implies that would stop or deter them from moving in if they wanted to. Russia's navy getting to the Black Sea no questions asked has shown you can make obviously aggressive military repositioning without repercussion (unless the West gets more proactive with sanctions after this).
Re: China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine
#104Earlier quoted context omitted.
> If Xi wants to invade Taiwan, 90% is based on his power fight within the party, not the geopolitics. Citation? Which part of the communist party does NOT want Taiwan back if it could get it without massive geopolitical consequences?
Many high officials have strong financial interest against this. In Xi's eyes they are corrupted. But there are too many of them and Xi need some of their support. That's why anti-corruption campaign is crucial to achieve party's (Xi's) political goals.
Your original point that the West's influence, through geopolitics, mattered very little, and internal party power struggles determined Taiwan's fate is inaccurate. It doesn't matter if Xi is directly aware of geopolitics or if its impact, through proxies, shape his decision, it's still geopolitical consequences that largely protects Taiwan.
Rivals are partially against an invasion because it harms them financially, or harms their family's interests. This is amplified by their desire to not give Xi a victory, but if the deterrent didn't exist, surely there could be no plausible push back.
Re: China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine
#105Earlier quoted context omitted.
I'd counter with your opinion being exceedingly naive.. "thriving" is quite generous considering their economy and reliance on foreign powers. And culturally they're making the same mistake as Hong Kong in alienating mainlanders. don't think we have reconcilable opinions on US motivations but hey I'll gladly be wrong as long as there's no war
> "thriving" is quite generous considering their economy https://www.statista.com/statistics/727592/gross-domestic-pr... https://www.statista.com/statistics/263775/gross-domestic-pr... > and reliance on foreign powers ?
growth driven largely by reliance on guess who, mainland China. Who accounts for >40% of Taiwan's exports.
Maybe I phrased things poorly but the point is that mainlanders do not see much to envy. how do you propose that changes exactly?
Re: China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine
#106Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's been mind boggling to see anti 2A people in my social circle cheer for normal Ukrainian citizens arming themselves with "weapons of war" that "wouldn't do anything against a country with drones and nukes." I hope a silver lining of this conflict is remembering that protecting your life and your family's lives with firearms is an inalienable right.
I'm someone you would describe as "anti 2A". I still think the "defense against home invasion" style argument is mostly nonsense. It's super rare, and I don't think the benefits of guns outweigh the downsides for that kind of self defense. (Having been a victim of exactly such a crime, I'm glad neither I nor the burglar had a gun.) However, seeing Ukrainians take up arms to fight an invasion has caused me to re-evalu…
It's not that hard to arm a society when war breaks out. That is the same mentality that countries like Switzerland has. The "2A argument" is quite a bit different, and has very few similarities with what is going on at the start of a war.
Re: China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine
#107Earlier quoted context omitted.
How could Taiwan - a country not in the North Atlantic - join NATO?
Good point. When I think of Turkey, the first thing that comes to my mind is "North Atlantic", same as you apparently.
Turkey is explicitly in the geographic area covered by NATO, though (I would assume North Atlantic, North America, Mediterranean, Europe, Turkey and Algerian Departments of France Treaty Organization or NANAMETADFTO was considered too long of a name).
Taiwan is thousands of miles outside of it.
Re: China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine
#108Earlier quoted context omitted.
I'm someone you would describe as "anti 2A". I still think the "defense against home invasion" style argument is mostly nonsense. It's super rare, and I don't think the benefits of guns outweigh the downsides for that kind of self defense. (Having been a victim of exactly such a crime, I'm glad neither I nor the burglar had a gun.) However, seeing Ukrainians take up arms to fight an invasion has caused me to re-evalu…
> It's super rare Is it? How do you define super rare? I live in a low crime US suburb and still personally know 3 homes that have been invaded: friend's next door neighbor, a house 200ft away, and the literal across the street neighbor.
Home invasion means forcefully breaking into someone's house where there are people in it. It's very different than a burglary. Burglaries are common, but the former is rare.
Re: China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine
#109Earlier quoted context omitted.
I hope we live to see the conditions that make it plausible go away.
I do too, but how would that look like? I'm not sure how likely it is to when the incumbent empire and the aspiring one are both armed to the tits, neither of which will give up on their claim or their military. Even without confrontation they'll both keep force projecting. I think we just gotta hope there's mutual resistance to any physical escalation, either direct or by proxy, and that the competition remains econ…
Recognition from the PRC that Taiwan is an independent nation or the absorption of Taiwan as a province of the PRC.
The stalemate will probably last a long time.
Re: China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine
#110China would very much prefer that Taiwan ask to reunite with the mainland. Forcing them back one day might be in the cards but setting the conditions to where Taiwan sees being part of China as being the better option than relying on the United States for its safety is what China would like to happen. Finding ways to drive wedges between the US and Taiwan is a part of this strategy.
> ways to drive wedges between the US and Taiwan is a part of this strategy. If that is the strategy, then it is failing. Taiwan is more anti-unification than it has ever been, and the people there already consider themselves to be an independent country.
They consider themselves China actually. So maybe the Republic of China would prefer that the People's Republic of China ask to reunite with them.