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China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine

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Re: China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine

#71

Post by stale2002 »

Mountain_Skies wrote: post #8

China would very much prefer that Taiwan ask to reunite with the mainland. Forcing them back one day might be in the cards but setting the conditions to where Taiwan sees being part of China as being the better option than relying on the United States for its safety is what China would like to happen. Finding ways to drive wedges between the US and Taiwan is a part of this strategy.

> ways to drive wedges between the US and Taiwan is a part of this strategy.

If that is the strategy, then it is failing.

Taiwan is more anti-unification than it has ever been, and the people there already consider themselves to be an independent country.

Re: China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine

#72

Post by stale2002 »

bbotond wrote: post #16
rdtwo wrote: post #10

Maybe Taiwan should try to join NATO. See if that speeds up the invasion

How could Taiwan - a country the US doesn’t recognize - join NATO?

By just being accepted by NATO countries to do so?

Countries can do what they want. There isn't some magic spell, that forces countries to do thing, just because of some semantic game about whether a country is recongized or not.

Taiwan could simply join NATO anyway, if they get approved.

Re: China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine

#73

Post by stickfigure »

dixie_land wrote: post #64
stickfigure wrote: post #5

The invasion of Taiwan would require a massive amphibious assault across a sea full of hostile submarines. You couldn't hide all the ships required from satellites. And China's economy depends heavily on trade with the west-aligned world.

It goes both ways. The current supply chain crisis already demonstrated how reliant EVERYONE is on Chinese manufacturing. No politician would dare to sanction China when it means immediate runaway inflation.

I'll keep posting this list every time this subject comes up:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_largest_trading_pa...

China is 15-25% of the trade for those countries, but the west-aligned countries represent 80% of China's trade. A coordinated trade war would be vastly more devastating for China than the rest of the world.

I don't say this gleefully - I hope it never happens.

Re: China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine

#74

Post by BbzzbB »

wizzwizz4 wrote: post #56
BbzzbB wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I hope we don't live to see China and the USA in a hot war.

I hope we live to see the conditions that make it plausible go away.

I do too, but how would that look like?

I'm not sure how likely it is to when the incumbent empire and the aspiring one are both armed to the tits, neither of which will give up on their claim or their military. Even without confrontation they'll both keep force projecting. I think we just gotta hope there's mutual resistance to any physical escalation, either direct or by proxy, and that the competition remains economical and technological. Turns out even tying the economies to the hip is not an insurance against fighting when those ties turn into weapons in an escalation.

Re: China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine

#75

Post by ep103 »

jacquesm wrote: post #54
yonaguska wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The "population" hasn't been armed. A small amount of people in some areas were armed. And fighting age men have been conscripted. If the goal of the invasion was to destroy infrastructure, that would have happened last week. Armed population or not. Taiwan is completely different from Ukraine culturally, and I don't think simply blanket arming people is a solution there either. Big difference being that the Ukrainia…

> Based on what I've seen for the past two years, many people do not value freedom, even in the United States. I suspect this is a universal truth.

People value stability, wealth, quality and ease of life and peace.

Freedom is the vehicle that maintains these things.

But that, apparently, requires education to remember.

Re: China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine

#76

Post by stickfigure »

BbzzbB wrote: post #57
stickfigure wrote: post #5

The invasion of Taiwan would require a massive amphibious assault across a sea full of hostile submarines. You couldn't hide all the ships required from satellites. And China's economy depends heavily on trade with the west-aligned world.

Russia waltzed into the Black Sea with it's navy without a hitch.

And what did they do with it? How is that related to Taiwan?

Re: China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine

#77

Post by T-A »

bllguo wrote: post #43
T-A wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Fixating on TSMC is for myopic tech geeks. Yes, it's important, but not nearly as important in the grand scheme of things as: - A thriving Chinese democracy showing the mainland that no, they are not intrinsically incompatible with freedom. - The credibility of the US as an ally to other Asian countries. - Taiwan's strategic location.

I'd counter with your opinion being exceedingly naive.. "thriving" is quite generous considering their economy and reliance on foreign powers. And culturally they're making the same mistake as Hong Kong in alienating mainlanders. don't think we have reconcilable opinions on US motivations but hey I'll gladly be wrong as long as there's no war

> "thriving" is quite generous considering their economy

https://www.statista.com/statistics/727592/gross-domestic-pr...

https://www.statista.com/statistics/263775/gross-domestic-pr...

> and reliance on foreign powers

?

Re: China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine

#78

Post by thejohnconway »

justinclift wrote: post #61
BbzzbB wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn't their capacity to maintain an ongoing assault about available meat sacks, ammunition, food and oil - none of which they lack - rather than money?

> food There have been mentions that they're already short on food for their soldiers. Wonder if that's an actual thing, and if so, then how badly short they are? Especially with that old phrase "an army marches on it's stomach" coming to mind. :)

The lack of food among the Russian invading forces (if real) is due to them outrunning their logistics, not a general food shortage in Russia. Russia’s army is not designed to operate more than about 50-100km from their rail network.

Re: China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine

#79

Post by spaetzleesser »

bufferoverflow wrote: post #21

But this war in Ukraine showed one simple truth: if you arm the population, the invasion can only destroy the infrastructure. You can't win over people's minds by killing their loved ones, their neighboors. And you can't keep it under control if every citizen has a gun. You install a puppet government, they will be dead within a week. This is the only way to protect Taiwan. Give them guns and ammo. And teach them tha…

The war in Ukraine hasn’t really shown anything so far. It’s been only a few days. Wait for a few months at minimum and then draw some conclusions.

Re: China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine

#80

Post by AutumnCurtain »

jmull wrote: post #50
manachar wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russia didn't hide their military buildup, they just lied and gaslit the world via their various disinformation channels into believing that Putin would have to be insane to actually invade.

Were there very many people who didn’t think Russia’s buildup was almost certainly a precursor to an invasion? I hadn’t heard of that before.

Absolutely, feel free to peruse my comment history for examples right here on this site.
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