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China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine

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Re: China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine

#61

Post by justinclift »

BbzzbB wrote: post #51
mirntyfirty wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t think they have the economic resources to sustain a prolonged engagement or occupation.

Isn't their capacity to maintain an ongoing assault about available meat sacks, ammunition, food and oil - none of which they lack - rather than money?

> food

There have been mentions that they're already short on food for their soldiers. Wonder if that's an actual thing, and if so, then how badly short they are?

Especially with that old phrase "an army marches on it's stomach" coming to mind. :)

Re: China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine

#62

Post by Supermancho »

sharikous wrote: post #24
bufferoverflow wrote: post #21

But this war in Ukraine showed one simple truth: if you arm the population, the invasion can only destroy the infrastructure. You can't win over people's minds by killing their loved ones, their neighboors. And you can't keep it under control if every citizen has a gun. You install a puppet government, they will be dead within a week. This is the only way to protect Taiwan. Give them guns and ammo. And teach them tha…

For now. It's absolutely possible to keep a territory under your control by force if you look at the historical record. You can't extrapolate such a far fetched conclusion from one data point on how string the Ukraunian resistance seems in the first weeks of a war.

The Israeli's have managed to hold territory by force. The difference is that worldwide support was in favor of them instead of the Palestinians.

I would say that you cannot hold a region by force alone unless you commit to multiple generations of occupation AND manage to maintain when superpowers oppose it.

Re: China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine

#63

Post by wizzwizz4 »

schleck8 wrote: post #6
hulitu wrote: post #2

There is an institute of peace in US ? It hasn't been active in the last 80 years. As G. Orwell said: war is peace.

Per Orwell you wouldn't even know the phrase is ironic, so apparently it does not apply.

It's a good, if horrifying, book; you should read it. But no, the point of doublethink isn't that people don't know that they're doing it; it's that they betray themselves and support the Party.

Re: China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine

#64

Post by dixie_land »

stickfigure wrote: post #5

The invasion of Taiwan would require a massive amphibious assault across a sea full of hostile submarines. You couldn't hide all the ships required from satellites. And China's economy depends heavily on trade with the west-aligned world.

It goes both ways. The current supply chain crisis already demonstrated how reliant EVERYONE is on Chinese manufacturing. No politician would dare to sanction China when it means immediate runaway inflation.

Re: China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine

#65

Post by posnet »

temp8964 wrote: post #55
ctvo wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If Xi wants to invade Taiwan, 90% is based on his power fight within the party, not the geopolitics. Citation? Which part of the communist party does NOT want Taiwan back if it could get it without massive geopolitical consequences?

Many high officials have strong financial interest against this. In Xi's eyes they are corrupted. But there are too many of them and Xi need some of their support. That's why anti-corruption campaign is crucial to achieve party's (Xi's) political goals.

China's anti-corruption campaigns have nothing to do with corruption and are just populist pretext for removing political enemies.

Re: China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine

#66

Post by baybal2 »

mrighele wrote: post #38
manachar wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russia didn't hide their military buildup, they just lied and gaslit the world via their various disinformation channels into believing that Putin would have to be insane to actually invade.

To be fair, many experts too believed that it was madness to invade Ukraine. And, judging by the faces on the videos that I saw, many members of his cabinet and top generals were thinking the same.

[dead]

Re: China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine

#67

Post by colinmhayes »

vkou wrote: post #34
rufus_foreman wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Good point. When I think of Turkey, the first thing that comes to my mind is "North Atlantic", same as you apparently.

The Mediterranean is technically part of the North Atlantic. If Greece can be in NATO, why not Turkey? But no, most of Europe isn't interested in spilling blood over Taiwan, just like it isn't interested in spilling blood over Ukraine.

> The Mediterranean is technically part of the North Atlantic.

I'm not sure this is true. What actually happened is that NATO countries realized expanding NATO is in their interest so they ignored the "north atlantic" part of the treaty. While I doubt taiwan will be invited any time soon it wouldn't surprise me at all if Japan or even South Korea is.

Re: China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine

#68

Post by chrchang523 »

One significant omission from this comparison: the Ukraine:Russia population ratio (~0.285) is almost TWENTY TIMES as large as the Taiwan:PRC ratio (~0.0163). The Ukraine:Russia ratio is almost as large as the ratio between the Confederacy's non-slave population and the Union's population at the time the US Civil War broke out; and I suspect that some overly optimistic Russian military planners did not properly account for this. So, although it is harder for the PRC to invade Taiwan than it is for Russia to invade Ukraine for a number of reasons, I expect it to be more difficult for Russia to keep most of Ukraine pacified even if they do achieve their primary military objectives.

Re: China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine

#69

Post by windpower »

daenz wrote: post #58
bufferoverflow wrote: post #21

But this war in Ukraine showed one simple truth: if you arm the population, the invasion can only destroy the infrastructure. You can't win over people's minds by killing their loved ones, their neighboors. And you can't keep it under control if every citizen has a gun. You install a puppet government, they will be dead within a week. This is the only way to protect Taiwan. Give them guns and ammo. And teach them tha…

It's been mind boggling to see anti 2A people in my social circle cheer for normal Ukrainian citizens arming themselves with "weapons of war" that "wouldn't do anything against a country with drones and nukes." I hope a silver lining of this conflict is remembering that protecting your life and your family's lives with firearms is an inalienable right.

I'm someone you would describe as "anti 2A". I still think the "defense against home invasion" style argument is mostly nonsense. It's super rare, and I don't think the benefits of guns outweigh the downsides for that kind of self defense. (Having been a victim of exactly such a crime, I'm glad neither I nor the burglar had a gun.)

However, seeing Ukrainians take up arms to fight an invasion has caused me to re-evaluate my position in general, and I actually think an armed population is likely better than the alternative. I'm sure Finland isn't unhappy that they're heavily armed right now.

Re: China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine

#70

Post by pstrateman »

posnet wrote: post #65
temp8964 wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Many high officials have strong financial interest against this. In Xi's eyes they are corrupted. But there are too many of them and Xi need some of their support. That's why anti-corruption campaign is crucial to achieve party's (Xi's) political goals.

China's anti-corruption campaigns have nothing to do with corruption and are just populist pretext for removing political enemies.

I think you're agreeing with the parent.
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