China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine • Hacker News Board

Re: China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine

#31

Post by qqtt » Sat, Mar 05, 2022, 8:41 PM UTC

bufferoverflow wrote: post #21

But this war in Ukraine showed one simple truth: if you arm the population, the invasion can only destroy the infrastructure. You can't win over people's minds by killing their loved ones, their neighboors. And you can't keep it under control if every citizen has a gun. You install a puppet government, they will be dead within a week. This is the only way to protect Taiwan. Give them guns and ammo. And teach them tha…

> But this war in Ukraine showed one simple truth: if you arm the population, the invasion can only destroy the infrastructure.

There are no simple conclusions about what is happening right now in Ukraine, and it is a fool's errand to declare any kind of conclusion 10 days into an invasion which already displaced millions of people and in which almost every major Ukrainian city is under siege teetering on the edge.

Russia's economy destroyed? Ukraine successfully resisted the invasion? All Russia can do is destroy infrastructure?

All those jumping to conclusions regarding the Ukraine situation remind me of Bush standing in front of a Mission Accomplished banner after 20 days of the Iraq invasion.

Re: China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine

#32

Post by mirntyfirty » Sat, Mar 05, 2022, 8:41 PM UTC

sharikous wrote: post #24

bufferoverflow wrote: post #21

But this war in Ukraine showed one simple truth: if you arm the population, the invasion can only destroy the infrastructure. You can't win over people's minds by killing their loved ones, their neighboors. And you can't keep it under control if every citizen has a gun. You install a puppet government, they will be dead within a week. This is the only way to protect Taiwan. Give them guns and ammo. And teach them tha…

For now. It's absolutely possible to keep a territory under your control by force if you look at the historical record. You can't extrapolate such a far fetched conclusion from one data point on how string the Ukraunian resistance seems in the first weeks of a war.

I don’t think they have the economic resources to sustain a prolonged engagement or occupation.

Re: China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine

#33

Post by sremani » Sat, Mar 05, 2022, 8:41 PM UTC

manachar wrote: post #9

stickfigure wrote: post #5

The invasion of Taiwan would require a massive amphibious assault across a sea full of hostile submarines. You couldn't hide all the ships required from satellites. And China's economy depends heavily on trade with the west-aligned world.

Russia didn't hide their military buildup, they just lied and gaslit the world via their various disinformation channels into believing that Putin would have to be insane to actually invade.

The most vociferous against Russia today are the ones that predicted Putin is not a gambler and would not attack. These are not Putin's puppets. These are the people considered well respected International relations people.

To call everything and everyone Putin's propaganda and disinformation is simplistic. Hindsight is 2020, it always feels like we missed the obvious signs.

Re: China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine

#34

Post by vkou » Sat, Mar 05, 2022, 8:46 PM UTC

rufus_foreman wrote: post #30

IanDrake wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How could Taiwan - a country not in the North Atlantic - join NATO?

Good point. When I think of Turkey, the first thing that comes to my mind is "North Atlantic", same as you apparently.

The Mediterranean is technically part of the North Atlantic. If Greece can be in NATO, why not Turkey?

But no, most of Europe isn't interested in spilling blood over Taiwan, just like it isn't interested in spilling blood over Ukraine.

Re: China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine

#35

Post by temp8964 » Sat, Mar 05, 2022, 8:49 PM UTC

Much of these analyses are useless unless you put domestic politics into calculation.

If Xi wants to invade Taiwan, 90% is based on his power fight within the party, not the geopolitics.

One crucial part of Xi's ruling is that Xi has not appointed his successor yet. Xi wants to stay. Does invading Taiwan help or hurt him to stay longer? That's his calculation.

Re: China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine

#36

Post by narag » Sat, Mar 05, 2022, 8:53 PM UTC

This sounds pretty much like good cop, bad cop.

Also the bottom line: is it wise to have deals with someone that's not accountable to their own people?

What about Xi being replaced by someone with a different personality? While it's about a country's interests, there's another kind of stability.

Re: China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine

#37

Post by yosito » Sat, Mar 05, 2022, 8:55 PM UTC

bufferoverflow wrote: post #21

But this war in Ukraine showed one simple truth: if you arm the population, the invasion can only destroy the infrastructure. You can't win over people's minds by killing their loved ones, their neighboors. And you can't keep it under control if every citizen has a gun. You install a puppet government, they will be dead within a week. This is the only way to protect Taiwan. Give them guns and ammo. And teach them tha…

While this sentiment resonates with me, and probably many Americans, I'm not entirely sure that it would resonate with Taiwanese culture. Even if it did, any attempt to arm Taiwanese citizens is likely to draw a lot of opposition from China.

Re: China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine

#38

Post by mrighele » Sat, Mar 05, 2022, 8:57 PM UTC

manachar wrote: post #9

stickfigure wrote: post #5

The invasion of Taiwan would require a massive amphibious assault across a sea full of hostile submarines. You couldn't hide all the ships required from satellites. And China's economy depends heavily on trade with the west-aligned world.

Russia didn't hide their military buildup, they just lied and gaslit the world via their various disinformation channels into believing that Putin would have to be insane to actually invade.

To be fair, many experts too believed that it was madness to invade Ukraine.

And, judging by the faces on the videos that I saw, many members of his cabinet and top generals were thinking the same.

Re: China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine

#39

Post by axiosgunnar » Sat, Mar 05, 2022, 9:05 PM UTC

mrighele wrote: post #38

manachar wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russia didn't hide their military buildup, they just lied and gaslit the world via their various disinformation channels into believing that Putin would have to be insane to actually invade.

To be fair, many experts too believed that it was madness to invade Ukraine. And, judging by the faces on the videos that I saw, many members of his cabinet and top generals were thinking the same.

And judging by the embarrassments of the last 10 days, it probably was indeed madness to invade.

Re: China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine

#40

Post by KaiserPro » Sat, Mar 05, 2022, 9:05 PM UTC

I suspect china is looking at this and thinking a number of things:

1) It needs to control banking infra (it has a messaging system similar to swift already)

2) Putin is acting even more boldly than normal (I suspect it was assuming that he would try and fully annex donbas & Luhansk and a bit more, then wait another few years to try again)

3) The Russian bear that is it's land army really isn't that great. The modernisation hasn't stretched to tactics or maintenance.

4) Russia shares a decent land border with china, might need to think again about the security there.

Sure Xi and Putin are "best buddies" but real politik > than friendship for dictators.