China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine • Hacker News Board

Re: China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine

#51

Post by BbzzbB » Sat, Mar 05, 2022, 9:38 PM UTC

mirntyfirty wrote: post #32

sharikous wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For now. It's absolutely possible to keep a territory under your control by force if you look at the historical record. You can't extrapolate such a far fetched conclusion from one data point on how string the Ukraunian resistance seems in the first weeks of a war.

I don’t think they have the economic resources to sustain a prolonged engagement or occupation.

Isn't their capacity to maintain an ongoing assault about available meat sacks, ammunition, food and oil - none of which they lack - rather than money?

Re: China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine

#52

Post by credit_guy » Sat, Mar 05, 2022, 9:40 PM UTC

One thing is sure: if China still wants to invade Taiwan, they certainly have postponed their plans by a few years, maybe a decade, maybe even more.

The attempted invasion of Ukraine by Russia just reminded people that the best war plans don't survive the first contact with the enemy (apparently stated by the Prussian general Moltke), or in the more folksy words of Mike Tyson, everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face.

In 2014, Russia achieved a military miracle: they took over Crimea so quickly and without loss of blood, that they delivered a "fait accompli". Oh, how much would China like to replicate that in Taiwan. And that's what they were preparing for.

But now, in 2022, the latest example of an attempted invasion shows that things can still go astray. Why? No doubt China will analyze everything and try to see if they are in danger of experiencing the same problems. But the overall learned lesson will still be that no matter how much you plan, you can still encounter huge obstacles when you start a war.

And the world response in terms of economic sanctions was unbelievable. Definitely, not something China wants.

If anything the prospect of WW3 because of a Chinese miscalculation vis-a-vis Taiwan went down considerably.

Re: China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine

#53

Post by BbzzbB » Sat, Mar 05, 2022, 9:40 PM UTC

stickfigure wrote: post #28

toxik wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They have guns, the two parties warred before. In fact, there was never a formal peace agreement so the war is technically still going on. The asymmetry is in the economics. Taiwan can realistically be strangled by China. This has seemed like the plan from Beijing. Once politically weak, you can take over with sock puppets.

Taiwan cannot be strangled as long as the rest of the world is willing to trade with them. A naval blockade of Taiwan would not be tolerated by the west, and the first US-flagged ship that gets sunk would start real war.

I hope we don't live to see China and the USA in a hot war.

Re: China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine

#54

Post by jacquesm » Sat, Mar 05, 2022, 9:41 PM UTC

yonaguska wrote: post #44

bufferoverflow wrote: post #21

But this war in Ukraine showed one simple truth: if you arm the population, the invasion can only destroy the infrastructure. You can't win over people's minds by killing their loved ones, their neighboors. And you can't keep it under control if every citizen has a gun. You install a puppet government, they will be dead within a week. This is the only way to protect Taiwan. Give them guns and ammo. And teach them tha…

The "population" hasn't been armed. A small amount of people in some areas were armed. And fighting age men have been conscripted. If the goal of the invasion was to destroy infrastructure, that would have happened last week. Armed population or not. Taiwan is completely different from Ukraine culturally, and I don't think simply blanket arming people is a solution there either. Big difference being that the Ukrainia…

> Based on what I've seen for the past two years, many people do not value freedom, even in the United States.

I suspect this is a universal truth.

Re: China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine

#55

Post by temp8964 » Sat, Mar 05, 2022, 9:42 PM UTC

ctvo wrote: post #45

temp8964 wrote: post #35

Much of these analyses are useless unless you put domestic politics into calculation. If Xi wants to invade Taiwan, 90% is based on his power fight within the party, not the geopolitics. One crucial part of Xi's ruling is that Xi has not appointed his successor yet. Xi wants to stay. Does invading Taiwan help or hurt him to stay longer? That's his calculation.

> If Xi wants to invade Taiwan, 90% is based on his power fight within the party, not the geopolitics. Citation? Which part of the communist party does NOT want Taiwan back if it could get it without massive geopolitical consequences?

Many high officials have strong financial interest against this. In Xi's eyes they are corrupted. But there are too many of them and Xi need some of their support. That's why anti-corruption campaign is crucial to achieve party's (Xi's) political goals.

Re: China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine

#56

Post by wizzwizz4 » Sat, Mar 05, 2022, 9:42 PM UTC

BbzzbB wrote: post #53

stickfigure wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Taiwan cannot be strangled as long as the rest of the world is willing to trade with them. A naval blockade of Taiwan would not be tolerated by the west, and the first US-flagged ship that gets sunk would start real war.

I hope we don't live to see China and the USA in a hot war.

I hope we live to see the conditions that make it plausible go away.

Re: China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine

#57

Post by BbzzbB » Sat, Mar 05, 2022, 9:42 PM UTC

stickfigure wrote: post #5

The invasion of Taiwan would require a massive amphibious assault across a sea full of hostile submarines. You couldn't hide all the ships required from satellites. And China's economy depends heavily on trade with the west-aligned world.

Russia waltzed into the Black Sea with it's navy without a hitch.

Re: China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine

#58

Post by daenz » Sat, Mar 05, 2022, 9:43 PM UTC

bufferoverflow wrote: post #21

But this war in Ukraine showed one simple truth: if you arm the population, the invasion can only destroy the infrastructure. You can't win over people's minds by killing their loved ones, their neighboors. And you can't keep it under control if every citizen has a gun. You install a puppet government, they will be dead within a week. This is the only way to protect Taiwan. Give them guns and ammo. And teach them tha…

It's been mind boggling to see anti 2A people in my social circle cheer for normal Ukrainian citizens arming themselves with "weapons of war" that "wouldn't do anything against a country with drones and nukes." I hope a silver lining of this conflict is remembering that protecting your life and your family's lives with firearms is an inalienable right.

Re: China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine

#59

Post by jacquesm » Sat, Mar 05, 2022, 9:45 PM UTC

jmull wrote: post #50

manachar wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russia didn't hide their military buildup, they just lied and gaslit the world via their various disinformation channels into believing that Putin would have to be insane to actually invade.

Were there very many people who didn’t think Russia’s buildup was almost certainly a precursor to an invasion? I hadn’t heard of that before.

There are still people who believe that today. It all depends on what you want to believe. People believe that Russia was forced into this, people believe that Ukranians secretly long to be liberated and saved. People will believe the most crazy stuff.

Re: China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine

#60

Post by jacquesm » Sat, Mar 05, 2022, 9:48 PM UTC

vkou wrote: post #34

rufus_foreman wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Good point. When I think of Turkey, the first thing that comes to my mind is "North Atlantic", same as you apparently.

The Mediterranean is technically part of the North Atlantic. If Greece can be in NATO, why not Turkey? But no, most of Europe isn't interested in spilling blood over Taiwan, just like it isn't interested in spilling blood over Ukraine.

It probably isn't so much the spilling of blood that it isn't interested in rather than the chances of wholesale evaporation but otherwise your point stands.