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Russians are trying to flee – data from Google Trends

economist.com

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Re: Russians are trying to flee – data from Google Trends

#131

Post by [deleted] »

jacquesm wrote: post #24
daenz wrote: post #2

This may very well be true, but I'm having trouble believing anything, from anyone, about the conflict. There is so much propaganda around the subject, that unless you are personally connected to an official source, I believe you can't know with any reasonable certainty. The primary source for this story appears to be public Google Trends data.

Except that there is plenty of evidence that this is really the case. Russians are crossing the border in unprecedented numbers, for instance: https://yle.fi/news/3-12345301 Flying is getting harder and harder so while the borders are still open (there is talk of martial law in Russia, which, even though it was just denied does not seem to have much effect on calming things down, in fact the denial seems to have the…

[deleted]

Re: Russians are trying to flee – data from Google Trends

#132

Post by mbreese »

Tistron wrote: post #47
bsedlm wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

a lot of people seem ok with punishing Russian individuals for the actions of the government. maybe these people have grown in better functioning democracies (unlike Russia or my own country) so they act as if the people were well represented by their governments; unlike reality for most countries with a serious corruption problem.

Everywhere I've seen anyone motivate restrictions on Russian citizens it's been about pushing them to revolt against their government, not about punishing. I don't know whether it makes sense, but it does seem like one of few avenues to try to get rid of putin that has low chance of resulting in atomic war.

It’s not only about revolting, but without a free press, economic sanctions are one way to get people to know that something is going on. Russian citizens may not even know what is happening, but when they suddenly can’t buy thing, when Apple Pay stops working, when costs skyrocket… that gets people to pay attention.

Re: Russians are trying to flee – data from Google Trends

#133

Post by systemvoltage »

mumblemumble wrote: post #117
systemvoltage wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Economist is a short-medium form publication. It has excellent reputation. I am wondering about what's causing you to be overly skeptical? Have there been major reputable publications who have misled you (specifically about Russia)?

That closing question is maybe a bit too open-ended? I will happily defend The Economist as one of the highest-integrity journalistic publications in the world, but they've still misled me in the past. Not in any way that I suspect is intentional, but people do honestly get things wrong sometimes. My own mother has misled me numerous times, always with the best of intentions.

I meant as an inquiry, I would love to see major publications spreading false information (such as Economist, NYT, etc.) and we can discuss about it, referring specifically to the claim of western propaganda against Russia. Not more generally.

Re: Russians are trying to flee – data from Google Trends

#134

Post by hn_throwaway_99 »

daenz wrote: post #36
berberous wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I generally agree with you for most stories and facts about the war, but this one is just obvious. The ruble has declined and the Russian stock market has been closed all week. Russia has been sanctioned. Russia is sending people to fight in a war. There are rumors (whether true or not) that Russia is planning to close borders, impose martial law, etc. Those are all verifiable facts. In the face of the above, of cour…

If it was clearly obvious, then why wouldn't the Economist use these other sources directly, instead of leaning so heavily on Google Trends data? It's a flimsy way to present truth.

I am confused by your stance.

On one hand I do agree that there is a lot of propaganda on all sides, so one should be especially critical about data sources.

On the other hand, I think then that using Google Trends data for this is a pretty excellent source for this data, and a prime example of something that would be difficult to game. It's publicly available, so anyone can verify it. I guess a true conspiracist might think Google is faking the data, but that seems extremely unlikely and bizarre, given that there are whole swaths of terms you could search for to make similar points.

You may reach a different conclusion based on what a 4-5x increase in "Visa" searches means, but if anything this would be an example of data I would have a ton of confidence in.

Re: Russians are trying to flee – data from Google Trends

#135

Post by formvoltron »

rossdavidh wrote: post #83
formvoltron wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Quoted post unavailable.

As an American who has had plenty of disagreement with acts of violence by my government in the past, I have to say I have more sympathy for a Russian who is in this position now. Even in democracies, marching in anti-war protests and voting for anti-war candidates at the next election doesn't always seem to have much impact on the government's behavior, at least in the short term.

And the fact that Moscow people would rather complain than do a simple act of walking downtown together..

* shows that Russian people think that Putin would not use his nukes.

Because if Putin would use his nukes.. isn't walking downtown and shaking your keys a much better outcome!?

Re: Russians are trying to flee – data from Google Trends

#136

Post by therusskiy »

drakonka wrote: post #112
jacquesm wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Fair chance it would turn into a bloodbath. Better would a national strike. Equally difficult to organize but much harder to attack.

It did turn into a bloodbath at Euromaidan, but the people still came out, for months, and fought to change a corrupt regime that lied to them, as they have in many other countries in the past. Russians are not helpless. The main argument when this gets brought up seems to be that it's going to be hard and people will get hurt. Of course Putin isn't going to just throw up his hands and say "Ok guys, you win, I'm out"…

Putin was shaken up by Euromaidan and been preparing so it doesn't happen to him ever since. Ukraine 2014 != Russia 2022. Back then Ukraine even had free speech.

Re: Russians are trying to flee – data from Google Trends

#137

Post by mach1ne »

mbesto wrote: post #108
jacquesm wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except that there is plenty of evidence that this is really the case. Russians are crossing the border in unprecedented numbers, for instance: https://yle.fi/news/3-12345301 Flying is getting harder and harder so while the borders are still open (there is talk of martial law in Russia, which, even though it was just denied does not seem to have much effect on calming things down, in fact the denial seems to have the…

I think you missed the parent's comment. FTA: "Buses travelling from St. Petersburg to Helsinki, Tallinn and Riga are also fully booked." How do I prove: - This is true without actually seeing the data that buses are fully booked - Yle is a trustworthy media outlet and what they are saying is true - The Finnish government isn't booking the buses and then telling the media that buses are booked For the record - I beli…

You can estimate the trustworthiness by analyzing the motives of the source. YLE is the Finnish equivalent of BBC. They have a record of being extremely trustworthy (this can be analysed retrospectively). Do they have a significant enough incentive to lie about this subject to throw that trust away? I see no such motive here, thus it's highly probable that the source is not intentionally lying. The same is true when it comes to the Finnish Government.

Re: Russians are trying to flee – data from Google Trends

#138

Post by jacquesm »

drakonka wrote: post #112
jacquesm wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Fair chance it would turn into a bloodbath. Better would a national strike. Equally difficult to organize but much harder to attack.

It did turn into a bloodbath at Euromaidan, but the people still came out, for months, and fought to change a corrupt regime that lied to them, as they have in many other countries in the past. Russians are not helpless. The main argument when this gets brought up seems to be that it's going to be hard and people will get hurt. Of course Putin isn't going to just throw up his hands and say "Ok guys, you win, I'm out"…

I don't think we've reached the point where the balance would tip. Yet. When you strike at the king you best not miss.

Re: Russians are trying to flee – data from Google Trends

#139

Post by hutzlibu »

therusskiy wrote: post #66
formvoltron wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We are afraid Putin will use nuclear weapons. We don't like that he came from a KGB background and that he seems to be friends with mafia. And that he likes to assassinate his rivals. If the Russian people are so much against Putin and on the side of the West, then why not arrange them to all leave their apartments at the same time, to walk into their central squares, and to start shaking their keys -- as the Czechs…

Unfortunately, not all Russians are against this war, many people don't even know that there's war, because as of now even saying "Stop War" is punishable by 3 years in Prison, distributing non official information about the war is punishable by 15 years in prison. All free media is banned as of now, newspapers closed down so their journalists don't go to prison. As for protest, if you think there's a lot of military…

"As long as he controls the military protests can only do so much. "

Most succesful revolutions happened, when the military joined the protests. The military is made up of common people after all.

And it is hard to see through the fog of war from the distance - but my impression is, that the russian army fights very hesistant and with low morale and badly organized. And they are not welcomed as liberators. No matter the propaganda, they will come home one day and share their stories.

I wish you all the best, that you can return one day and manage till then.

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