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Last Day of IKEA in Moscow

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121–130 of 323 posts

Re: Last Day of IKEA in Moscow

#121
post #85

Well, IKEA leaving is not a big issue - making furniture is easy and doesn't require high-tech. Thus, in one year or two nobody will even remember them. The industries that require technology, like electronics, biotechnology, healthcare - those will be permanently crippled, maybe completely eliminated.

Well, IKEA leaving is not a big issue - making furniture is easy and doesn't require high-tech.

Firstly, IKEA sells a lot more than furniture. You might be able to make a table at home, but that's one of the simplest things IKEA sells. Making a bowl, or a drinking glass, or a clock is significantly harder. Most people don't have the skills or the equipment.

Secondly, IKEA don't simply sell furniture. They sell furniture at scale. Making a table is pretty trivial, but making 25,000 tables is a lot harder. That requires a robust supply chain, logging companies, wood mills, furniture factories, machines to do the work, even if you're going back to the way it was done 50 years ago rather than the massively computerized way IKEA does it. It isn't really possible in a modern global economy if your local currency has collapsed.

And then you have the problem that people are used to IKEA stuff being the minimum acceptable level of quality. People buy it because it's cheap, it looks OK, and it lasts a few years. So now not only do you need to make 25,000 tables, but they need to be at least as good as what people could buy before. Otherwise they definitely will remember, and they won't be very happy about it.

Re: Last Day of IKEA in Moscow

#122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You may well be on to something here: that Russia is doing this as a warning to other states still under its control that if they flirt with the EU they will get turned into rubble. That would at least make some sense.

I thought this was the generally accepted rationale? What other explanations are there?

That Putin was given faulty intelligence that Ukraine would roll over and welcome the invasion because of their urge to return to the Russian fold.

Re: Last Day of IKEA in Moscow

#123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oh, my God, that 40 miles convoy. A crawling duck, but sadly no Warthogs in sight. It's a shame.

Yes, NATO donating some training and a couple of A-10s would be an interesting move. Obviously it is never going to be that simple.

True. But I'm afraid there are several issues and training is not a 2 day affair even if the other issues didn't exist

https://breakingdefense.com/2022/03/no-the-us-air-force-isnt...

Re: Last Day of IKEA in Moscow

#124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You don't get it. In the US you can watch something else, despite the oversized influence of media conglomerates.

Not so much... Russian media is getting blocked in some places in the west too. RT was blocked from YouTube and TV in the UK for example.

Agree with you on the fact that it was a questionable move.

But there is a big difference between excluding one source (which is directly and formally controlled by the Russian state).. and putting 15 year sentences on "publishing things that are not coming from the state news agency" (TAS)

BTW, and just FYI, if you want you can still read rt.com using 1.1.1.1 and 8.8.8.8

Re: Last Day of IKEA in Moscow

#125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't like getting into politics, but I believe the current situation is temporary, either will end up with a major political change in Russia or with a new cold war. Whichever the case for the local economy its like hitting the reset button.

Putin is 69 in a country where average age at death is 73. So the most likely scenario is that the status quo remains until he passes away. At which point there would be an opportunity for a clean reset in relations.

Putin is 69 in a country where average age at death is 73.

Having a team of private doctors, access to the best hospitals, access to Western medicine, even being able to leave Russia for medical care will probably mean he lives longer than average.

Re: Last Day of IKEA in Moscow

#126
post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why would they ever give them up? Unless they get so thoroughly routed in a war that they have no choice, it just won't happen because it is the end of sovereignty.

I feel like Russia breaking up into smaller states and then each state joining the eu on a long timescale once they meet various civic legal and economic targets is the kind of boring solution that will be fought for years and then happen once all other options have been exhausted. This war is really about Ukraine (even the Russian speaking parts, the anti-Nato, Anti-EU people in Ukraine) thinking they'd rather be pa…

I'd favour putting the eastern Russia parts under the umbrella of China if they weren't happy to go buddy buddy with Putin.

So I dunno, give it to Japan. Or Korea.

Gift Koningsberg to Ukraine.

Re: Last Day of IKEA in Moscow

#127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So now we are all of a sudden in the "might come to a halt" hypothetical. Ok. First of all, at least 40% of the planes are home-built, so aviation in Russia most certainly will not come to a halt. Then, how do you picture 500 planes getting returned and leasing companies instantly re-leasing them to other customers to keep their own business afloat? Even if that does happen, worst case, that will reduce Russian air t…

Home-built doesn’t mean “all parts produced in Russia”. And it just takes a handful of parts to be included in sanctions – especially with just-in-time manufacturing – for an entire production line to grind to a halt.

There are about half a dozen SSJs and MC-21s produced every month, let's check back in a couple of months from now, and see if those lines ground to a halt or doubled their production. I'm curious myself!

Re: Last Day of IKEA in Moscow

#128
post #85

Well, IKEA leaving is not a big issue - making furniture is easy and doesn't require high-tech. Thus, in one year or two nobody will even remember them. The industries that require technology, like electronics, biotechnology, healthcare - those will be permanently crippled, maybe completely eliminated.

Perhaps Russia can get electronics, biotechnology, and healthcare supplies where the US gets their's: China. Are Russia and China on good terms these days? Does Russia have anything to trade with China for yuan so they can buy those Chinese goods? I guess we'll find out. Or maybe the US tries to sanction China for freely trading with those evil Russians? Interesting times ahead…

China produces a lot of interesting stuff! India, by the way, too. They are big trade partner of Moscow. China gladly buys a lot of Russian oil and natural gas, for instance.

But China still can't produce certain high-end things. Say, a high-end server-class CPU is sort of problematic, event though ARM architecture allows to produce capable server CPUs. A powerful enough GPU is even harder to come by. I did not hear about high-capacity Chinese HDDs either. I suppose a lot of industries have such high-end goods that only 2-3 "Western" companies figured out how to produce. The embargo will hit hard in areas where such goods make a difference.

I only hope that the embargo will be lifted soon, because the current regime in Russia seems unsustainable.

Re: Last Day of IKEA in Moscow

#129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Provided they are vertically integrated and own the entire supply chain. Otherwise they will find that planes not flying in/out and container ships not delivering will make it hard to import anything at scale. Not that they could pay for goods anyway. Also I suspect China may use its new found leverage to flood the Russian market with their goods.

This whole thing makes me question the western/NATO motives of not pursuing de-escalation. Wouldn’t agreeing to Putin’s NATO non expansion terms be better than letting your economic competitor to basically establish monopoly on the entire Russian economic atmosphere?

That would imply that sovereign states don't get to decide who they're aligned with. As seen with Ukraine that in turn would make them first targets for an invasion.

Such a decision would be anything but de-escalation.

Re: Last Day of IKEA in Moscow

#130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Provided they are vertically integrated and own the entire supply chain. Otherwise they will find that planes not flying in/out and container ships not delivering will make it hard to import anything at scale. Not that they could pay for goods anyway. Also I suspect China may use its new found leverage to flood the Russian market with their goods.

This whole thing makes me question the western/NATO motives of not pursuing de-escalation. Wouldn’t agreeing to Putin’s NATO non expansion terms be better than letting your economic competitor to basically establish monopoly on the entire Russian economic atmosphere?

Supplication to a tyrant worked only to incite unprovoked invasion and war crimes. The west believed that integrating Russia through economy and trade would bring us together. It only revealed Russia is not yet ready and still believes everybody is out to get them like some traumatised recluse. Enough is enough, the west has awoken to the sad reality that Russia has not changed.

Also the Baltic sovereign nations remember very very very well what it was like under Russian oppression. They are not going back to that.

Finnish people remember burning their homes ahead of the advancing tank armies. We remember both wars and many of us have the memories in our blood.

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