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Last Day of IKEA in Moscow

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Re: Last Day of IKEA in Moscow

#111

Post by konart »

twelve40 wrote: post #95
_ph_ wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Container shipping is about to be reduced, Maersk just announced that they would only ship food to Russia going forward. Aviation in Russia might come mostly to a halt. About 500 airplanes are leased and have to be returned within a month to the leasing companies, the rest is running out of spare parts quickly.

So now we are all of a sudden in the "might come to a halt" hypothetical. Ok. First of all, at least 40% of the planes are home-built, so aviation in Russia most certainly will not come to a halt. Then, how do you picture 500 planes getting returned and leasing companies instantly re-leasing them to other customers to keep their own business afloat? Even if that does happen, worst case, that will reduce Russian air t…

> First of all, at least 40% of the planes are home-built, so aviation in Russia most certainly will not come to a halt.

Home-build - maybe, but not without parts from the US\EU, not to mention most of the production equipment is not Russian too and you have to maintain it or replace it at somepoint.

Oh and to build something you need materials - some are local, some will have to be replaced if possible.

This will be a huge problem, especially in a country with strong corruption tradition.

Re: Last Day of IKEA in Moscow

#112

Post by robin_reala »

twelve40 wrote: post #95
_ph_ wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Container shipping is about to be reduced, Maersk just announced that they would only ship food to Russia going forward. Aviation in Russia might come mostly to a halt. About 500 airplanes are leased and have to be returned within a month to the leasing companies, the rest is running out of spare parts quickly.

So now we are all of a sudden in the "might come to a halt" hypothetical. Ok. First of all, at least 40% of the planes are home-built, so aviation in Russia most certainly will not come to a halt. Then, how do you picture 500 planes getting returned and leasing companies instantly re-leasing them to other customers to keep their own business afloat? Even if that does happen, worst case, that will reduce Russian air t…

Home-built doesn’t mean “all parts produced in Russia”. And it just takes a handful of parts to be included in sanctions – especially with just-in-time manufacturing – for an entire production line to grind to a halt.

Re: Last Day of IKEA in Moscow

#113

Post by usr1106 »

_ph_ wrote: post #80
twelve40 wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

there are plenty of planes flying in and out, container ships delivering, and cross border payments happening, right now.

Container shipping is about to be reduced, Maersk just announced that they would only ship food to Russia going forward. Aviation in Russia might come mostly to a halt. About 500 airplanes are leased and have to be returned within a month to the leasing companies, the rest is running out of spare parts quickly.

> About 500 airplanes are leased and have to be returned within a month to the leasing companies,

Putin will make a law that returning airplanes to abroad is illegal. Foreigners have not been allowed to sell Russian shares already nearly a week. So nothing new there.

They cannot fly to most countries anyway, so the risk of getting them confiscated while landed somewhere is small.

Re: Last Day of IKEA in Moscow

#114

Post by twelve40 »

konart wrote: post #111
twelve40 wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So now we are all of a sudden in the "might come to a halt" hypothetical. Ok. First of all, at least 40% of the planes are home-built, so aviation in Russia most certainly will not come to a halt. Then, how do you picture 500 planes getting returned and leasing companies instantly re-leasing them to other customers to keep their own business afloat? Even if that does happen, worst case, that will reduce Russian air t…

> First of all, at least 40% of the planes are home-built, so aviation in Russia most certainly will not come to a halt. Home-build - maybe, but not without parts from the US\EU, not to mention most of the production equipment is not Russian too and you have to maintain it or replace it at somepoint. Oh and to build something you need materials - some are local, some will have to be replaced if possible. This will be…

Ok, at some point, sure, maybe.

Re: Last Day of IKEA in Moscow

#115

Post by ArnoVW »

irrational wrote: post #62
nuccy wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People from the west may say: well yes, our media is biased also. And that is true, but direction of this bias is different for each media outlet, so by watching something else you can find discrepancies and inconsistencies. While in Russia all tv, radio, newspapers are government controlled, so they put the same fake and propaganda which due to lack of anything else (all blocked) yields brain washing on a whole coun…

Yes, I’ll just watch something else. https://youtu.be/_fHfgU8oMSo

While it is true that journalism has suffered recently, this is a false equivalent.

It is true that in the US, if you want to live in a bubble, you can. However, that's a choice. There are many, many other information channels. And they are free to say whatever they want.

The real issue in the US, is the fact that so many people choose to live in a bubble. I bumped into this Vox piece the other day, "How American conservatives turned against the vaccine", that illustrates quite well how it really is destroying the US

  https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=sv0dQfRRrEQ

Re: Last Day of IKEA in Moscow

#116

Post by ZeroGravitas »

jacquesm wrote: post #109
ZeroGravitas wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I feel like Russia breaking up into smaller states and then each state joining the eu on a long timescale once they meet various civic legal and economic targets is the kind of boring solution that will be fought for years and then happen once all other options have been exhausted. This war is really about Ukraine (even the Russian speaking parts, the anti-Nato, Anti-EU people in Ukraine) thinking they'd rather be pa…

You may well be on to something here: that Russia is doing this as a warning to other states still under its control that if they flirt with the EU they will get turned into rubble. That would at least make some sense.

I thought this was the generally accepted rationale? What other explanations are there?

Re: Last Day of IKEA in Moscow

#117

Post by [deleted] »

usr1106 wrote: post #113
_ph_ wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Container shipping is about to be reduced, Maersk just announced that they would only ship food to Russia going forward. Aviation in Russia might come mostly to a halt. About 500 airplanes are leased and have to be returned within a month to the leasing companies, the rest is running out of spare parts quickly.

> About 500 airplanes are leased and have to be returned within a month to the leasing companies, Putin will make a law that returning airplanes to abroad is illegal. Foreigners have not been allowed to sell Russian shares already nearly a week. So nothing new there. They cannot fly to most countries anyway, so the risk of getting them confiscated while landed somewhere is small.

[deleted]

Re: Last Day of IKEA in Moscow

#118

Post by erikstarck »

jacquesm wrote: post #105
xvilka wrote: post #85

Well, IKEA leaving is not a big issue - making furniture is easy and doesn't require high-tech. Thus, in one year or two nobody will even remember them. The industries that require technology, like electronics, biotechnology, healthcare - those will be permanently crippled, maybe completely eliminated.

You'd be surprised. Having 'Western' furniture, clothing and vehicles in the Eastern European countries was a requirement to be seen as successful in life. Of course this is nonsense but a lot of people bought into it and it will take a long time to let go of that. But: whatever Ikea sold they sold and it will likely continue to work for a long time. Vehicles are going to be breaking down without a steady source of s…

Not to mention Windows updates.

Re: Last Day of IKEA in Moscow

#119

Post by jacquesm »

erikstarck wrote: post #118
jacquesm wrote: post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You'd be surprised. Having 'Western' furniture, clothing and vehicles in the Eastern European countries was a requirement to be seen as successful in life. Of course this is nonsense but a lot of people bought into it and it will take a long time to let go of that. But: whatever Ikea sold they sold and it will likely continue to work for a long time. Vehicles are going to be breaking down without a steady source of s…

Not to mention Windows updates.

Never even thought of that, but good point.

Russian business would be crippled overnight, and probably plenty of lower government too.

Re: Last Day of IKEA in Moscow

#120

Post by aftergibson »

oezi wrote: post #13
k12sosse wrote: post #2

These photos kind of perfectly sum up just how bizarre the situation is.

Sadly, it seems more russians are concerned about not getting a BILLY than standing up to Putin.

Just like when the west stood up to the US Government and stopped the Iraq war? It's easy to point the finger when you're far from the reality.
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