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Fire extinguished at Ukraine nuclear power plant, Europe's largest

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Re: Fire extinguished at Ukraine nuclear power plant, Europe's largest

#851

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My thinking has been that we need smaller decentralized nuclear plants, that can fail without it being cathastrofic, instead of huge centralized plants that "can't fail".

That only makes for more, albeit smaller problems. Each of these is a potential dirty bomb.

Right. It makes the size of the problem more transparent, by amortizing the accidents over time.

We'd actually have some accidents sometimes. Either we'll get good at handling it, or we will give up on nuclear. Better than pooling all the risk, lowering the probability, but keeping the same expected destruction. With the centralized approach it's too easy to act like there's zero risk.

Re: Fire extinguished at Ukraine nuclear power plant, Europe's largest

#852
post #552
post #376

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They're easy to shut down, but when the reactor is first turned off the core is full of unstable isotopes that are byproducts of the fission reaction. Those isotopes continue decaying even with the reactor "off" until the become stable, and they put out enough heat to cause a meltdown on their own. This means the reactor needs active cooling for a couple of weeks until it reaches a safe state. That's what happened at…

I did not know about that aspect of nuclear plants and in my non-expert view it would be a major point against nuclear plants in the discussion how to solve climate change (at least until we learn how to secure them in case of a war). Am I wrong? EDIT: I would also like to ask if you can recommend some source where curious layman with no knowledge of physics could learn a bit more about this.

> I did not know about that aspect of nuclear plants and in my non-expert view it would be a major point against nuclear plants in the discussion how to solve climate change

It's a reasonable criticism to make, but I think it tends to be a bit overblown. Modern reactors have redundant layers of systems to prevent such a disaster from occurring. In the ~60 year history of nuclear reactors Fukashima is the only time this type of failure has happened (Three Mile Island and Chernobyl were very different), and even then it was due to a cascading series of problems:

* In hindsight it was a really poor idea to locate a nuclear plant by the ocean in a region known for strong earthquakes and tsunamis.

* The backup generators flooded because they were located in the basements, another poor decision for an area at risk of tsunamis.

* TEPCO had additional generators and batteries on site within 6 hours of the earthquake, which was in time to prevent a meltdown, but they were unable to connect them to the plant's electrical system (I don't recall the details of why).

It's also worth mentioning that this is only a problem with large reactors. Smaller designs like those used in ships and submarines still have decay heat, but the reactor core is physically smaller so that it doesn't contain enough isotopes to cause a meltdown. Many nuclear advocates believe that we should be building more nuclear plants with smaller reactors for this reason as well as smaller reactors being easier to operate without getting into a dangerous state.

As far as reading, I highly recommend Atomic Accidents by James Mahaffey [0]. It's very well written, aimed at a total layman, and covers basically everything that has gone wrong since we as a species started seriously messing with nuclear materials in the 19th century.

[0]: https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1605986801

Re: Fire extinguished at Ukraine nuclear power plant, Europe's largest

#853
post #756

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I know I'm steelmanning like a crazy person right now, but a valid reason for Russia to seize those power plants might be to prevent Ukrainians from using them as huge dirty bombs in a desperate last strike.

Why would they dirty bomb their own land? If anything it's a reason to have already taken some materials offsite to dirty bomb Moscow later. Or for the invaders to threaten dirty bombing if they're about to be driven away (like they're already doing with their nuclear arsenal).

In this scenario, I imagined that they would have totally lost the country and just wanted to do as much damage as possible.

But yeah, it was a stupid theory, too bad I cannot delete it anymore. At least it triggered better theories in this thread, though.

Re: Fire extinguished at Ukraine nuclear power plant, Europe's largest

#854
Risking to be heavily downvoted… but does nobody question the story line at all?

It makes no sense for Russia to start shooting at a useless office building. If they wanted, they’d drop a few bombs on the critical infrastructure and that’s it.

Maybe the rumors Ukrainian forces evolved them into an attack and planted the fire has some substance? This news is the perfect headline to further lure in the west to help, without any actually critical damage to your own land.

Re: Fire extinguished at Ukraine nuclear power plant, Europe's largest

#855

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Additionally there is the whole thing about the dangers of an accident Sure, let's talk about that. - As a species, we've been running hundreds of nuclear reactors (440 currently) for a while now. - Their cumulative track record is (very roughly) "one Chernobyl every 25 years." - The cost of a Chernobyl-scale incident is that it renders a region uninhabitable and kills several hundred people. - With plants getting sa…

I have to say you lost me at: > The cost of a Chernobyl-scale incident is that it renders a region uninhabitable and kills several hundred people. There are quite a few interesting numbers regarding Chernobyl: 31 deaths, for example, is an official figure. But the credits for the TV series also state that estimates of deaths would vary between 4,000 and 93,000 victims. A bit more about the numbers and some additional…

This is indeed quite worse than the parent suggested, and I agree with your numbers.

I am curious, though, to how many people die due to the normal, continued operation of coal plants (both from mining and from the plant's actual operation). Is that something we can quantify with a reasonable degree of accuracy (like to a rough order of magnitude)?

Because even if we have a Chernobyl every 25 years that kills 150k people and gives another million some sort of disability, we have to acknowledge that operating coal plants -- as a "normal" part of their operation -- kills people too. I don't know if they are better or worse than the "amortized" 6k/year killed by nuclear in our estimate here. But it's certainly not zero.

And beyond that, burning fossil fuels destroys ecosystems, causes extinction of various animal species, and, if we do not arrest the affects of climate change, will kill millions of people due to its various effects. (Arguably, this has already killed lots of people during extreme weather events linked to climate change.) Maybe 150k people dead every 25 years in a nuclear disaster is, unfortunately, a "bargain" in comparison.

If we could scale up renewables at the same rate we could scale up nuclear, then it'd be a no-brainer: choose the former. But it's not clear that we can meet our energy needs with renewables today, even if there was a giant, global push to go fully renewable on a short time scale. Maybe it's better to risk nuclear power incidents in the medium term than continue to vomit fossil fuel byproducts into the atmosphere. But of course the general public will never make this kind of decision rationally; ultimately most of these are political decisions.

Re: Fire extinguished at Ukraine nuclear power plant, Europe's largest

#856
post #631

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That was by far the most disappointing US election. Electing a bad president is clearly a risk of democracy, but re-electing a bad president, that's incomprehensible. And yet that was the only presidential election in decades where the Republican candidate got the majority of the votes.

> And yet that was the only presidential election in decades where the Republican candidate got the majority of the votes. That election was 2004 of course. Reagan got 58.8% in 1984, so two decades prior (decades as you noted). Obama got 52.9% in 2008. And prior to that for a Democrat? More than two decades prior, wherein Jimmy Carter barely scratched out a majority popular vote at 50.08% in 1976. Lyndon Johnson of c…

I think parent actually meant plurality, at least that’s how I read it.

However these numbers are quite interesting. Some people attribute Nixon’s second election to his promise of withdrawing from Vietnam and one can easily blame the war for the problematic 1968 election for the democrats. LBJ was probably even gonna be the first sitting president to loose in a primary before he announced his non-bid.

I’m guessing the 1964 for election he was pretty much just riding the popularity of the recently assassinated John F. Kennedy. (Plus the war hadn’t escalated at this point).

Re: Fire extinguished at Ukraine nuclear power plant, Europe's largest

#857
post #780
post #718

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> "it will still be a small disaster compared to all the causalities that already" Maybe I'm missing something regarding this specific reactor but how is a war that will eventually (hopefully) be over worse than a nuclear fallout that would make large areas unlivable for thousands of years and affect multiple countries and also killing a lot of people.

> make large areas unlivable for thousands of years I think you are over-estimating the cost of this. I contest the use of 'large'. The 30km radius exclusion zone is nothing compared to the surface occupied by deserts, ice floe, or whatever of the many others existing unhinabitable places. > and affect multiple countries and also killing a lot of people. Because the war has been doing that already, at a even larger s…

> The 30km radius exclusion zone is nothing compared to the surface occupied by deserts, ice floe, or whatever of the many others existing unhinabitable places.

Land location isn't fungible, though. That 30km radius exclusion zone is (was?) much more valuable land than some random patch of desert or ice. Being near other settled land, and having access to infrastructure, food, etc. is important. Taking valuable land like that and making it uninhabitable is much worse than it just being a random patch of sand in the middle of some desert somewhere, or a big piece of ice floating in an arctic region.

Re: Fire extinguished at Ukraine nuclear power plant, Europe's largest

#858
post #775

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the Ukrainians push the Russians back to Russia then that is a de-escalation. The Ukrainians are not the aggressors here. I see no reason Ukraine would cross their own borders. If Putin decides to escalate to nukes as a final act of failure then the de-escalation would be the complete annihilation of Russia as a country. In minutes. The idea of getting away with a tactical nuke strike is insane.

> I see no reason Ukraine would cross their own borders to strengthen their negotiation position "We give you back X, you give back Mariupol" > complete annihilation of Russia as a country you think US would die for some village in Ukraine? They were plenty of US politicians and generals which were against nuclear umbrella for West Germany.

None of what you are describing makes sense.

If the Ukrainians can push Russians back why wouldn’t they do the same everywhere? Crossing the border becomes an act of aggression, only Russia has acted aggressively here. Everyone else is trying to avoid conflict.

If Russia detonates a nuke in Europe the entire country will be obliterated immediately.

Re: Fire extinguished at Ukraine nuclear power plant, Europe's largest

#859

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Democratic" is used as a thought-terminating cliche. Just a few years ago Ukraine had an insurrection because of their election results and overturned the election to install a new leader. It's a corrupt kleptocratic state very similar to Russia, it's just more of the money comes from American interests than in Russia, and that upsets the Russian kleptocrats who don't want American influence in Ukraine. Similarly, a…

That's objectively and demonstrably false. The revolution (not an insurrection) didn't happen because of election results (the election was in 2010, the revolution started at the end of 2013 and continued into 2014). It started because the president decided to halt the integration of Ukraine with the EU and was peaceful until the government had decided to escalate. And if you're talking about the Orange Revolution fr…

You’re going to have to explain the difference between an insurrection and a revolution to me.

Re: Fire extinguished at Ukraine nuclear power plant, Europe's largest

#860

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That may be true for the number of actual plants we have, but public sentiment against nuclear is why we don't have 10, even 100 times as many plants as we do now. If you start shifting decimal points two positions to the right, and diminishing the distance between plants, between plants and critical habitat, by an order of magnitude (separation is square root of density per area), those numbers aren't quite as rosy.…

Earth is _very_ big, safety numbers are given per kWh, waste heat is insignificant compared to total insolation and all other generation methods generate the same amount of waste heat (that’s the law). Solar wind and hydro kind of cheat with the accounting though.

These are the same sort of average calculations that are the reason the general public don't understand why 1.5ºC is going to be a shitshow. Peaks and troughs and local maxima are what humans will notice, and the averages lie a great deal.

I was more talking about the distance between plants as a function of the odds of encountering the Precautionary Principle with regards to radiation events, but heat pollution is something that I've already seen happen in a town near where I grew up, where an artificial lake intended as a cooling pond ended up being unfit for recreation due to encephalitis-inducing microbes that enjoyed the heat of the cooling system.

Heat pollution at the plant can be problematic depending on where the plant is and what cooling system you use. On the consumption end it exponentially contributes to the heat island effect. Not a huge exponent, but an exponent nonetheless. Doubling power consumption more than doubles heat pump power budgets, and pushes nearby systems that previously relied on passive cooling into requiring active cooling, which pushes more systems into active cooling, on and on.

I think the only time I ever really disagreed with George Carlin was his bit about how arrogant humans are to think that we can possibly ever do enough to alter the climate. Turns out we can. There are just so many of us doing our own little game of externalities. I wonder if he were alive today what he'd have to say about it.

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