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Russian gas flows via Yamal pipeline to Germany halt, bids remain

reuters.com

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Re: Russian gas flows via Yamal pipeline to Germany halt, bids remain

#81

Post by InitialLastName »

gunfighthacksaw wrote: post #76
InitialLastName wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's an argument here that this war is a step in the transition from wars over "oil" (read: energy supply) to wars over water. There's a little bit of both here, and it's made the war difficult for outsiders to read.

Not sure if it’s a water war the way I would consider it but you may be right. Freshwater is typically the object of hypothetical water wars, and in this case Russia wants warm (salt) water for naval power projection. This is probably more of a coastline/harbour war.

As I understand it, there has also been some conflict over the water supply to Crimea, which comes in by aqueduct over the isthmus towards Ukraine in the north (hence Russia's focus on conquering the area inland from that border).

Re: Russian gas flows via Yamal pipeline to Germany halt, bids remain

#82

Post by dekhn »

skadamat wrote: post #12

I never knew until recently how tied up Russia's oil strategy was to their military / political thinking. If others are interested, this video has a great overview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=If61baWF4GE

There's a couple great books, The Prize and The Quest, by Daniel Yergin, who is an energy expert. It greatly clarifies the current situation.

Update: I just saw he's published a newer book as well, https://www.amazon.com/New-Map-Energy-Climate-Nations/dp/159... "The New Map: Energy, Climate, and the Clash of Nations" which I haven't read, but probably just updates the story as it evolved over the past 10 years.

Re: Russian gas flows via Yamal pipeline to Germany halt, bids remain

#83

Post by genousti »

greendesk wrote: post #42
pftburger wrote: post #38

Looking at the data, I am wondering why the invasion is triggered now, as reserves are about to start being refilled, instead of earlier. From the graph ( https://agsi.gie.eu/#/graphs/DE ) it seems like the storage starts being refilled as the weather warms near the end of march. IE Putin looses some bargaining power. What am I missing?

Putin’s and his inner circle’s plan was that it will take 1-4 days to take Kiev and two weeks to take most of Ukraine. Minimal resistance was expected. The window of opportunity with this expectation is from mid-December until end of February. They picked a date with this plan.

They dont want kiev. That is too big and too hard to defend. They want the east and that is what they will ask during negotiations. Only in netflix war lasts four days. America needed 18 days to do some stuff in iraq

Re: Russian gas flows via Yamal pipeline to Germany halt, bids remain

#84

Post by tobi_spaceship »

okl wrote: post #67
tartoran wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Gas and oil is all they have to trade and they have a lot of it.

They also have significant market share exporting certain commodities like Nickel, Palladium &c. -- but not close to gas/oil, true. Since new investment into fossil fuel projects will go to nearly zero from here (and old equipment becomes defunct unless it is replaced), expect there gas/oil exports to decline significantly in the next years/decades. Putin didn't only mess up Ukraine now, he also wrecked his own count…

Same could be said for Biden.

Re: Russian gas flows via Yamal pipeline to Germany halt, bids remain

#85

Post by HellDunkel »

ed_balls wrote: post #75

Without natural resources Russia GDP would be lower than Polish. I think the whole reason for this war is the green transformation of the world. Military dictatorship played the wrong game and didn't mange to reform the country (it seems to be a case for all countries run by military). This is Proxy war with US/Nato to get a trade deal in exchange for balancing China with military power (last card they've got). Franc…

North stream 2 was in reach. If this is what they wanted why start this proxy war?

Re: Russian gas flows via Yamal pipeline to Germany halt, bids remain

#86

Post by haughty »

jcranmer wrote: post #40
haughty wrote: post #29

What i didn't realize until very recently was that natural gas can be liquefied and sold on an open market like a barrel of oil. With that in mind, these pipelines are not as critical. Additionally, pipelines operate by contracts which offer very generous discounts years in advance; Liquefied gas, on the other hand, is a commodity and is sold at market prices. Seems logical to assume that Russian gas will still be so…

While natural gas can be liquefied, the infrastructure for LNG is much less mature than for gas pipelines. You still need to have the LNG terminals to be able to import the gas (and also at the export terminals as well). Historically, LNG import terminals are concentrated in East Asia, which is generally too far away from major gas producers for a pipeline to be worthwhile to build but the energy consumption was high…

Thanks, this explains a lot; Do you think it's reasonable to assume that due to pipeline closures and Russian isolation, gas prices will keep rising? I'm reading up on this selfishly - as i purchased some natural gas stocks like $OVV and $AR as the conflict was unwinding. Is LNG route open for Russia? Seems like it's their only option at this point. And Pipelines are simply not safe as it should be easy to sabotage them for the enemy combatants. I also noticed that in EU there are rumblings about legislation that would force Gas companies to be taxed at a higher rate to continue to pave the way for green energy. Not sure what are the prospects of this in the US.

Re: Russian gas flows via Yamal pipeline to Germany halt, bids remain

#87

Post by PartiallyTyped »

HellDunkel wrote: post #85
ed_balls wrote: post #75

Without natural resources Russia GDP would be lower than Polish. I think the whole reason for this war is the green transformation of the world. Military dictatorship played the wrong game and didn't mange to reform the country (it seems to be a case for all countries run by military). This is Proxy war with US/Nato to get a trade deal in exchange for balancing China with military power (last card they've got). Franc…

North stream 2 was in reach. If this is what they wanted why start this proxy war?

Furthermore, gas is considered "Green" by EU and would have provided a steady source of income to Russia [1-2].

[1] https://www.dw.com/en/european-commission-declares-nuclear-a...

[2] https://time.com/6139049/europe-natural-gas-green-energy

Re: Russian gas flows via Yamal pipeline to Germany halt, bids remain

#88

Post by ls612 »

csee wrote: post #80
ls612 wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Makes you wonder if one side or the other will “accidentally” damage those pipelines. Like obviously they can’t overtly do it but you know, stuff gets damaged every day in combat zones… it would certainly immensely hurt Russia’s strategic position to have their gas exports cut off.

Why would Russia damage it? They can just shut it off voluntarily on their side and use that for leverage.

My implication was that Ukraine would damage it (but not officially to avoid pissing people off).

Re: Russian gas flows via Yamal pipeline to Germany halt, bids remain

#89

Post by littlecranky67 »

rightbyte wrote: post #78
chess_buster wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There will be no blackout due to gas issues. Power generation from gas is not a problem. Heat generation from gas could become one though. Luckily Germany will likely mandate a switch to electricity driven heatpumps for all buildings soon.

Direct electricity radiators in the short term will be used instead of gas to heat, so ye, there might be blackouts.

Not even that. I am a German myself, and I can tell our heating habbits are on a luxurious level. It is very common in Germany to heat the full house/appartment 24/7 to a comfy level just so you can walk around in light/comfy closes. It is common to not wear thick closes at home and especially not in bed etc. Gas is also used for the water boiler, and it is considered "standard" to shower every day.

Now, if I go back to the generation of my grandparents and to some extend even my parents when they were in their childhood, that was unheard of. You would only heat the main living room during cold winters, and the family would gather. For sleeping you wore pyjamas plus socks etc, and you took a tin with hot potatoes to bed. Showering was not a thing, you would wash daily and maybe bathing on Sundays.

Now that annoys me a little about the whole "Germany needs gas from Russia urgently!" narrative. If you cut out gas for heating/boiling (not electricity), not a single german will die this winter, or next winter. We will lose a lot of comfort, and might have to change our habbits, but we do not have siberian grade winters where having no heating means having to freeze to death.

Re: Russian gas flows via Yamal pipeline to Germany halt, bids remain

#90

Post by mderazon »

InitialLastName wrote: post #70
mderazon wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

More convinced that the only thing stopping wars will be energy abundance not reliant on fossil fuels. Countries will still fight over natural resources, but probably less

There's an argument here that this war is a step in the transition from wars over "oil" (read: energy supply) to wars over water. There's a little bit of both here, and it's made the war difficult for outsiders to read.

With enough energy and access to sea water you can desalinate I guess
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