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Ask HN: Do you think nuclear armageddon is plausible?

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Re: Ask HN: Do you think nuclear armageddon is plausible?

#31

Post by machineleaning »

Zworyking wrote: post #21

I think it's not a matter of if, but when. All it takes is one deranged individual. The only way to disarm the world of nukes is to unite under a rational, evidence and incentives based, benevolent world government. There's literally no other way to get rid of nukes if you've studied it. Even if every nation disarms they all live under the threat of another building them in secret. As soon as one of them suspects as…

FWIW I am not familiar with any protocol that allows one deranged person to launch nukes. I think the minimum # of people required is 3? In the US it's 4, IIRC (edit - could be 3 also)

Re: Ask HN: Do you think nuclear armageddon is plausible?

#32

Post by ravenstine »

Yes, because humans are apes.

We grow up in a world where are lead to believe that our leaders are leading because they are smarter than we are and that they actually have a plan for everything.

While not entirely untrue, our leaders (if you can call them that) are nevertheless dumb apes like you and me.

Will the dumb apes start nuclear armageddon? Improbable, so far. But implausible? Not completely.

Re: Ask HN: Do you think nuclear armageddon is plausible?

#33

Post by jaywalk »

trixie_ wrote: post #23

Paranoid, isolated man with a big red button in front of him that can take out every major city in the world.. It can absolutely happen. The subs are armed and ready. Literally the push of a button. The fact it hasn’t happened yet is something to be thankful for everyday.

It's much more involved than "literally the push of a button."

Re: Ask HN: Do you think nuclear armageddon is plausible?

#34

Post by tspike »

CyanLite4 wrote: post #7

To paraphrase a famous comedian… It’s not anything we need to plan for because we’ll never have known if it happened.

This is a common misconception. I highly recommend having a read through the book "Nuclear War Survival Skills" by Kearny. It's an older book more focused on the Cold War, but still highly relevant today. It systematically dispels this kind of myth. You can find PDF copies online or pick up a used copy cheap.

Re: Ask HN: Do you think nuclear armageddon is plausible?

#35

Post by newacc9 »

Nuclear war is survivable for the elite in their underground bunkers, and they're the ones who get to decide if it happens. People live in Hiroshima now, its not like everything turns into Chernobyl. If you survive the initial blast you have to stay inside for a couple of weeks until the radiation deteriorates. But then you'll probably starve unless you're surrounded by preppers like in Utah. I think its going to happen but not for a few years.

https://irp.fas.org/offdocs/pdd60.htm

Re: Ask HN: Do you think nuclear armageddon is plausible?

#36

Post by maratc »

2bitencryption wrote: post #12

Here's my fear, which I really really hope someone can allay. I just don't see an "off ramp" for Putin right now. The cost he's incurred is HUGE and there's really no way out of this for him. He's already threatened a nuclear response to any country that opposes his attempt, in so many words. I'm afraid he will take advantage of one of his new hyper-glide entry nukes. My fear is not that he will launch ALL nukes, jus…

The real fear for you should be the one where Putin’s regime is toppled, and Russia disintegrates into a series of mini states, all of them with nuclear capabilities.

Re: Ask HN: Do you think nuclear armageddon is plausible?

#37

Post by acgourley »

machineleaning wrote: post #31
Zworyking wrote: post #21

I think it's not a matter of if, but when. All it takes is one deranged individual. The only way to disarm the world of nukes is to unite under a rational, evidence and incentives based, benevolent world government. There's literally no other way to get rid of nukes if you've studied it. Even if every nation disarms they all live under the threat of another building them in secret. As soon as one of them suspects as…

FWIW I am not familiar with any protocol that allows one deranged person to launch nukes. I think the minimum # of people required is 3? In the US it's 4, IIRC (edit - could be 3 also)

For a history of how it has in fact often been a single person, and may still be, see: https://www.amazon.com/Doomsday-Machine-Confessions-Nuclear-...

Re: Ask HN: Do you think nuclear armageddon is plausible?

#38

Post by black_puppydog »

maxharris wrote: post #2

Nuclear armageddon almost happened multiple times in the past. To think it can’t happen is a necessary step in ensuring that it does.

Huh? The inversion (assuming it can happen) doesn't protect you... so I wouldn't call it "necessary".

Edit

Otherwise you end up with a nice contradiction: "how could this happen?! I was assuming it could happen, so it really shouldn't have!

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