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Panasonic to begin mass producing new 4680 Tesla battery by March 2024

reuters.com

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Re: Panasonic to begin mass producing new 4680 Tesla battery by March 2024

#61

Post by packetlost »

Lascaille wrote: post #35
mrfusion wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Older cars can work great but I just lose confidence in taking longer trips. If it’s statistically going to die soon I feel like there’s a large risk of getting stranded somewhere.

>If it’s statistically going to die soon I feel like there’s a large risk of getting stranded somewhere. If you're in North America are you really going to be 'stranded' or just footing the cost of a one-way rental and waiting for the check from the junkyard which will almost certainly cover it?

you grossly underestimate the cost of car rentals and overestimate the value of a scrap metal car.

Re: Panasonic to begin mass producing new 4680 Tesla battery by March 2024

#62

Post by nightski »

megaman821 wrote: post #59
nightski wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Does this assume the electricity is emission free? Because where I live less than 40% of our electricity is from renewables (even those aren't completely 0 carbon impact, as they have to produce panels/wind mills/etc...). The rest is from oil & gas plants. I understand you are comparing driving an ICE vehicle vs. production of an electric one. But it seems a little misleading to ignore the co2 impact of driving the e…

I would guess the more you extend the comparison the worse it gets for combustion cars. Most people get their electricity from natural gas plants delivered through a pipeline, and there is a future prospect to shift this to more renewables. Oil is pumped and delivered to a refinery, then the gas is put on a truck, and delivered to a gas station. All these things require either electricity or gas to run.

I wasn't suggesting to extend the comparison. I was saying that for the comparison done they were ignoring the environmental impact of driving the EV.

Obviously EV comes out on top over a very long period of time. I'm just suggesting that period of time is longer than suggested by the parent.

Personally I'd love to buy an EV but in our climate battery life is reduced by 30%, renewables are a low portion of our electricity, EVs cost a lot more than ICE vehicles, and many aren't built to drive in snowy/icy conditions. I've been patiently waiting for these variables to change before my next car purchase - driving my current ICE into the ground.

Re: Panasonic to begin mass producing new 4680 Tesla battery by March 2024

#63

Post by jakswa »

gameswithgo wrote: post #27
hwillis wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just for the record- it only takes about 21k miles of driving (a year or two for most people) to release as much CO2 as the production of the battery for a long range Tesla Model 3. The standard range Model 3 comes in just under 16k miles. It seems to me like most people expect more. Also, I don't think EV prices have really changed that much. Chip shortages haven't really affected it. High gas prices and inflation a…

For the co2 equivalency analysis you really need to compare the total GHG byproduct of the production of each entire car and their fuels. The EV has a battery which is energy intensive to produce, but some of that would also be required to build and engine/transmission etc. and extracting oil and turning it into gasoline and delivering it has GHG byproducts, as well as producing and delivering electricity.

Union of Concerned Scientists still did the most in-depth analysis I've seen, and they agree with the ~6mo-18mo time period to offset the more-intensive manufacturing. And it's so old now that I think you can assume the transition to cleaner grids has progressed further in some cases.

https://www.ucsusa.org/resources/cleaner-cars-cradle-grave

Re: Panasonic to begin mass producing new 4680 Tesla battery by March 2024

#64

Post by Tempest1981 »

Gravityloss wrote: post #39
Goz3rr wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The actual arrangement of cylindrical cells is staggered: https://cdn.motor1.com/images/mgl/XkV66/s1/tesla-model-y-468...

Exactly. Sandy Munro has an excellent video with multiple different battery packs torn down and compared: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4JiDZVO9NdM You can see that the cooling channels in the Tesla pack are these hollow undulating aluminum shapes. Can imagine they're not very cheap. Also the Tesla packs are filled with some kind of bonding foam, making repairs near impossible.

> bonding foam

Is that maybe to reduce the spread of fire? I know Tesla put a lot of work into that. Others too, I hope.

Re: Panasonic to begin mass producing new 4680 Tesla battery by March 2024

#65

Post by oblio »

toomuchtodo wrote: post #56
Lascaille wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>If it’s statistically going to die soon I feel like there’s a large risk of getting stranded somewhere. If you're in North America are you really going to be 'stranded' or just footing the cost of a one-way rental and waiting for the check from the junkyard which will almost certainly cover it?

You could be waiting for hours or overnight on the side of the US interstate (possibly in below freezin/0F temps) for a tow truck that may or may not show up. The salvage check may or may not cover the tow and replacement temporary transportation. A majority of Americans can't come up with $1000 for an emergency, which is somewhat close to the cost of a one way rental at the moment.

True, but statistically the average HN user with a beat up car won't be a McDonald's employee buying the only car they can afford, but more likely someone working in tech that's aiming for FIRE or whatever they're calling it and saving a ton of money.

Highly unlikely the average HNer can't come up with $1000 for an emergency (nota bene: for sure some can't, that why I didn't say "every HNer").

Re: Panasonic to begin mass producing new 4680 Tesla battery by March 2024

#66

Post by oblio »

ajross wrote: post #42
imwillofficial wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

“ But that's not representative.” Except that it is.

It's absolutely not. Twenty years isn't remotely near the median road lifespan[1] for any vehicle. You see a lot of 20 year old Corollas because c. 2002 the Corolla was the most popular car in the world. I'm sure it's more durable than many other vehicles, but it's not magic. [1] Let me specify "passenger vehicles" and "US roads" lest someone jump in to point out that box trucks last longer or that cars get shipped t…

The thing is, even in the US this is changing:

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/28/cars-on-american-roads-keep-...

> The average age of a car on U.S. roads rose to 12.1 years in 2021, according to IHS Markit. The average age had been 11.9 years in 2020. In 2002, the average age was 9.6 years.

And in most of the rest of the world, it's even longer, as the vast majority of the rest of the world is poorer.

Re: Panasonic to begin mass producing new 4680 Tesla battery by March 2024

#67

Post by [deleted] »

oblio wrote: post #65
toomuchtodo wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You could be waiting for hours or overnight on the side of the US interstate (possibly in below freezin/0F temps) for a tow truck that may or may not show up. The salvage check may or may not cover the tow and replacement temporary transportation. A majority of Americans can't come up with $1000 for an emergency, which is somewhat close to the cost of a one way rental at the moment.

True, but statistically the average HN user with a beat up car won't be a McDonald's employee buying the only car they can afford, but more likely someone working in tech that's aiming for FIRE or whatever they're calling it and saving a ton of money. Highly unlikely the average HNer can't come up with $1000 for an emergency (nota bene: for sure some can't, that why I didn't say "every HNer").

[deleted]

Re: Panasonic to begin mass producing new 4680 Tesla battery by March 2024

#68

Post by fuzzer37 »

dhosek wrote: post #49
mrfusion wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’ve thought my next vehicle would be an EV since 1998. But next time for sure.

With our last purchase, we went half-way and got the plug-in hybrid Chrysler Pacifica minivan (which replaced a Prius which replaced a Mazda 6 so it's been a continuous evolution). It's likely that the next car will be a full-on EV. Assuming you have an acceptable parking/charging solution available, a plug-in hybrid is a good option. The Chrysler uses gas more often in the winter to run the heater but even before th…

I'm curious if you've run into any issues (Or worried about) cycling gas that long. I know that gas can "go bad" over the span of 6 months - 1 year. Do you ever intentionally run the gas, just so you can burn some and put new in?

Re: Panasonic to begin mass producing new 4680 Tesla battery by March 2024

#69

Post by oblio »

Somewhat off-topic, but maybe someone knows.

There's one thing that worries me about EVs: local pollution.

So, ICE cars release CO2 + they release local pollutants (NO, CO, etc), particulate matter, that kind of thing.

EVs obviously don't directly release CO2 nor do they release those local pollutants.

However, EVs are on average much heavier (probably 200-400kgs heavier), which means that they probably need bigger tires and they wear them out faster. They probably also wear roads faster.

For local pollution, is the extra tire & road wear and tear equal or worse to the ICE tire & road wear and tear + exhaust gases?

Does anyone know any studies about this?

Re: Panasonic to begin mass producing new 4680 Tesla battery by March 2024

#70

Post by imwillofficial »

oblio wrote: post #66
ajross wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's absolutely not. Twenty years isn't remotely near the median road lifespan[1] for any vehicle. You see a lot of 20 year old Corollas because c. 2002 the Corolla was the most popular car in the world. I'm sure it's more durable than many other vehicles, but it's not magic. [1] Let me specify "passenger vehicles" and "US roads" lest someone jump in to point out that box trucks last longer or that cars get shipped t…

The thing is, even in the US this is changing: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/28/cars-on-american-roads-keep-... > The average age of a car on U.S. roads rose to 12.1 years in 2021, according to IHS Markit. The average age had been 11.9 years in 2020. In 2002, the average age was 9.6 years. And in most of the rest of the world, it's even longer, as the vast majority of the rest of the world is poorer.

Bingo. The US is not the world.
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