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Germany mulls extending nuclear plants' life-span

reuters.com

121–130 of 170 posts

Re: Germany mulls extending nuclear plants' life-span

#121
post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They literally ignored all of the guidance on safely operating a nuclear reactor and many who told them so. Fukushima was a tragedy, but it also would not have passed inspection in the US or Europe due to blatant disregard for safeguards. https://carnegieendowment.org/2012/03/06/why-fukushima-was-p... here is an unbiased source on this and how it was utterly preventable.

The problem is that people no longer believe that there is no risk of a similar document being written in the future, similarly saying that it would have been preventable, only bearing the name of their home town.

That’s fair and understandable. If you look at the safety claims of the past as equivalent to the claims of today it makes sense to be mistrustful. I think it’s fairly tragic and misguided to conclude that, though. The new plants are actually quite different (at least that’s what it appears; I’m not a nuclear engineer, so I’m trusting what seem like qualified nuclear engineers to describe the new systems).

The big difference is the need for active cooling in both Fukushima and Chernobyl. The new ones don’t need that.

I know that sounds like the same thing as “an rbmk reactor cannot explode”, but that’s very dismissive of decades of work since then by people completely unrelated to those responsible for past disasters. All major nuclear disasters or near disasters like three mile island were from old systems which used active cooling.

The energy output of nuclear is unmatched, its safer than it used to be, and I’m pretty sure most of the expense comes from red tape. I think its good to have learned some hubris from past mistakes, but abandoning that technology would be like abandoning spaceflight. The star trek motto is not “to responsibly stay where we already are.”

When it comes down to the raw physics, I don’t see how most renewables can compete. It seems like the cost effectiveness is being distorted by subsidies for renewables and red tape for nuclear. If renewables actually are cost competitive now or close too it and can legitimately be used without requiring energy rationing and causing grid problems, thats great, but I don’t really see how that’s possible.

At the end of the day I don’t really care whats generating power, I just think it’s foolish to not try to have as much as possible, and I don’t see how something as energy dense as nuclear wouldn’t be massively beneficial.

Re: Germany mulls extending nuclear plants' life-span

#122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

German here, but I'll be a bit lazy and refer to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_Germany . I quickly skimmed over it and I think it touches the history well. From my personal perspective, I can definitely relate being nuclear skeptic due to Chernobyl (I was 7 years old at the time) and basically constant demonstrations/problems with the end storage facility subject - for as long as I remember. Also, at…

> and that was also when the Atomausstieg was sealed by the new Schröder government which had the Greens in the coalition And after that, Schröder got his deserved chair on Nordstream AG and later Rosneft and Gazprom.

This is what rubs me most about the decision. Thanks to Germany the whole of Europe is now dependant on Russian gas, but at least a few politicians got promotions out of it right?

When my country joined the EU they were forced to decommission an old nuclear power plant. Before that we were a net exporter of electricity. There was talk about building a new plant to ensure energy security in the region and reduce dependence on Russia, but it never materialised.

If Germany - which most of the smaller countries look up to - did not make this decision our energy landscape would look very different today. Over the last winter we have seen energy prices go up 50% or more (electricity comes from Russian gas, and heating comes from Russian gas) and inflation in general is up over 10%. Maybe in rich Germany this is not such a big deal, but here where people do not earn so much it is.

Re: Germany mulls extending nuclear plants' life-span

#123
post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

After the Fukushima catastrophe, it was clear that the unknown unknows are worse than anticipated. Sad thing is, Germany should have pumped a whole lotta more money into renewables and their research.

Fukushima was not a case of unknown unknowns. That style of reactor requires active cooling to prevent meltdown, and the cooling failed. The consequences of the cooling system failing were known, as were the vulnerabilities of the cooling system. They just didn’t add enough safeguards/didn’t account for the backup failing. There’s an argument that you can’t add enough safeguards to account for all possible ways an ac…

Clearly we think alike. Glad to see someone else pointing out to Luddites the folly of comparing modern nuclear tech to the tech of the 1970s. Using the Hindenburg vs airplanes is a perfect equivalent.

Re: Germany mulls extending nuclear plants' life-span

#124
post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Interesting question. I had thought batteries were still orders of magnitude more expensive than nuclear, but just looked up some numbers to try and get an idea. Caveat, these are just numbers I've looked up; they look reasonable to me, but I'm no expert, so could well be making a mistake here. Also I'm just looking at capital costs, not operation. From what I can find, the capital cost of a new nuclear plant is some…

It's also just not a matter of cost but supply. Even if you had the money for enough batteries to meet storage requirements for a fully green grid there is almost no chance you could manufacture enough cells. For the forseeable future all cell production is going to go into cars because Tesla has fat enough margins to absorb increases in battery costs while utility scale storage can't.

Tesla is putting significant new investment into their energy business. Since they now have almost every major battery manufacturer globally doing business with them, they can shift to the less automotive grade chemistry for their stationary energy storage (power packs and mega packs).

Elon’s literal words mention this: https://www.utilitydive.com/news/musk-vows-to-accelerate-tes...

Re: Germany mulls extending nuclear plants' life-span

#125
post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The historical experience of Chernobyl is not remotely relevant to modern reactors that are (by design) unable to melt down. Look at the pebble bed reactors, or the smr reactors from nuscale, or the chinese molten salt reactor designs. These are all using new technology to make meltdown next to or completely impossible. Nuscale is calling their smr reactors "walk away safe" in that you could just abandon them and the…

> reactors that are (by design) unable to melt down. I believe part of the problem is that nuclear power proponents were claiming that nuclear power is safe before Chernobyl. Then Chernobyl happened. Then proponents were claiming that that happened due to the way Chernobyl was designed, that the Western designs were entirely different, and that it couldn't happen. Then it did happen in Fukushima. People don't care ab…

It's worth pointing out (again) that Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station is older than Chernobyl Nuclear Power Station. It's not at all surprising that they would both fail in much the same manner, even in the face of promises that newer reactors can't.

Re: Germany mulls extending nuclear plants' life-span

#126
post #75
post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The historical experience of Chernobyl is not remotely relevant to modern reactors that are (by design) unable to melt down. Look at the pebble bed reactors, or the smr reactors from nuscale, or the chinese molten salt reactor designs. These are all using new technology to make meltdown next to or completely impossible. Nuscale is calling their smr reactors "walk away safe" in that you could just abandon them and the…

What about Fukushima? And modern reactors have to be built first. How long does it take if we look how long the berlin airport took or Stuttgart 21 will take.

[deleted]

Re: Germany mulls extending nuclear plants' life-span

#127
post #124
post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's also just not a matter of cost but supply. Even if you had the money for enough batteries to meet storage requirements for a fully green grid there is almost no chance you could manufacture enough cells. For the forseeable future all cell production is going to go into cars because Tesla has fat enough margins to absorb increases in battery costs while utility scale storage can't.

Tesla is putting significant new investment into their energy business. Since they now have almost every major battery manufacturer globally doing business with them, they can shift to the less automotive grade chemistry for their stationary energy storage (power packs and mega packs). Elon’s literal words mention this: https://www.utilitydive.com/news/musk-vows-to-accelerate-tes...

Just because they will start using LFP for stationary storage doesn't mean they also won't consume all of the LFP capacity for cars and starve out stationary storage again. They already used LFP for all the China built M3s and started shipping those same M3s to non-Chinese markets. Right now all signs point to this continuing. Margins on cars are much better, right now cell supply is so constrained but demand for Teslas is so high they only manufacture the highest spec SKUs. If there are more cells they will go into producing first lower spec cars and then finally stationary packs will get whatever is left (if any).

Re: Germany mulls extending nuclear plants' life-span

#128
post #12

I know this article isn't great, but is there anyone on HN who lives in Germany who could explain why there's such a scepticism of Nuclear power there? I'm from the UK and we have largely transitioned away from Nuclear for one clear reason - there was no political appetite to spend a tonne of money on an expensive form of energy that wasn't likely to pay off in the current parliamentary term. The german response to N…

We still have not found a place to store the waste. No one wants to live near a reactor so there are not really any place to build them (NIMBY). It also turns out that it is quite expensive when considering all costs like dismantling and insurance. Germany also does not mine uranium any more since 2021, so needs to buy them from other countries so you will have again dependencies on other countries. And then there is…

> We still have not found a place to store the waste.

Properly designed reactors don't make any waste: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_reprocessing

> not mine uranium any more since 2021, so needs to buy them

A https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Breeder_reactor plus the above mentioned technology reduces the need for Uranium by around 98%, so no need to buy any.

This is a solved problem, any issues are financial and emotional, not technical.

Re: Germany mulls extending nuclear plants' life-span

#129
post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not like there are no options for storage, pumped hydrostorage works well in Germany, and building pumped storage plus solar makes more financial sense than fission. Nuclear plants just take too long to plan and build, and are extremely expensive to build and tear down.

Nothing stops Germany from building pumped hydrostorage rather than gas pipelines. Every time nuclear get discussed people jump between either hydrostorage or green hydrogen, but when people start discussing turning off the gas from Russia, there seems to be very little interests to actually replace gas with storage. The few calculations I have read over hydrostorage is that the amount of damns and land needed to rep…

Germany is not Austria nor Switzerland. There are no mountains to pump up the water to. The heights are ridiculous here. 9-15m, compared to 200-800m

Re: Germany mulls extending nuclear plants' life-span

#130
post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Both were managed incompetently. That won't change even with modern reactors.

The difference being that incompetent management of a modern reactor cannot lead to a meltdown.

Fukushima
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