FWIW, my point isn't that crypto is doomed and entirely useless - I have a more nuanced opinion (tho no position) but that's not why I'm commenting. I also don't mean to be giving advice to anyway, just sharing opinions while it's on topic. My point is that a whole damn lot of my age group peers have drunk the Kool-Aid that crypto is the only game in town and that there is no alternative, which is silly to be respectful, and foolish to be less so.
No one rational would argue there is no opportunity there, there's tremendous trading opportunity in any market and it only goes up (as well as the risk) the more volatile and unregulated it is. There's also tremendous opportunity to make money in the Turkish market, Russian ones these days I bet will mint millionaires. That doesn't say anything regarding if it's a good idea or not to partake, let alone to buy, pray and hodl.
>that is what most retail are buying.
That kills your opportunity, going to the crowded asset isn't exactly good for you, it just increases your cost basis and reduces your earnings or dividend yield (not that you get one with most cryptos). It's good if you're trading and have an edge in that game tho, but that's not what people I know do when they buy crypto for the long haul or gamble for the short term.
>if i invest in stocks, at best i will get 2x after 5 years, at worst i will be buying at the peak of the everything bubble
That seems to be the general theme. Pessimistic outlook on the best case for stock with an optimistic outlook for the best case in crypto while ignoring it's worst case. Also while ignoring the monumental amount of fraud and open scheming in crypto (CC: all the influencers and their literally worthless NFTs, the rugs, the thefts, the bot-phishing), doesn't exactly scream "rational, not a bubble market".
Why not realistically looking about the worst case for both rather than focus on the best case for one? For crypto it's possibly getting offramps rugged by governments or even simply the market changing it's mind - with no intrinsic value there's basically no floor. In both cases you get wiped entirely. For stocks there'll always be a floor as they represent stakes in the actual economy, real companies with real balance and earnings sheet. Worst case historically is a -90%, but that went with the great depression and famine, you'll have bigger worries. A 2008 style historic crisis is a mere -50%.
I think owning crypto makes sense, but I can't understand the rationale behind being all-in crypto with significant life savings which I see a lot. If it's really gonna overtake the entire fiat system, you'll be just fine even without risking to lose everything you own in the even it's a dud and doesn't overtake the financial system.