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Cryptonomicon: Among the Bitcoin maximalists

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Re: Cryptonomicon: Among the Bitcoin maximalists

#91
post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But, isn't standard Bitcoin completely traceable, once you move funds out of your wallet to fiat? Can't they track you down retroactively after you make that one transaction?

Tracking you down retroactively is very different from freezing your bank account so you miss your rent payment. Also, generally, no, fiat-currency cash transactions are not completely traceable, and in practice there doesn't seem to be a Bitcoin-oriented equivalent of https://cdn.occrp.org/projects/suisse-secrets-interactive/ , at any rate not yet.

GNU Taler electronic scrip[0] caught my eye awhile back.

It's supposedly anonymous to the payer, but traceable to the payee. The idea being to provide privacy for consumers, while allowing governments traceability for tax purposes. It acts like a gift card and reminds me of the Chiemgauer[1], a very interesting regional scrip that traces back to Freigeld[2].

While GNU Taler seems to be focused on anonymous consumption, the Chiemgauer is a balanced electronic medium of exchange. It doesn't have the privacy aspect of the Taler, as far as I know.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GNU_Taler

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chiemgauer

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freigeld

Re: Cryptonomicon: Among the Bitcoin maximalists

#92
post #65
post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As it turns out, moving money from one group to another† is pretty useful in modern society. It's really all that money is good for, after all. Some of my comments from the last week and a half about what Bitcoin is good for: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30469595 when your country's central bank suspends electronic cash transfers, suspends the foreign exchange market, limits cash withdrawals, and prohibits th…

Money is the flow of utility (1st derivative). Flow of money is 2nd derivative. The uses you indicate are probably 10% of the use case, the remaining 90% is money laundering.

I don't think your derivatives are correct.

I'm curious where you get the 90% estimate? In https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30446703 I looked at the Chainalysis study at https://blog.chainalysis.com/reports/2022-crypto-crime-repor... (use Reader Mode), in which they found that Russian "illicit and risky" businesses including money laundering accounted for 0.004% of (on-chain) Bitcoin transaction volume. (They included even coins that had been through mixers in their "risky" category, so this is presumably a vast overestimate.)

Where do you think all this money laundering is happening geographically, and why do you think there's so much of it?

Even if it were 90%, I'm not sure why the 10% of users using Bitcoin to do things like keep their savings from being frozen should care about that other 90%. Do you want them to sacrifice themselves and their families to reduce the liquidity available for money laundering by 10%? If 90% of oxygen is consumed by pathogenic bacteria, should you stop consuming oxygen?

Re: Cryptonomicon: Among the Bitcoin maximalists

#93
post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I find you utterly un-compelling. And I say that as someone who has literally spent hundreds of bitcoin at one of the ONLY points in bitcoin's history when it was primarily used as a genuine medium of exchange (silk road). Simple example - show me a method of handling reconciliation of fraud/contract dispute for bitcoin that doesn't fall back on the legal systems of those government systems you're so happy to rail ag…

I bet you wish you hadn't spent those hundreds of bitcoin, don't you? As I said in the last post I linked, Bitcoin handles a few billion dollars a year in cross-border remittances, largely to family members in Venezuela; this suggests that it's keeping several million people alive. I hear there are still darknet markets around, too. So there are current uses as a genuine medium of exchange that are very significant.…

> I bet you wish you hadn't spent those hundreds of bitcoin, don't you?

No - not really. The point of them wasn't to hold them with an expectation that they would become unreasonably valuable (speculation). The point of them was to make an exchange for a good that was otherwise hard to acquire (in this case - weed, before legalization).

You'll notice that's not something most of you "crypto advocates" ever actually do. You know, the sole purpose of a currency - exchanging it for goods and services. Usually you treat it purely as a speculative asset, to be exchanged for another currency that actually can be traded for goods and services.

> Neither do gold, silver, copper, or greenbacks, and they work pretty well as currencies.

Of fucking course they do - the government taxes exchanges on them at unreasonably high rates (gold has a 28% long term capital gains tax, vs the normal 15-20%.) precisely because they understand that they're used as value stores (proxies for currency).

And that's precisely my point, really - the government WILL NOT protect you from fraud in the crypto space if it doesn't have a way to regulate and mediate the costs of doing so (such as tax derived income from the exchange). In which case - all of your above points become moot, because now you're right back to asking the government to enforce your contract or bill of sale. Remind me again how crypto is going to protect me from that government...?

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edit - if you're actually interested, you can read more of my thoughts here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29330879&p=2#29331460

I was there when MTGox blew up, I'm acutely aware of the risks of fraud in this space, outside of the current pump and dump fraud that's frankly rampant in the crypto world. Your finance 2.0 looks a whole lot like cooked books and bankers who run away with the cash once they have it, with an unhealthy dose of gambling tossed on top - it's not pretty.

Re: Cryptonomicon: Among the Bitcoin maximalists

#94
post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The primary use is now speculation - full stop.

The distinction between store of value and speculation is rather fuzzy IMO. Is putting money into gold for savings (because an actual savings bank account currently not only loses money in real but even in nominal terms) speculation as well?

How does a bank account lose money in nominal terms? You get paid interest

Re: Cryptonomicon: Among the Bitcoin maximalists

#95
post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I bet you wish you hadn't spent those hundreds of bitcoin, don't you? As I said in the last post I linked, Bitcoin handles a few billion dollars a year in cross-border remittances, largely to family members in Venezuela; this suggests that it's keeping several million people alive. I hear there are still darknet markets around, too. So there are current uses as a genuine medium of exchange that are very significant.…

> I bet you wish you hadn't spent those hundreds of bitcoin, don't you? No - not really. The point of them wasn't to hold them with an expectation that they would become unreasonably valuable (speculation). The point of them was to make an exchange for a good that was otherwise hard to acquire (in this case - weed, before legalization). You'll notice that's not something most of you "crypto advocates" ever actually d…

> Of fucking course [gold, silver, copper, and greenbacks work pretty well as currencies] - the government taxes exchanges on them at unreasonably high rates (gold has a 28% long term capital gains tax, vs the normal 15-20%.)

Gold, silver, and copper have worked pretty well as currencies for 2700 years under a variety of taxation schemes, of which by far the most common was "no taxation", which I believe is the case here. Exchanges of greenbacks are not taxed at unreasonably high rates anywhere I know of. Moreover, it isn't clear how taxing the exchange of capital gains on certain commodities at an unreasonably high rate would help it function as a currency; perhaps you mean that it stabilizes their value? But the value of the metals we're talking about is primarily determined by the world market.

It is of course correct that some governments will refuse to referee disputes without imposing what you describe as "unreasonably high" taxes. Historically, though, many governments have successfully resolved disputes without imposing confiscatory taxes or demanding far-reaching extrajudicial powers against people outside their jurisdiction, and we have every reason to believe that such governments will continue to exist, even if you don't have the luck of having one yourself.

You can always emigrate, you know. But possibly not if you need your government's permission to take your savings with you.

I agree with you about the risks of fraud and the dismaying ubiquity of pump-and-dump scams, and I agree that if you do not hold your bitcoins yourself they are just as vulnerable as if you left them in a bank—a lesson missed by most current "crypto advocates," who keep their coins in their Binance accounts. I am sorry to hear about your loss to the MtGox theft.

Re: Cryptonomicon: Among the Bitcoin maximalists

#96
post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The distinction between store of value and speculation is rather fuzzy IMO. Is putting money into gold for savings (because an actual savings bank account currently not only loses money in real but even in nominal terms) speculation as well?

How does a bank account lose money in nominal terms? You get paid interest

It depends on where you live. In some countries it's common for monthly fees to exceed the interest you get paid. My corporate bank account ended up in the hands of a colleciton agency that way!

Re: Cryptonomicon: Among the Bitcoin maximalists

#97
post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As it turns out, moving money from one group to another† is pretty useful in modern society. It's really all that money is good for, after all. Some of my comments from the last week and a half about what Bitcoin is good for: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30469595 when your country's central bank suspends electronic cash transfers, suspends the foreign exchange market, limits cash withdrawals, and prohibits th…

But can you do it without going to jail when sanctions or similar are in place against you? Technically, you can, but you face the same consequences if you were able to get a wire or SEPA transaction through. That's the point. The tech doesn't change the policy or the law. You still go to jail or your country gets shelled. Miners get chased out of countries. Russia is reportedly exploring crypto for transfers if they…

I always found it sickly charming that they call that method of hacking "rubber-hose cryptanalysis"

Re: Cryptonomicon: Among the Bitcoin maximalists

#98
post #21

That's a great read. What's striking, in his description of the conference, is the total lack of any connection to real world activity. None of these people seem to be trying to get enough Bitcoin together to build a steel mill or a wafer fab or a smartphone factory or, indeed, any kind of startup that does something. Bitcoin is expected to somehow generate wealth without actually doing anything that generates revenu…

"Bitcoin Donations To Ukrainian Army Surpass $4 Million" https://archive.is/9YTVe

Ukrainian army is provably infested with neo-Nazis. Right-libs gonna right-lib.

Re: Cryptonomicon: Among the Bitcoin maximalists

#99
post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Degradation of food? Housing? Do you know what people ate when Bach was alive? Or in what conditions most people lived?

Well we are approaching half of americans having a chronic disease and a large part of that is from what we eat along with lack of exercise. it does seem like we have a degradation of the nutrients in our food supply as well. https://www.fightchronicdisease.org/sites/default/files/docs... https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/vanishing-...

Surely this is a problem of supply and not demand.

If I go to Safeway and don't find something healthy, I will nevertheless buy something for the simple reason that I am hungry. Want healthier food in a society? Sell healthier food in a society.

It's not the job of consumers, nor is there any reasonable communication channel, to dictate what is put on shelves. They can only provide feedback based on what is already there. If they have a limited selection, you will receive a censored signal, and you cannot judge the outcome based on counterfactuals of what they would have bought if something else was in the pool of offered products.

Above describes the folly of "demand-based" economic thinking. If there was truly an infinite supply and infinite variety of products, it makes sense to consider demand-based perspectives as actually expressing consumer desires. But it doesn't do that -- it only expresses preferences among the finite selection available, and you can very quickly sink into a feedback loop that encourages unhealthy diets by conflating the two perspectives.

Re: Cryptonomicon: Among the Bitcoin maximalists

#100
post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I bet you wish you hadn't spent those hundreds of bitcoin, don't you? No - not really. The point of them wasn't to hold them with an expectation that they would become unreasonably valuable (speculation). The point of them was to make an exchange for a good that was otherwise hard to acquire (in this case - weed, before legalization). You'll notice that's not something most of you "crypto advocates" ever actually d…

> Of fucking course [gold, silver, copper, and greenbacks work pretty well as currencies] - the government taxes exchanges on them at unreasonably high rates (gold has a 28% long term capital gains tax, vs the normal 15-20%.) Gold, silver, and copper have worked pretty well as currencies for 2700 years under a variety of taxation schemes, of which by far the most common was "no taxation", which I believe is the case…

Unless you can find a contractor who will remodel your bathroom for gold (or god help them, bitcoin), or a food vendor who will take gold instead of your local currency (at an equivalent rate) then when you actually need goods and services, you convert to a local currency, which is taxed.

In exchange for that taxation, you can write a contract that says "I will give you X gold for Y dollars" and expect the government to back that contract. It will provide legal avenues for you to use the services they have available to recoup funds in the event of fraud (up to and including physical force and imprisonment, which almost all governments keep a tight monopoly on). They tax you because providing those services incurs a cost, and they need a way to continue offering them. Historically, you could make exchanges in those assets, but there was often zero governmental protection for doing so (sometimes things considered morally harmful were punished by the government, such as theft, but they certainly wouldn't agree to do things like enforce contract disputes for free - at best you get a legal wager [see: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compurgation] where you both pay up front to be heard. At other times courts were reserved to disputes above a certain value, or lower classes were prohibited from making a legally valid contract in the first place, precisely because enforcement was expensive)

If bitcoin makes that taxation impossible (or even unreasonably difficult), and it's possible to freely trade without recourse (no freezing, no transaction reversal, no monetary control at all) two options are present:

1) Stop resolving disputes for bitcoin (ex: China).

2) Add taxation, while adding back forms of control to make the costs reasonable and predictable, to match taxes.

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Long point short - Sure, 2700 years ago you could trade shiny metal for things without taxes, but it was "at your own risk", under a governmental structure that had more leeway for you enforcing it yourself (no prohibition or monopoly on violence and imprisonment). Those are not the conditions we find ourselves in today.

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