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Radiation spikes in Chernobyl

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Re: Radiation spikes in Chernobyl

#41

Post by yabones »

teeray wrote: post #37
sschueller wrote: post #17

What strategic purpose would taking Chernobyl have other than maybe securing the site and preventing someone from blowing a hole in the sarcophagus?

It still has functioning reactors, so I’d imagine it’s the same as the time-old military strategy: secure the supply lines. In modern times, electricity is vital to an enemy’s defensive capabilities, so depriving them of it forces them to use generators with exhaustible fuel supplies.

The last reactor to shutdown was Unit 3 in December 2000. The whole facility has been undergoing cleanup and decommissioning since.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chernobyl_Nuclear_Power_Plant#...

Re: Radiation spikes in Chernobyl

#42

Post by ComputerGuru »

perihelions wrote: post #27

Tangentially, if you appreciate being able to read raw, unfiltered OSINT like OP (@OAlexanderDK) dug up, you'd be interested to know Twitter mistakenly suspended his account twice in the past three days [0] -- one among a large number of legitimate OSINT people covering Ukraine. The existence of this kind of HN thread is fragile. You can also read Twitter Site Integrity's apology and response [1], or independent repo…

> You can also read Twitter Site Integrity's apology and response [1]

What apology? Vague explanation but no even “sorry for the inconvenience” at the link you shared:

We’re closely investigating — but mass reporting is not a factor here.

A small number of human errors as part of our work to proactively address manipulated media resulted in these incorrect enforcements. We’re fixing the issue and reaching out directly to the affected folks.

Re: Radiation spikes in Chernobyl

#43

Post by perihelions »

ComputerGuru wrote: post #42
perihelions wrote: post #27

Tangentially, if you appreciate being able to read raw, unfiltered OSINT like OP (@OAlexanderDK) dug up, you'd be interested to know Twitter mistakenly suspended his account twice in the past three days [0] -- one among a large number of legitimate OSINT people covering Ukraine. The existence of this kind of HN thread is fragile. You can also read Twitter Site Integrity's apology and response [1], or independent repo…

> You can also read Twitter Site Integrity's apology and response [1] What apology? Vague explanation but no even “sorry for the inconvenience” at the link you shared: We’re closely investigating — but mass reporting is not a factor here. A small number of human errors as part of our work to proactively address manipulated media resulted in these incorrect enforcements. We’re fixing the issue and reaching out directl…

The "reaching out" part included directed apologies. (Is this really the important part?)

https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1496452673008279552 ("...we apologize for any inconvenience this may have caused")

Re: Radiation spikes in Chernobyl

#44

Post by jka »

capableweb wrote: post #22
perihelions wrote: post #5

- "Data from the automated radiation monitoring system of the exclusion zone, which is available online," Where is this official source?

Other comments mention some sources, here are two more: - EU-EC JRC - Radioactivity Environmental Monitoring - https://remap.jrc.ec.europa.eu/Advanced.aspx (not granular enough to detect anything) - SafeCast - https://map.safecast.org/?y=51.361&x=30.123&z=11&l=0&m=0 (does detect high levels right now)

The Safecast link displays higher radioactivity levels within some of the core road network in and around Chernobyl relative to road networks further away - that's to be expected, I think? If so, it doesn't necessarily indicate (nor disprove) an upwards trend.

The EU-EC JRC map does provide visibility into recent historic data and trend charts; currently neither of the three nearest stations (UA33231, BY33124, UA33236) seem to indicate an upwards trend in the surrounding environment over the past 48 hours.

As you say, granularity is important - perhaps there's something going on at a very localized level in-or-around the sensors at the Chernobyl nuclear storage facility; whatever it is doesn't yet seem to indicate any broader effect, as far as I can tell. It's certainly worth staying wary, but also worth being careful about how the situation's communicated and how people react to the news.

Re: Radiation spikes in Chernobyl

#45

Post by brimble »

vlovich123 wrote: post #31
jaywalk wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All reactors at Chernobyl have been shutdown since 2000. I have been amazed lately at how many people are unaware of this and think Chernobyl is still an operating nuclear power plant.

I had the opposite perception and thought no reactors were active since the explosion.

It was long one of those "surprising fact" sorts of things.

Re: Radiation spikes in Chernobyl

#46

Post by Jeff_Brown »

keewee7 wrote: post #32
sschueller wrote: post #17

What strategic purpose would taking Chernobyl have other than maybe securing the site and preventing someone from blowing a hole in the sarcophagus?

The posh ruling elite in Moscow and StP want to deceive the West into thinking Russia is a mad dog that is too dangerous to bother. They want to scare the West from imposing total economic sanctions. They want to scare the West from supplying the Ukrainian resistance. Always remember Russia is a rational actor no matter how much Putin and Lavrov are fear mongering about sanctions leading to a nuclear WW3. The French…

I wish I knew how to tell.

In game theory there are games that the crazy person wins. "Chicken" is the most famous. If both players are crazy, both lose. Unfortunately the discipline offers no way of diagnosing insanity. Committing to what looks like a crazy plan can be rational. Putin's speech on Monday certainly seemed unhinged, but he might be a good actor.

Re: Radiation spikes in Chernobyl

#48

Post by throwawayboise »

yabones wrote: post #41
teeray wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It still has functioning reactors, so I’d imagine it’s the same as the time-old military strategy: secure the supply lines. In modern times, electricity is vital to an enemy’s defensive capabilities, so depriving them of it forces them to use generators with exhaustible fuel supplies.

The last reactor to shutdown was Unit 3 in December 2000. The whole facility has been undergoing cleanup and decommissioning since. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chernobyl_Nuclear_Power_Plant#...

Drifting slightly off topic but it always seemed amazing to me that they kept the other reactors running even in the immediate aftermath of the Unit 4 explosion. Literally just down the hall, units 1, 2, and 3 ran for years afterwards. These were all manually controlled reactors that needed humans in the control room. No "working from home "on these.

Re: Radiation spikes in Chernobyl

#50

Post by awb »

nuccy wrote: post #3

Russians came from Belarus and with their tanks disrupt the radioactive soil and create dust [1]. The internal systems and the reactors themselves are in nominal state without changes. 1. https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-says-chernobyl-radia...

What are the environmental / health risks of this radioactive dust getting kicked up?
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