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Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

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Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#781

Post by marttt »

beloch wrote: post #703
dudeinhawaii wrote: post #428

I'm genuinely curious at what point a bully threatening you with MAD can be stopped if you value the existence of your own civilization? Say Russian conquers all of Ukraine and moves troops to the Polish border and parks some tanks a bit inside. What then? Strongly worded essays? If Russia isn't raining hell on Poland, then NATO is forced to .. apply sanctions, make threats, but take no action since the escalation an…

Ukraine is not a NATO member, but Poland is. If Russia attacks a member of NATO then all members of NATO are obligated to join in defence militarily . Russia can attack non-NATO countries and intimidate NATO into doing nothing, but to attack a NATO member would automatically bring the whole alliance into the war. The whole point of alliances like NATO is to prevent countries from being picked off by a bully the way U…

Former journalist from Estonia here. Our media republished a 1994 speech given by late president of Estonia Lennart Meri at a banquet in Hamburg, Germany. Vladimir Putin, a then internationally unknown politician from St Petersburg, was also among the listeners -- and demonstratively walked out of the room during Meri's speech, as reported by Deutsche Welle [1]. Quoting DW:

"On February 25, 1994, Putin was also in attendance. One distinguished guest, then-President of Estonia Lennart Meri, gave a speech. Putin did something that has never happened at this ceremony: he got up and left. "With his legs straight [ed.: in a marching stance], throwing a contemptuous glance at the host, he left the hall, every step accompanied by the creaking of the parquet," according to a correspondent for the German magazine Zeit. "His exit was followed by whispers. Who is he? What's his problem?"

What exactly did Meri say that so annoyed Putin? The speech reads like a prophecy of what happened 20 years later in Crimea. And Putin's reaction shows that he sent a clear signal to the West.

The Estonian president referred to a paper from the foreign ministry in Moscow: "It notes that the problem of ethnic Russian groups in countries neighboring Russia cannot be solved by diplomatic means alone." Other means were conceivable for Moscow, Meri concluded. He warned against Russia's "neo-imperialist policy" and appealed to integrate Eastern European countries, including Ukraine, into the "democratic world."

Lennart Meri was a former filmmaker, literary translator, writer and IMO a world class intellectual with excellent speeches. For anyone interested, I google-translated this Hamburg 1994 speech to English [2]. The original source in Estonian is also present on the homepage of President's Office [3].

1: https://www.dw.com/en/vladimir-putins-infamous-history-in-ha...

2: https://zerobin.net/?5938a7875752194a#kVyn/9uj46bUH+M1z7rk+w...

3: https://vp1992-2001.president.ee/est/k6ned/K6ne.asp?ID=4236

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#782

Post by hef19898 »

trashtester wrote: post #550
jltsiren wrote: post #523

Earlier quoted context omitted.

European countries have not neglected anything. The current state of things is by design. Europe used to be full of empires waging destructive wars all over the world. After two world wars, people had had enough. The predecessors of the EU were created to tame the former empires. To make them mutually dependent and act like ordinary countries. It worked, and Western Europe has enjoyed a lifetime of peace, which is un…

First of all, I suppose I need to say that I'm European, living in a country with a very tiny military force. I understand why Germany, in particular, does not want to be a strong military power anymore. Britain and France seem less reluctant, probably taking some pride from standing up to Hitler in 1939, and this contributing to them seeing their armed forces primarily as defensive instruments. (Disregarding their l…

Well, the German army was significantly downsized since the end of the Cold War and Reunification. Once Germany had thousands of modern tanks for example. Now we are down to fraction of that. We called it the Peace Dividend, not sure if it actually saved any money so.

The reason why the German Army was that big was the USSR and Warsaw pact. They were supposed to check any Soviet advance long enough, preferably before the Rhine, for the bulk of the US forces to show up after being shipped over the Atlantic. It would suck if that becomes necessary again, the high level of militarization during the Cold War was decidedly not a good thing.

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#783

Post by mopsi »

chrisco255 wrote: post #755
valzam wrote: post #672

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This sounds reasonable in theory but IMHO is centered in a completely outdated worldview. What European state is an "enemy" of Russia? What European state would attack Russia with military force? It's paranoid thinking by a madman. Russia could have used it's considerable natural resources and top-notch science education to grow their economy and become a prosperous nation but corruption and cronyism at home prevente…

NATO is a de facto enemy of Russia. The entire point of the alliance is to defend against Russia. That includes most of the EU.

This doesn't really answer who you'd expect to attack Russia. Finland? Norway? Poland? Spain? France?

Might as well start preparing for the Mexican invasion of the United States.

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#784

Post by vkou »

csee wrote: post #662
baybal2 wrote: post #568

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The cold war high side estimate was 50M if the West lets USSR to expend the whole of its arsenal on USA standing, doing nothing. Recent figures I read were 20M-40M for worst case scenarios. Realistically, a coordinated all in launch is ~1000 warheads, with 400 of them megaton scale in R36 MIRVs from West Siberia. First strike is only possible with computerised launch infrastructure operational. Beheading the command…

Why would only 20-40M die after 1000 nukes?

To be glib: Hopium.

To be frank: That number's missing a zero.

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#785

Post by matkoniecz »

throwawaylinux wrote: post #624
dudeinhawaii wrote: post #428

I'm genuinely curious at what point a bully threatening you with MAD can be stopped if you value the existence of your own civilization? Say Russian conquers all of Ukraine and moves troops to the Polish border and parks some tanks a bit inside. What then? Strongly worded essays? If Russia isn't raining hell on Poland, then NATO is forced to .. apply sanctions, make threats, but take no action since the escalation an…

I'm genuinely curious do people really want to get (presumably other people's sons) into war over this? I hope this doesn't sound flippant or taking light of Russia's actions because it's not intended to be. But what is the decision process behind supporting a choice to start sending other people to kill and die for your desired outcome here? And do you also believe wars should be initiated against China to liberate…

I am from Poland and now I need to seriously consider possibility that Poland within 10 years or 20 may be under Russian occupation. Again.

That is not a high risk, but becomes a real possibility. Rather than insane rambling and pure fiction. Or something appearing to be a dark pessimism.

This is not situation that I like.

So, in the end

- (1) I may not have option to choose

- (2) I would prefer to fight Russians in Estonia (Baltic countries are likely the next target) than in my own country

> would you still believe that if you were to be the first on the beach with a rifle?

I am not going to pretend that I know how I will behave in situation that is extremely beyond what ever happened to me.

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#786

Post by arisAlexis »

lordnacho wrote: post #477
dudeinhawaii wrote: post #428

I'm genuinely curious at what point a bully threatening you with MAD can be stopped if you value the existence of your own civilization? Say Russian conquers all of Ukraine and moves troops to the Polish border and parks some tanks a bit inside. What then? Strongly worded essays? If Russia isn't raining hell on Poland, then NATO is forced to .. apply sanctions, make threats, but take no action since the escalation an…

There's this concept in game theory that it's sometimes worth it to hurt yourself in order to hurt an uncooperative player. If you are always thinking "how do I minimize harm to myself" you get salamied to death. Same as in a poker game, you can't fold every time someone raises big, just because you don't know which times he actually has good cards. If you do he ends up with all your chips. Other thing is about MAD.…

> Same as in a poker game, you can't fold every time someone raises big

As Samy Farha put it excellently "in order to live you must be willing to die". Because poker is war and life :)

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#787

Post by hef19898 »

kcb wrote: post #738
vkou wrote: post #563

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Similarly, had NATO deployed 500k soldiers fully armed with modern weaponry in Poland, Lithuania and Rumania as Putin was building up his forces, and added a warning that Ukraine would be granted instant membership to NATO if he didn't pull back from the border, he probably would have pulled back from the border. Had NATO forces been deployed in Ukraine four months ago, nobody would be making any nuclear threats to…

NATO forces don't deploy in a foreign country. That's not how it works.

Tell that the Afghans. NATO could have easily deployed there, or just EU forces. I think people in charge still had hopes to avoid an escalation. And to not get their own troops into the firing line immediately. Deploying troops to Ukraine also limits your options, because it means full, and preemptive, commitment to war. At place and time where the opponent had much more time to properly prepare.

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#788

Post by freddie_mercury »

beloch wrote: post #703
dudeinhawaii wrote: post #428

I'm genuinely curious at what point a bully threatening you with MAD can be stopped if you value the existence of your own civilization? Say Russian conquers all of Ukraine and moves troops to the Polish border and parks some tanks a bit inside. What then? Strongly worded essays? If Russia isn't raining hell on Poland, then NATO is forced to .. apply sanctions, make threats, but take no action since the escalation an…

Ukraine is not a NATO member, but Poland is. If Russia attacks a member of NATO then all members of NATO are obligated to join in defence militarily . Russia can attack non-NATO countries and intimidate NATO into doing nothing, but to attack a NATO member would automatically bring the whole alliance into the war. The whole point of alliances like NATO is to prevent countries from being picked off by a bully the way U…

There was no talk of Ukraine joining NATO heating up. Russia started deploying troops to the Ukraine border in March 2021. The excuse back then wasn't about Ukraine joining NATO; the excuse was that it was mobilizing troops to protect itself from a NATO attack during the DEFENDER-21 annual exercise.

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#789

Post by pasabagi »

trashtester wrote: post #550
jltsiren wrote: post #523

Earlier quoted context omitted.

European countries have not neglected anything. The current state of things is by design. Europe used to be full of empires waging destructive wars all over the world. After two world wars, people had had enough. The predecessors of the EU were created to tame the former empires. To make them mutually dependent and act like ordinary countries. It worked, and Western Europe has enjoyed a lifetime of peace, which is un…

First of all, I suppose I need to say that I'm European, living in a country with a very tiny military force. I understand why Germany, in particular, does not want to be a strong military power anymore. Britain and France seem less reluctant, probably taking some pride from standing up to Hitler in 1939, and this contributing to them seeing their armed forces primarily as defensive instruments. (Disregarding their l…

I guess the tricky thing about a military, as german history shows, is its cultural impact. Would the Nazi regime have been possible without Hindenburg? Would Hitler have become prominent without Ludendorf? Ludendorf and Hindenburg essentially created the stab-in-the-back idea. The outsize respect given to military figures, the allure of uniforms, the outsize rights and trust given to ex-soldiers - all these things made the nazis and their precursors very hard to push back on. When you think of organizations like the Freikorps, it's hard to avoid noticing the radicalizing effect of military service.

I would be more of a fan of a pan-EU force than a return to traditional national militaries.

Re: Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces

#790

Post by ed_balls »

interfixus wrote: post #567
rob74 wrote: post #434

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or, as Sting once sang, "I hope the Russians love their children too" - in this case, one particular Russian...

If that particular Russian is in fact an all-out psychopath, this concept may not apply.

but people around him are not.
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